Despite a dominant two weeks of baseball, in which the Phillies bullpen combined for a 0.83 ERA, three wins, no losses and zero blown saves, fans could be excused for not being ready to put their faith and trust in this year’s relief corps just yet.
On paper, this year’s bullpen might be the most talented and accomplished collection of relievers the team has ever assembled. Dave Dombrowski took the handful of reliable pieces from last year — Seranthony Dominguez, José Alvarado, Connor Brogdon and Andrew Bellatti — and added to them not one but two proven closers in Craig Kimbrel and Gregory Soto, plus a dependable middle inning guy in Matt Strahm.
Yet, this is a fanbase that has been burned often enough by the likes of David Robertson, Brandon Workman, Ian Kennedy and countless others that they know better than to get their hopes too high over any new bullpen addition, no matter how highly touted they come.
Don’t forget, the Phillies bullpen is just three years removed from a historically ineffective season in which they led the league in blown saves and put up the highest ERA (7.06) in baseball in 90 years. The team retooled the bullpen after that season, signing Archie Bradley for $6 million and trading for Alvarado and Sam Coonrod, and their ERA climbed all the way from 30th in the league to … 25th. They overhauled the bullpen yet again before the 2022 season, spending $22 million on Corey Knebel, Jeurys Familia and Brad Hand via free agency, and this time their bullpen ERA skyrocketed up to … 23rd place.
For years now, it has seemed like no matter who the management brings in to help, the Phillies bullpen is doomed. It’s been six years since the ‘pen was in the top half of the league, and even then their 4.18 was good enough for just 14th place out of 30 teams. You have to go back to 2015 for the last time the Phillies bullpen had an ERA under 4.00.
So, after yet another offseason of free agent signings, trades and supposed upgrades, fans were understandably skeptical about the bullpen. Sure, it had all the ingredients to be successful, but pedigree is no guarantee of success, and even when MLB.com ranked the Phils bullpen seventh in its pre-season list of the top bullpens, fans were cautiously optimistic, at best.
The beginning of the season did nothing to alleviate their concerns. On Opening Day, Soto — who’d saved 30 games for the Tigers last year and had come over with Kody Clemens in a trade — couldn’t find the plate, giving up four runs (three earned) without getting an out and ultimately taking the loss. In game two, it was Dominguez (zero innings pitched, four earned runs) and Kimbrel’s (zero innings pitched, four earned runs) turns to implode.
It didn’t get much better from there. Not for two weeks, anyway.
Through the first 15 games of the season, the bullpen ERA stood at 7.19. That was second-to-last in the league, behind only the woeful A’s. The bullpen, and the team as a whole, hit a low point on April 15th, when Belatti and McKinley Moore, who would be optioned back to Triple A after the game, combined to surrender five earned runs in an ugly, 13-0 loss to the Reds. It got so bad that utility infielder Josh Harrison had to come into the game for mop up duty — already for the second time this season.
But then, finally, something started to click.
The next night, the trio of Brogdon, Kimbrel and Luis Ortiz combined for three shutout innings in relief of Aaron Nola during a 14-3 win. The team then flew to Chicago, where the bullpen threw 7 2/3 more innings of shutout baseball against the White Sox. From April 16 to April 30, the bullpen didn’t allow a single run in 11 of their 14 games. It is no coincidence that the team climbed from a season-worst five games below .500 to one game above the waterline during that time.
At the heart of the resurgence sat Alvarado, who finished April with a 0.73 ERA, 0.486 WHIP, and 17.5 strikeouts per nine innings. Alvarado appeared to have picked up where he left off in 2022, by dominating major league hitters. Remember when he was sent down to Triple A last May after he started the season with an ERA above seven? Ever since he came back, he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. He is commanding all of his pitches and regularly topping 100 mph on the radar gun. He has become Rob Thomson’s most trusted reliever in high-leverage situations and leads the team with five saves.
When Alvarado wasn’t closing out games, Kimbrel was doing so commendably. After that disastrous start to his Phillies career, Kimbrel had settled in nicely, surrendering just two earned runs in his next 11 appearances (10 2/3 innings). The 34-year-old righty — who needs just three more saves to join Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith, Francisco Rodríguez, John Franco, and Billy Wagner in the 400 club — sat in the top 10 in the league for strikeout percentage and expected batting average at the end of April, according to Statcast.
The other high-profile newcomer, Soto, also rebounded from a rough first appearance with the team to give up just one earned run over his next 13 outings. For the month of April, Soto’s ERA was just 0.71, with 16 strikeouts and six hits in 12.2 innings. He’s throwing his slider more than twice as often as last year — 44.7% compared to 21.6% — and for a while it appeared to be working. Opponents were batting just .192 against it, with a 57.9% whiff rate.
During the second half of April, the group looked to have things figured out, and the team’s fans could almost start believing that they might just be the top-rated bullpen that was advertised at the beginning of the year. Even Dominguez looked to have turned his season around after that dismal beginning on Opening Day; aside from one other bad outing in Cincinnati on April 9, he’d only given up one earned run in his other eleven appearances through the end of the month, totaling 10 1/3 innings.
Then the calendar flipped to May, and the team went to Los Angeles to play the Dodgers.
On Monday, Kimbrel and Ortiz each gave up two runs and let what was already a blowout loss become a laugher. The next night Soto and Yunior Marte each gave up four runs before yielding to a position player for the second night in a row — this time Clemens, who, in case you were wondering, failed to conjure the talents of his famous father. On Wednesday, even the normally reliable Alvarado stumbled, surrendering the tying and go-ahead runs in the bottom of the eighth inning (although it wasn’t entirely his fault as he got little help from his defense). After the Phillies tied the game in the top of the ninth, Kimbrel loaded the bases with two walks and a hit before surrendering a walk-off grand slam. In those three games, the bullpen put up a 15.88 ERA.
Clearly, there is work to do before the Phillies bullpen lives up to its lofty expectations. The group has run cold and hot, and now cold again. On the whole, their 5.59 ERA ranks 27th in the league, while their bullpen payroll of $22,644,540 is sixth highest. They’re going to need to be a lot more consistent if they’re going to earn the trust of the people who sign their checks.
As for winning the trust of the fans? That could take even longer.
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