Categories: Phillies Beat with Destiny Lugardo

5 numbers on the Phillies bullpen’s run of dominance

Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado both received contract extensions during spring training. (Cheryl Pursell/Phillies Nation)

The Phillies have turned it around, winning 12 of the last 15. They’ll finish the month over .500 regardless of what happens during Sunday’s series finale against the Astros. Much of the team’s success in recent weeks can be attributed to their championship caliber relief core.

Since April 16, the bullpen has posted a league-best 0.91 ERA. They rank No. 1 in FIP, fWAR and walks per nine innings in that same span. The Phillies are also 4-0 in one-run games over the last 13.

José Alvarado looks like the best reliever on the planet, Craig Kimbrel and Seranthony Domínguez have bounced back from a couple rough outings early on and Gregory Soto has made significant improvements to his delivery since coming over in a trade with the Detroit Tigers.

Let’s take a look at five numbers that help explain the Phillies bullpen’s run of dominance.

2 — blown saves in the month of April

It’s only been two years since the Phillies bullpen finished second in the league with 34 blown saves in 2021. They nearly cut that number in half with 18 during the regular season in 2022. Blown saves, which happen when a reliever surrenders a lead of three runs or fewer at any point in the game, are not the best indicator of a bullpen’s overall competency, but the number being that low and the recent stretch of good play in close games tell you that they’re getting the job done when it matters.

The Red Sox and Marlins, who have one blown save apiece, are the only teams in baseball with fewer blown saves. The last Phillies blown save happened on April 12 when Alvarado allowed a home run against Jorge Soler in the seventh inning as part of a 3-2 extra innings loss to Miami.

0-for-30 — opposing batters against José Alvarado with two strikes

Where were you when José Alvarado uttered the words “Strike one, strike two and good luck” after Game 1 of the 2022 NLDS? It’s more than just a catchy t-shirt slogan, it’s a way of life.

Alvarado has not allowed a single runner to reach base safely when he has two strikes on him so far this season. You have to go all the way back to September 3 of last season to find the last time Alvarado let a baserunner reach with two strikes during the regular season. The last hit, a single from the Diamondbacks’ Geraldo Perdomo, came on August 29.

62 — batters Alvarado has faced since last regular season walk

Alvarado has also not allowed a walk this entire year. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 12 innings in 2023, Alvarado is the only one left without a walk. Per the Phillies, his last regular season walk came on September 21 against Matt Chapman. Since then, he has struck out 54.8% of batters faced.

It’s a drastic shift from where he was in his first year with Philadelphia, where he walked more than 18% of the batters he faced. He’s had nine three-ball counts and here are all the pitches he has executed to get hitters out in those counts.

.105 — batting average against Gregory Soto’s slider in 2023

Speaking of left-handed relievers off to a fantastic start, Soto, outside of the walk numbers, looks like a clone of Alvarado. The Phillies have made some tweaks with Soto, the most visible being a simplified slide-step delivery.

The Phillies have also had Soto increase his slider usage. It was not a good pitch last year. Opponents batted .262 versus the slider in 2022, but that number is all the way down to .105 in 2023. He’s throwing it 44% of the time this year as opposed to 21% in 2022. He’s now getting more chase out of the strike zone.

Gregory Soto’s slider location (2022 vs. 2023)

70.5 % — Craig Kimbrel’s first-pitch strike rate in 2023

For two-pitch pitchers like Craig Kimbrel, getting ahead early in the count is a must and it appears the veteran pitcher is having more success this year. Per the Phillies, his 70.5% first-pitch strike rate is the highest for him since 2012. That’s the year he finished with a 1.01 ERA, 42 saves and a top-five finish in Cy Young voting.

Don’t expect Kimbrel to reach those heights this year, but at the very least, he’s been a pretty good backend arm for the Phillies. Unlike Soto, the Phillies haven’t drastically altered Kimbrel’s pitch usage. His slurve — a pitch with the movement of a curveball and the velocity of a slider, has improved. He’s getting more drop (46.8 inches in 2023 vs. 44 inches in 2022) and commanding it better. Hitters have posted a .156 expected batting average against the pitch.