The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Toronto Blue Jays in Aaron Nola’s most recent start Wednesday, but the veteran righty walked four, gave up four hits and allowed four runs to cross the plate, leaving you with the feeling that things may not come together for the 30-year-old this season.
Nola’s ERA on the season now sits at 4.58 and his FIP at 4.25. He’s surrendered 27 home runs in 2023, tying his career-high from 2019 despite there being more than a month left in the regular season. At this point, there’s a legitimate discussion to be had about whether Nola should even start Game 2 of a hypothetical Wild Card Series.
And that’s just the tip of the iceberg given that Nola can become a free agent this upcoming offseason. Regardless of how the rest of the season plays out, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and the Phillies will almost certainly extend a qualifying offer to Nola. But despite costing himself a decent chunk of money given how his contract year has gone, it still feels unlikely that Nola would accept what will be around a one-year/$19.65 million deal.
One potential suitor for Nola — should he reach the open market — could be the St. Louis Cardinals. Ben Frederickson of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch opined in a recent column that the Cardinals, who will be looking to rebound from a lost season in 2023, would make sense as a player for Nola this offseason:
“Indeed, the 30-year-old right-hander hasn’t pitched up to his sky-high potential for the Phillies this season. Teams that will bid on his services if the Phillies don’t sign him to an extension, and there will be many, won’t let that stop them from coveting Nola, and they shouldn’t. Maybe it makes the Phillies more willing to let him walk. Hope so.
“Remember what happened the last time Nola had a somewhat disappointing (for him) season in 2021? He turned around in 2022 and finished fourth in Cy Young Award voting, then took his carving knife to the Cardinals in that season’s Wild Card Series, leaving their season in shreds before pumpkins finished ripening. It was the 2018 All-Star’s third top-10 Cy Young Award finish in a five-year span. It was yet another reminder that, with Nola, the floor is always better than most and the ceiling is elite.”
It is interesting to hear an outside perspective on Nola, and it offers a reminder that yes, there will be quite a bit of external interest in a pitcher who leads baseball with 1,025 innings pitched since the start of the 2018 season.
At the same time, the Phillies absolutely need to make an assessment this offseason on whether 2023 was just a down year for Nola or the start of a decline after years of making 30+ starts. It’s hard to imagine Nola getting $200 million this offseason, which seemed like a real possibility after he led all pitchers in FanGraphs‘ calculation of WAR in 2022. But Nola still figures to command a lucrative contract in excess of $130 million this offseason, so for the next half decade, give or take, he would be one of the highest-paid players on the team.
It is fair to ask, though, how would the Phillies make up for the 200-inning hole in their rotation if Nola departed? Internally, Zack Wheeler will turn 34 during the 2024 season, which will be a contract year for him. Ranger Suárez and Taijuan Walker will be part of the rotation in some form, and perhaps Cristopher Sánchez will too. Like Nola, Michael Lorenzen will become a free agent this offseason, and it’s difficult to project what type of deal he’ll get and if he’ll be able to match what’s been a career year in 2023.
Julio Urías of the Los Angeles Dodgers is scheduled to be a free agent this offseason, and will only be 27 during the 2024 season. But after finishing third in NL Cy Young Award voting a year ago, Urías has a 4.35 ERA and 4.28 FIP in 99 1/3 innings pitched this season. If he declines the qualifying offer he’s certain to receive from the Dodgers, the Phillies would have to surrender their second and fifth-round picks in the 2024 MLB Draft to sign him. Retaining Nola wouldn’t come with that price tag. If Nola departs in free agency, the Phillies will only get a compensatory pick after the fourth round because they have exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2023.
There are some other veteran pitchers set to hit the open market this offseason, but none of them are any less flawed than Nola. Lucas Giolito has an 8.14 ERA in four starts since being traded to the Angels. Blake Snell is a former Cy Young Award winner, but has never pitched more than 180 2/3 innings in a season. Marcus Stroman was an All-Star this season for the Chicago Cubs, but he’s currently on the injured list and will turn 33 next season. Eduardo Rodriguez is having a tremendous season for the Tigers, but he’s hardly been a workhorse in his career — he threw 203 1/3 innings for the Boston Red Sox in 2019, but has never topped 160 innings in another season — and also isn’t certain to opt out of the final three years of his deal.
In theory, trading for Shane Bieber or Corbin Burnes would be an upgrade, but both can become free agents after the 2024 season. Both would also require a hefty trade return, and it’s fair to wonder if the Phillies could put together an appetizing enough package of prospects right now. Maybe someone like Suárez could be part of a trade package, but how much better of a team are you if you add Bieber or Burnes but subtract both Nola and Suárez?
Again, this isn’t to say that the Phillies should just hand Nola blank check this offseason. There would be quite a bit of risk in giving a player entering his age-31 season a five-year deal when he’s got a ton of mileage on his arm and is coming off of the worst season of his career. But there will probably be at least as much risk in any alternatives to Nola.
And if the Phillies do let Nola walk, he would make quite a bit of sense for pitching-needy NL teams that hope to compete in 2024, such as the Cardinals and San Francisco Giants. So the Phillies would have to be prepared for the possibility of facing Nola in a postseason matchup — or having his new team edge them out for a Wild Card spot — if they don’t retain their longest-tenured player.
Must-Read (Or Watch) Phillies Content
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- Ranger Suárez won’t make his scheduled start Sunday evening for the Phillies in Williamsport. Destiny also has the details on that.
- It feels like this quote from Davey Martinez could apply to a lot of different guys:
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- Not sure what to do with this, but it’s cool:
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