Categories: Analysis

What to expect from Nick Castellanos in 2023

Entering his second season with the Phillies, Nick Castellanos is hoping to bounce back. (Cheryl Pursell)

After signing a five-year, $100 million contract with the Phillies last year, many believed Nick Castellanos would help push the team over the hump and into the postseason for the first time in more than a decade. The club did make the postseason, and went on a run to the World Series. However, Nick Castellanos, for the most part, was not a big contributor at the plate and fell short of what most expected from him.

The expectations were fair, though. The now 31-year-old outfielder was coming off the best year of his career. As a member of the Cincinnati Reds in 2021, Castellanos hit .309/.362/.576 with 34 home runs and 38 doubles. He was also an All-Star for the first time in his career. The former first-round pick did not come close to reaching those numbers with the Phillies last year, though.

In his first season wearing red pinstripes, Castellanos hit .263/.305/.389 with 13 home runs. His league adjusted OPS+, where 100 is league average, was 95 – making Castellanos a below league average hitter.

Even though he struggled for most of the year, there were stretches where Castellanos looked like the hitter the Phillies signed him to be. From Opening Day through May 5, Castellanos hit .308/.379/.505 with four home runs. He started to struggle quickly thereafter.

From May 6 through the end of July, Castellanos went into a deep slump. He hit .242/.274/.333 with four home runs in 321 plate appearances over that span. The right-handed hitter then turned things around in the dog days of August.

From the start of August through September 2 – when Castellanos injured his oblique in a game against the Giants – he slashed .294/.327/.490 with five home runs. After being placed on the injured list, Castellanos returned to the Phillies in late September. He did not produce much at the plate upon his return.

During the playoffs, the right fielder made 69 trips to the plate. Castellanos slashed .185/.232/.246 in those plate appearances and did not hit a single home run.

One of the main reasons Castellanos struggled last season was his inability to lay off pitches outside of the strike zone. His 39.6 percent chase rate was a career high and his 5.2 percent walk rate was a career low. He also posted career lows in average exit velocity (87.5 mph) and barrel rate (6.6 percent), while posting the second lowest hard hit rate (35.1 percent) of his career.

So, where, and how, can Castellanos improve in 2023?

In a recent article, MLB.com‘s Todd Zolecki highlighted five Phillies hitters and what they were working on during spring training. Castellanos was one of them. Zolecki spoke with hitting coach Kevin Long who mentioned the 31-year-old has moved closer to home plate and up in the batter’s box heading into the season.

Long explained the reasons behind Castellanos’ new location in the batter’s box. He said the right-handed hitter swung at too many pitches that were down and outside of the strike zone in 2022. The Phillies hitting coach is hopeful moving Castellanos towards the plate some, while moving up in the box, will make down and out pitches higher for Castellanos if he swings at them. But, Long would like Castellanos to lay off those pitches altogether.

Long does want Castellanos to remain aggressive. He’s always been that way at the dish. But he wants him to be aggressive with pitches that are inside the strike zone.

Being able to lay off pitches that won’t result in called strikes, would likely lead to pitchers having to throw pitches inside the strike zone more. Castellanos would be able to drive those pitches with more ease. Becoming more disciplined at the plate could also result in more walks, which happened during spring training.

In 62 plate appearances during Grapefruit League play, Castellanos had 11 walks – the most he’s ever had during spring training.

All that being said, many think 2023 could be a bounce back season for the Phillies right fielder. So, what kind of numbers can be expected from Castellanos in 2023?

First, it is important to note that Castellanos’ numbers in 2021 were not just really good, but they were some of the best in the league. His 34 home runs were the most he’s ever hit in a season. His .309 batting average was ninth best in the majors, while his .576 slugging percentage was fifth and his 38 doubles were eighth.

It is safe to say 2021 will probably be the best year of Castellanos’ career. He likely won’t reach those numbers ever again. Therefore, it wouldn’t be fair to expect that level of production this year.

However, what is fair to expect from Castellanos is more power than last season. Remaining patient, while hunting for pitches in his wheelhouse, could result in a home run total in the low-to-mid 20s.

Overall, a slugging percentage in the neighborhood of .475 for Castellanos would definitely be a solid bounce back when compared to last year. That level of production would also help the middle of the club’s lineup. Especially now that Rhys Hoskins is out for the year.

Those numbers are relatively close to the numbers certain sites have projected for Castellanos this year. Fangraphs’ ZiPS projects that he’ll hit 21 home runs, while slugging .453.

Entering his second season with the Phillies, Castellanos is hoping to turn things around. He is coming off arguably the worst year of his career, and there are adjustments he needs to make to be a better hitter in 2023.

An All-Star level season likely isn’t on the horizon, but Castellanos could certainly reestablish himself as an above league average hitter who can hit for power in the middle of the Phillies lineup.