Categories: Phillies Beat with Destiny Lugardo

New and old Aaron Nola trends evident in latest disappointing outing

Aaron Nola could not complete five innings in the Phillies’ win against the Marlins on Saturday night. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

Aaron Nola paced back-and-forth in the Phillies dugout. He left the mound in complete control with the Phillies up 5-0 in the fourth inning. He had only two hits and five strikeouts to his line.

Nola then recorded one out in the fifth and then allowed three to score before leaving the game to a mixture of cheers and boos in front of a frustrated Citizens Bank Park crowd.

It’s something we’ve seen before. Nola has looked strong for the majority of a start only to have some sort of meltdown near the end that puts a sour taste in everyone’s mouth.

“It just kind of unraveled, man,” Nola said after the game. “I feel like that’s how it has been all year.”

The Phillies avoided disaster this time around. Jeff Hoffman, who has been a steady presence with runners on out of the bullpen this year, allowed an inherited runner to score, but did not allow the tying run to cross the plate. Brandon Marsh plated three more with a bases-clearing double a half inning later to give the bullpen a four-run lead to work with.

The Phillies won 8-4 and increased their lead over Chicago in the Wild Card standings, but the same concerns are still there with Nola.

The big inning for Nola is nothing new, but what is new is the timing of those meltdowns. They’re happening earlier in games and it has led to Nola struggling to complete six innings. It’s something he’s only done four times in 10 post- All-Star break starts.

Of the six starts since the break in which he has failed to complete six innings, five of them have contained at least one multi-run inning. Three of those starts had multiple multi-run innings.

7-29 at PIT: Scoreless through three, two runs in fourth and three runs in fifth (two unearned).
8-4 vs. KC: Home run in third, HR in fifth and two inherited runners score in fifth.
8-10 vs. WSN: Scoreless through four and one inherited runner scores in fifth.
8-16 vs. TOR: Two-run home run in third and two-run single in fourth.
9-2 at MIL: Three-run second, home run in fifth and two additional runs score (one inherited runner scores).
9-9 vs. MIA: Scoreless through four, four runs in fifth, including one home run and an inherited run.

Nola finished the first half with a disappointing 4.39 ERA, but he was at least able to eat valuable innings for the Phillies. He failed to finish at least six innings in only two of his first 19 starts of 2023.

The frustration is mounting.

“He’s kind of a perfectionist,” Rob Thomson said after the game. “And he’s a really hyper competitive guy, so he wants to get it done. And he wants to get it done not only for himself, but for the team. So I think there’s a lot of frustration.”

Nola has three starts (four if you think the final game of the regular season will matter) left in his nightmarish walk year. It’s too late for his ERA (4.64) to drop below a more aesthetically pleasing number below four, so the focus for Nola has to be finishing off on a positive note and bringing some of that momentum with him into a postseason stretch that could define his legacy with the Phillies.