CLEVELAND — Former Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Scott Rolen will be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame Sunday, joining Fred McGriff as the only two players elected in the Class of 2023.
What former Phillie will be the next to join Rolen in Cooperstown?
The closest is closer Billy Wagner, who spent the 2004 and 2005 seasons in red pinstripes. Wagner — who is sixth in MLB history with 422 saves — received 68.1% of the vote in 2023, his eighth year on the ballot. The seven-time All-Star will get two more cracks at getting to 75%, and typically when players get as close percentage wise as he has, they end up getting in.
If not Wagner, Bobby Abreu will return to the ballot for a fifth season in 2024 after getting votes on 15.4% of ballots this past cycle. Abreu had 2,470 hits and 400 stolen bases in his 18-year career, and unlike Wagner, would almost certainly go in with a Phillies cap if he’s ever elected. But while Abreu’s time on the ballot has demonstrated that he was probably underappreciated during his career, it’s unclear if he has a path to 75%.
The same may be true of Jimmy Rollins, much to the chagrin of Phillies fans. Rollins garnered 12.9% of the vote in his second year on the ballot, so it’s clear he’ll continue to draw consideration for all 10 years of eligibility. But he has a lot of ground to make up to get elected.
Rollins is often compared to Barry Larkin, who was elected to the Hall of Fame in 2012 after a 19-year career spent exclusively with the Cincinnati Reds. Like Larkin, Rollins has an NL MVP on his resume, and his four Gold Glove Awards are actually one more than Larkin. Rollins also finished his career with 115 more hits than Larkin.
At the same time, Larkin was a career .295 hitter, who hit over .300 nine times in his career. Rollins was a career .264 hitter, who peaked when he hit .296 in his MVP season of 2007. Larkin finished his career with an .815 OPS, as opposed to a .743 OPS for Rollins. According to FanGraphs, Larkin’s career WAR was 67.0, quite a bit higher than Rollins’ mark of 49.6.
Rollins may very well get in one day, but comparing him to Larkin probably isn’t the best strategy for those hoping to make his case to undecided voters. And while his No. 11 should be retired by the Phillies regardless of whether or not he ends up with a plaque in Cooperstown, the feeling here is Rollins will probably end up on the outside looking in for the Hall of Fame.
Which brings us to Rollins’ long-time double-play partner, Chase Utley. Set to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time in 2024, Utley was a six-time All-Star and four-time Silver Slugger Award winner.
At the height of his powers, Utley was unquestionably a Cooperstown-worthy player. Between 2005 and 2012, the only position player who topped Utley’s 50.4 WAR was future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols. Over that same period, Utley led all of baseball with 131 defensive runs saved, topping future Hall of Famers Adrián Beltré and Yadier Molina. According to Baseball Reference, Utley’s WAR 7 — which takes a player’s top seven single-season WAR totals and adds them up — of 49.3 is ninth among all second basemen in MLB history.
What will work against Utley is that being blocked by Plácido Polanco early in his career and injuries during the back-half of his prime prevented him from accumulating more counting numbers. For some, Utley having slightly less than 2,000 career hits will be disqualifying. While we would argue awards voters got it wrong, Utley never finished in the top five in NL MVP voting, which is another thing more traditional writers will hold against him.
All of this is to say, the Phillies don’t have a slam-dunk candidate that will appear on the ballot soon, but they have quite a few guys that will draw consideration. And wouldn’t it be a fitting conclusion to both of their careers if Rollins and Utley ended up going into Cooperstown in the same class?
Must-Read (Or Watch) Phillies Content
- Ty Daubert and myself have everything you need to know from last night’s fielding blunder between Nick Castellanos and Bryson Stott, which ultimately was the difference in a 1-0 loss.
- Here’s the lineup for the final game between the Phillies and Guardians:
- It’s a getaway day Sunday, but the Phillies will be wearing their gray road uniforms, rather than the red tops. Cleveland wore red tops in each of the first two games of the series, so that’s not especially surprising.
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