Categories: Analysis

Trea Turner could be first Phillie since Juan Samuel to steal 50 bases

Trea Turner is entering his first season with the Phillies. (Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire)

Philadelphia Phillies fans have always had a penchant for speedsters. It’s why the phrase “Realmuto can run for days” will forever live in franchise lore. It’s why Roman Quinn was a fan favorite despite perennially underperforming at the plate. It’s what makes Jimmy Rollins’ historic 2007 season one for the ages. And it’s a major reason why they are so excited to see Trea Turner in a Phillies uniform this year.

Of course, speed is just one of the reasons John Middleton and Dave Dombrowski signed Turner to an 11 year/$300 million contract in the offseason. His lifetime .302 average and 124 home runs in eight seasons are two other big reasons why. But speed is perhaps the top tool that Turner possesses, and it’s what makes him one of the most dynamic players in the sport.

If Turner is not the fastest runner in the game today, he is certainly one of them. According to Statcast, his sprint speed of 30.7 feet per second was tops in the league in 2021. It dropped to 30.4 ft/sec in 2022, good for fifth fastest, but he crushed the rest of the league with 131 “bolts,” or runs above 30 ft/sec (Bobby Witt Jr. was the only other player in triple digits, with 107). A two-time stolen base champion, Turner’s 228 stolen bases since 2016 are tops in baseball. He has averaged 36 stolen bases in each full season of his career (the 2020 COVID-shortened season is excluded). Twice, he topped 40 stolen bases, with a career high 46 in 2017.

With the new rule changes taking effect this year, many people think he could easily steal 50 or 60 bases. Maybe more.

“I feel like the pressure’s on to steal like 60, 70 bases, something ridiculous,” Turner said in a March 3 appearance on MLB Network. “But for me I always want to score runs, so however many stolen bases we need as a team to score those runs, I think that’s [what’s] important to me. But it’s just being efficient and taking what they give us.”

Is it really “ridiculous” to expect Turner to steal 60 or 70 bases this year?

He certainly has the speed to do it, and were this another era — the pre-analytics decades of the 1980’s and ‘90’s, for instance — he probably would. He might not have reached the 100 stolen base levels of Rickey Henderson and Vince Coleman, who were reported to run at 31 and 31.6 feet per second, respectively. But it’s not farfetched to think he could have hit Tim Raines’ level of 90 stolen bases. He’s that fast.

Of course, times have changed, and base stealing is down significantly since the turn of the century. However, with new rule changes like the pitch clock, a limit on pick-off attempts, and the larger bases, there’s reason to believe that we are about to witness a great resurgence in base stealing. As Jayson Stark recently reported in The Athletic, stolen bases were up 73% through the first two weeks of spring training compared to last spring. It’s probably a leap to think that stolen bases will go up by that much once the regular season begins, but for the sake of argument, if Turner increases his career average by 73%, he would steal 62 bases this year.

A more realistic expectation is that stolen bases will increase by about 24%, which is how much they went up last year in the minor leagues, where the new rules were tested before being promoted to the majors for this season. If Turner can boost his career average by 24%, he’ll have 44 stolen bases. If he can top his career best by 24%, that would give him 57.

So maybe 70 stolen bases is a lot to expect from Turner this year, but 50 or 60 doesn’t seem so crazy.

Also, consider the fact that the Phillies are a more aggressive base stealing club than Turner’s former team, the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Phillies attempted to steal on 6.04% of their stolen base opportunities last year, the Dodgers on just 4.97% of theirs. Insert Turner into a lineup that already likes to run, and he should only improve on the 27 stolen bases he had last year.

In fact, the Phillies are one of the most aggressive base stealing teams in the league. That might seem surprising for a team known more for its power than its speed, but it’s true. The Phillies had the fifth most stolen bases in all of baseball last year. They were one of only three teams with at least 200 home runs and 100 stolen bases. This was a lineup that could beat you with its bats and its legs.

With Rob Thomson as manager, the Phillies demonstrated a willingness to run that they never showed under Joe Girardi, Gabe Kapler or Pete Mackanin years. They stole 36% more bases in 2022 than the year before. It was the team’s most steals since 2014, when Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley were still running the bases (albeit on fumes, as they were winding down their careers) and Ben Revere alone snagged 49 of them. Thomson’s Phillies like to put the pedal to the metal and keep the pressure on the other team. Turner figures to play an important role in that strategy.

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Consider, too, that Turner mostly batted second or third for the Dodgers, with the slower Mookie Betts often on base in front of him. Thomson has already strongly suggested that he plans to bat Turner leadoff for the Phillies this year, at least until Bryce Harper returns to the lineup. Turner should expect to have plenty of opportunities with no one on base in front of him. Even if the 8 and 9 batters are on, it will likely be Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh — two speedsters who won’t exactly clog up the bases for Turner.

The only thing that might prevent Turner from reaching 50 or 60 stolen bases this year is his own reluctance.

He is on record as saying he prefers to try to reduce the toll that stealing takes on his body. The goal, as he rightfully points out, is to play as many games as possible and to remain healthy heading into the playoffs.

“You’re trying to play 162 games, and with that many sprints, dive-backs, all those things, it’s harder than people think,” he told Tyler Kepner of The New York Times.

If anyone in the league could steal 50 or 60 bases and remain healthy, it’s him. After all, this is the man whose slides are so silky smooth they seem to defy physics. He doesn’t slide so much as glide into the base, minimizing his impact with the ground. One of his slides, which happened to come against the Phillies, was so mesmerizingly smooth that it went viral on the internet. He has a preternatural level of body control that should help him withstand the damage that stealing does to the body.

The Phillies haven’t had a runner like Turner that consistently reaches base at least since Rollins, or maybe ever. In the team’s long lineage of outstanding baserunners — Rollins, Utley, Bobby Abreu, Lenny Dykstra, Juan Samuel, Von Hayes, Bowa, Garry Maddox and on down the line — Turner might just be the best of the bunch, second only to the incomparable Billy Hamilton, who stole a franchise record 503 bases from 1890-1895. Turner’s career stolen base percentage is higher than any of those modern day players except Utley, who succeeded on 87.5% of his attempts but averaged less than 10 stolen bases per year. In fact, Turner’s career stolen base percentage of 84.559% is good for fourth all-time among players with at least 200 stolen bases, behind only Carlos Beltrán (86.427), Raines (84.696) and Mike Trout (84.647).

“You’re talking about a guy with great speed,” said Larry Bowa, who ranks sixth all time on the franchise’s list of stolen base leaders with 288. “I even said something to him, I said, ‘Man you might steal 50 bases,’ and he gave me a double look like ‘Hey Bo, you stole some bases, but it takes a wear and tear on your body.’ I said, ‘I know, but with these new rules I think you’re going to be on fire on the bases.’”

Fans would love to see Turner steal 60 or 70 bases this year. Even if he can “only” steal 50, he’d be the first Phillie to hit that mark since Juan Samuel in 1985. Like Turner himself, however, fans are more concerned with how many runs he contributes and his overall impact on the lineup. If he steals 35-40 bases but helps the team make another deep run in the playoffs, you can bet they’ll be happy.

But with the new rule changes and Turner’s expected role in this Phillies offense? Here’s betting that 45 or 50 isn’t out of the question. Who knows, maybe even a “ridiculous” total is plausible.

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Matt McAllister

Matt is a contributing writer for Phillies Nation. He grew up in King of Prussia in the 1980's and '90s and is a lifelong fan of all Philadelphia sports teams. He received his Bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and his Master of Arts in Creative Writing from San Francisco State University.