MLB Trade Rumors suggests Aaron Nola could command ‘north of $200 million’

Aaron Nola’s slow start to the 2023 season hasn’t changed how he’s viewed nationally as he approaches free agency.

Tim Dierkes and the team at MLB Trade Rumors unveiled their countdown of the top players who can become free agents after the 2022-23 season. Nola checked in at No. 3:

“Back when Nola had three years of MLB service, he inked a four-year extension with the Phillies that included a club option on a fifth year, which the Phillies gladly exercised.  If he remains healthy and effective in 2023, a contract north of $200MM has to be in play if Nola reaches the open market.”

Of course, two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani came in at the top spot. It can certainly be debated as to whether Nola should have been No. 2, but Julio Urías is an excellent option as well.

While there was quite a bit of analysis from MLBTR on Nola as he nears free agency, the “north of $200 million” part is certainly what will stick out the most from their insight.

It goes without saying that Nola will have to make drastic improvements on the 7.04 ERA that he has through three starts. And history suggests he’ll do just that.

Even with the early starts that Nola has made this season included, he has a 3.53 ERA, 3.24 FIP and a 21.9 WAR since the start of 2018, which FanGraphs says is fifth among all qualified starting pitchers. What’s more, Nola and Gerrit Cole are tied for the Major League lead in innings pitched over that same period at 887. Nola’s teammate Zack Wheeler is the next closest at 830 2/3 innings pitched.

It’s fair to say that Nola isn’t an ace in the sense that Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee were at the height of their powers, but very few are. When you combine Nola’s most dominant stretches — he finished third in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2018 and led all pitchers in FanGraphs‘ version of WAR in 2022 — with his durability, he’s unquestionably one of the 10 most valuable pitchers in baseball. And whether it’s from the Phillies or someone else, he’ll likely be paid accordingly in 2024, after his current team-friendly pact wraps up.

Phillies, Aaron Nola reportedly break off extension talks

The Phillies and Nola halted long-term contract negotiations late in Spring Training, with the plan being to resume them after the 2023 season is concluded. But by that point, Nola may be inclined to at least test the free agent market.

Unless they were to sign Urias or acquire another frontline pitcher, it would be hard to imagine the Phillies being as good or better in 2024 and beyond if they allow Nola to walk. The aforementioned Wheeler can become a free agent after next season. Andrew Painter’s short and long-term statuses are unclear as he rehabs a right UCL sprain. Even if you take the worst version of Nola out of the Phillies rotation, the team would desperately miss his ability to eat up innings.

And so whether it’s $180, $200 or more, the guess here is that the Phillies will ultimately re-sign the former first-round pick. He’ll turn 30 in June and the fact that he’s never been reliant on throwing a high-90s fastball leads you to believe that he’ll age well.

MORE FROM PHILLIES NATION

1. Phillies 2023 Walk-Up Songs
2. ‘He’s Got Some Of The Best Stuff I’ve Ever Seen’: Teammates Rave About José Alvarado’s Dominance
3. Bryce Harper Is Learning How To Play First Base
4. Baserunning Blunders Happening Far Too Often For Phillies
5. PN Roundtable: 2023 Phillies Season Predictions
6. Trying The New Foods At Citizens Bank Park
7. First Look: New Scoreboard At Citizens Bank Park Unveiled
8. Yes, Even Trea Turner Was Puzzled By The Late-Game Review
9. Phillies Reportedly Still Plan To Add Uniform Sponsor In 2023
10. Phillies Nation Top 15 Prospects: March 2023