Why the Phillies don’t view Andrew Painter as Aaron Nola’s replacement

CLEARWATER, Fla. — Aaron Nola could become a free agent at the end of the 2023 season if the team fails to sign him to a long-term extension by the end of spring training.

There are reasons for optimism. Multiple reports say that the two sides are talking and that there is motivation to get a deal done.

If Carlos Rodón’s six-year, $162 million deal signed with the Yankees as a free agent over the offseason is a starting point, Nola will likely sign the largest contract ever handed to a pitcher in team history, beating Cole Hamels’ six-year, $144 million extension signed in 2012.

Dombrowski won’t comment on the state of negotiations. The club typically does not give out public updates on contract negotiations with players, but the Phillies head of baseball operations did say at a Thursday news conference in Clearwater, “Aaron is a player that we want to keep in the organization for an extended time.”

But there’s another way of looking at this.

The Phillies will likely end this season with a luxury tax payroll over $250 million. They have seven players under a guaranteed contract through 2025. If Nola is re-signed, seven players will be making at least $20 million in 2024.

There is no upward limit to the Phillies payroll that we know about, but the Phillies probably do not prefer to have a high-priced player at every position. If most of the league was presented with the scenario of having a star like Nola scheduled to become a free agent at the end of the season and a phenom like Andrew Painter and top prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry on the rise, some could see that as a cost-saving opportunity rather than a chance to build.

Luckily for Phillies fans, the front office does not view Painter as Nola’s eventual replacement.

“I’m not very good on the speculative nature of those types of things, but I don’t think you ever have enough good players,” Dombrowski said. “If you’re in a position where Painter comes on and pitches tremendously — and no matter what happens this year, we think he’s going to have a tremendous major league career — but having Painter and Nola in our organization for years to come would be tremendous for us.”

Despite all the praise the young pitching prospect has received so far, it would be tough to ask a 21-year-old Painter to replace Nola at the top of the rotation in 2024. It may take him a couple seasons to reach the 200-inning mark, assuming health. Ranger Suárez and Taijuan Walker will also have to stay healthy and effective for the duration of the season. Zack Wheeler will have to continue pitching at the level he’s been at since signing with the Phillies. There’s also injury risk baked in to relying on young arms to fill innings.

While his league-leading innings workload since 2018 could be viewed as a concern in the context of a long-term deal, the Phillies could still comfortably expect Nola to throw around 200 innings throughout the remainder of his prime.

If Painter’s future truly does have no barring on Nola’s status, the only deterrent that could keep the Phillies and Nola from reaching a deal at any point is years and dollars. They could let this go to free agency and risk another team outbidding for his services.

There’s still plenty of time for a deal to get gone. If it does, Phillies fans can start dreaming about a Nola and Painter-led rotation for the foreseeable future.

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