Rob Thomson hates talking about the playoffs.
The Phillies’ playoff odds, according to FanGraphs, are at 100%. The math is in favor of the Phillies — it’s a near certainty at this point, but the Phillies can’t shift their focus to October until the bottles are popped and all the other teams below them are eliminated.
That can happen as early as this Sunday if the Phillies win at least two against the Mets and get some help below them in the standings. Until that happens, we’ll continue to hear the same thing.
“I hate talking about this stuff. I really do,” Thomson said before Thursday’s game. “We gotta wrap it up first.”
Once the Phillies do “wrap it up,” they will need to put the finishing touches on their 26-man playoff roster.
The Phillies used 20 players, including six pitchers, during the 2022 Wild Card series against the Cardinals. Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler combined to cover 13 of the 18 innings needed to secure a trip to Atlanta for the Division Series.
If they get that kind of performance again from their top two starters — and their backend relievers — then the decisions made on the final roster spots are inconsequential. But it’s always best to prepare for the worst and the Phillies will have to figure out, especially in the bullpen, who they are comfortable using in an all hands on deck situation.
Much of that decision making will come down to the Phillies’ opponent in the Wild Card series. The website PlayoffStatus.com says the Diamondbacks (69%) are the Phillies’ most likely first round playoff opponent.
Unless Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are used during the final weekend of the season, the Phillies should expect to face the two righty starters in Games 1 and 2. Gallen has allowed 10 earned runs in his last two starts, but he still has a 3.60 ERA and is a Cy Young candidate.
There is an argument to be made that Kelly should also be in the discussion. He has a 3.37 ERA this season and could be tougher for the Phillies to deal with than Gallen. Joe Mantiply, Kyle Nelson and Andrew Saalfrank are the three lefties in the D-Backs bullpen. It’s a righty-heavy lineup, but their best hitter, Corbin Caroll, is a lefty.
Teams are allowed a maximum of 26 players and 13 pitchers on the playoff roster.
Here is Phillies Nation’s first Phillies playoff roster projection.
Hitters: Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, Jake Cave, Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh, J.T. Realmuto, Johan Rojas, Kyle Schwarber, Edmundo Sosa, Bryson Stott, Garrett Stubbs, Trea Turner and Weston Wilson
The Phillies are carrying both Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache on the roster because they want Rojas to play in the majors. Pache is out of minor league options, so the Phillies would have to get him through waivers in order to send him to the minor leagues. It’s why the Phillies bench feels a bit redundant.
It’s something the Phillies do not have to worry about as they construct a postseason roster. I would expect the Phillies to roll with Rojas in center field and use Pache’s spot on Weston Wilson, who can play multiple positions and come in as a pinch runner and pinch hitter against tough lefty relievers.
The only reason why Wilson is not up with the big club is because the Phillies want to retain Rodolfo Castro’s final minor league option year for 2024. To do that, they have to keep him on the major league roster for the remainder of the regular season. It would be surprising to see Castro, who has not appeared in a game since Sept. 5, make the postseason roster.
Pitchers: José Alvarado, Dylan Covey, Seranthony Domínguez, Jeff Hoffman, Craig Kimbrel, Michael Lorenzen, Yunior Marte, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Gregory Soto, Matt Strahm, Ranger Suárez and Zack Wheeler
The notable exclusion here is Taijuan Walker.
In his last six starts, Walker has a 6.00 ERA with 17 walks in 33 innings. He has a 6.28 ERA in the first inning this season. The Phillies can’t afford to fall into an early hole in any of the Wild Card games, let alone a win-or-go-home Game 3.
If he’s not starting, he’s probably not relieving, so leaving Walker off the Wild Card roster isn’t a crazy idea.
That doesn’t mean he would be left off the roster in subsequent series, if the Phillies make it that far. In a five or seven-game series, the Phillies may prefer to have Walker in a Kyle Gibson-like innings eater role if he’s not starting.
But in a three-game series, someone like Yunior Marte, who can come into a “dirty inning” and get batters out, might be a better use of a roster spot.
But there is a human element to this. Walker is under contract with the Phillies for another three years. Leaving a player off the roster who has that kind of contractual commitment could come with some interpersonal consequences the Phillies may not want to deal with.
Since the last spot on the pitching staff isn’t as important in the Wild Card round, maybe the Phillies decide to keep Walker.
Wild Card Rotation
- Game 1: Zack Wheeler
- Game 2: Aaron Nola
- Game 3: Ranger Suárez
The Phillies should not overthink this. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola should start the first two games of the playoff series. Assuming the matchup is against the Diamondbacks, who have the fourth-highest team slugging percentage in MLB against changeups, the Phillies could be better off saving Cristopher Sánchez for the Division Series.
Walker has not pitched well enough to earn a spot in the rotation, so the start should go to Suárez. If the Phillies win the series, they’ll probably reevaluate his role on the pitching staff moving forward.
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