Phillies Nation has already released two Opening Day lineup projections, and before the Phillies face Jacob deGrom and the Texas Rangers on March 30, two more predictions of what Rob Thomson’s season-opening lineup will look like are coming.
Of course, the Phillies will not have Bryce Harper on Opening Day, as the two-time National League MVP recovers from the Tommy John surgery that he underwent in November.
After the procedure, Jim Salisbury reported that Harper “could be back hitting competitively by mid-May.” The Phillies issued a more conservative timeline, suggesting that the 30-year-old could be back before the All-Star Break, which will run from July 10-13. Either way, Harper will almost certainly return as a DH before he’s able to play right field again.
Whenever it is Harper returns, the Phillies will have one of baseball’s deepest lineups. Here’s a projection about what the lineup will look like for Harper’s Opening Day in 2023:
No. 1: Kyle Schwarber, Left Field
We’ve projected that Schwarber will hit in the middle of the order in Harper’s absence, but Thomson has left the door open for him to return to the leadoff spot when the full lineup is together. Schwarber likes hitting leadoff, and there’s something to be said for getting him as many at-bats as possible — even if there aren’t always runners on in front of him — when he’s in the midst of one of his home run streaks. He may very well hit No. 2, but our guess is he is the primary leadoff hitter when Harper returns.
No. 2: Trea Turner, Shortstop
At Turner’s introductory press conference in December, Thomson said that “if you were to look in the dictionary, leadoff hitter, No. 2 hitter, his face would be on it.” He may serve both of those roles, leading off to open the season and hitting out of the second spot once Harper returns.
No. 3: J.T. Realmuto, Catcher
After the All-Star Break this past season, Realmuto slashed .307/.367/.583 with a .949 OPS. That type of production didn’t just re-cement his place as the best catcher in baseball, but it made him among the most valuable players at any position in the sport.
No. 4: Bryce Harper, DH
Before an errant Blake Snell pitch fractured Harper’s left thumb in late June, he had already done enough to earn his seventh career All-Star Game nod, hitting .318 with 15 home runs, 48 RBIs and a .985 OPS in 64 games. The fact that his elbow injury had limited him to only DHing may have ultimately prevented him from repeating as NL MVP, but he was putting up the type of numbers at the plate that were going to at least have him in the conversation.
No. 5: Nick Castellanos, Right Field
Make no mistake, if Castellanos doesn’t show signs of life at the plate early in the 2023 season, he probably won’t be hitting fifth by the time that Harper is ready to return to the lineup. Rhys Hoskins and potentially Alec Bohm are candidates to fill that role if Castellanos continues to perform how he did in 2022, a season that saw him post a .694 OPS. But between 2017 and 2021, Castellanos led baseball with 189 doubles. He has to bounce back, right?
No. 6: Rhys Hoskins, First Base
Whatever you think about Hoskins’ streakiness at the plate at times, if he’s hitting sixth in your lineup, you have one of the deepest lineups in the sport. Hoskins homered 30 times and drove in 79 runs in 2022, and in a contract year, it feels entirely possible he tops those numbers.
No. 7: Bryson Stott, Second Base
Stott slashed .276/.331/.404 with a .735 OPS following the All-Star Break. He’s probably a better fit at either No. 8 or No. 9 in the lineup, but having him hit seventh helps to keep you from having two consecutive lefties at the bottom of the order, and three straight overall if Schwarber is hitting at the top of the lineup.
No. 8: Alec Bohm, Third Base
Bohm drove in 72 runs and posted a .713 OPS in 2022, certainly an encouraging bounce back after a disastrous 2021 season. He’s never going to grade out well defensively at third base. But if the version of Bohm that was pulling the ball with authority and hit .434 last July can be unlocked a bit more consistently, he has All-Star caliber talent as a hitter.
No. 9: Brandon Marsh, Center Field
The most encouraging sign from Marsh after he was acquired by the Phillies is that his strikeout rate when down from 36.2% with the Los Angeles Angels to 29.7% after he started working with Kevin Long. Expectations should probably be tempered for Marsh, but if he plays excellent defense in center field and is a league average bat, that will make him a valuable player at a position without a ton of impact options.
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