With 10 games remaining in the season, the Philadelphia Phillies find themselves in a much better position than they were in at the same point last year. Instead of battling for the sixth and final playoff spot like they had to 2022, they currently have a comfortable lead for the top Wild Card spot. FanGraphs gives them a 99.7% chance of making the playoffs.
That’s not to say that the team can simply coast into the playoffs. There is plenty of work to do before they get there. But it does mean that it’s not too early to start thinking about how the team’s playoff run might take shape. Because even after 152 games, there are still a lot of unknowns about this team and how well it can play in the postseason. For all of its strengths, this is a team with some glaring weaknesses as well.
With time running short to figure it all out, here are the top questions that Rob Thomson and crew will have to answer as they head into the postseason.
Who Plays In The Outfield?
The Phillies’ center field situation has seen more turnover the last few years than your local McDonald’s drive-through. Matt Vierling, Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn, Odubel Herrera and Aaron Alther each rotated through turns as the Opening Day center fielder before Brandon Marsh claimed the position heading into this season. But suddenly, between Marsh, Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache, the Phillies now have a surfeit of quality center fielders.
They each bring different skills to the position, and it will be Thomson’s job to figure out who plays where and when during the postseason. Though all three are considered natural center fielders, the best lineup figures to be one in which Kyle Schwarber is the DH and one of those three plays left field. It most likely won’t be Rojas, who has separated himself not just from Marsh and Pache but also from the rest of the league as one of the best defensive center fielders in the game. His 14 Defensive Runs Saved currently rank fourth among all players at the position, despite accumulating significantly fewer innings than anyone else in the top 10.
The most potent bat of the three center fielders belongs to Marsh, and as the only lefty among them, he is a lock to start against right-handed pitchers. But Thomson seems determined to give Pache his share of playing time as well, especially against tough left-handed pitching, and he might continue to do so in the playoffs. Of course, this all depends on Bryce Harper’s back staying healthy enough to enable him to play first base so that Schwarber can DH, which is no guarantee.
Too many outfielders is a good problem to have, but a problem nonetheless that will have to be sorted out before the playoffs begin.
Who Pitches At The Tail End Of The Rotation?
Barring injury, Zach Wheeler will pitch Game 1 of the playoffs for the Phillies. He’ll most likely be followed by Aaron Nola in a game that will undoubtedly cause antacid sales to spike throughout the Delaware Valley. The ball will probably go to Ranger Suárez for Game 3. But after that? The Phillies have some tough decisions to make.
Taijuan Walker leads the team with 15 wins, but his inconsistency in the second half will likely give Thomson pause. Meanwhile, Michael Lorenzen’s career as a Phillie got off to a tremendous start, but he has struggled to find his rhythm ever since throwing a no-hitter against the Nationals. Then there’s Cristopher Sanchez, who’s been the most dependable starter not named Wheeler over the second half of the season. Thomson will certainly consider giving him the ball for the team’s fourth postseason game, but the 26-year-old’s lack of experience will be a concern.
In most likelihood, Thomson might look to piggyback his starters with some variation of other starters out of the bullpen. For instance, Sanchez could start one game with Lorenzen, who’s accustomed to pitching out of the bullpen, coming in for the third time through the lineup. Or if Nola struggles, Sanchez or Walker might have to make an early appearance in Game 2.
The good news is that, like the outfield situation, Thomson has a lot of options to choose from. The bad news? Wheeler aside, the starting rotation is not the strength going into this year’s playoffs that it was last year, so Thomson is going to have to get creative in order to get the most from his starting rotation.
Can Anyone In The Bullpen Be Trusted?
The Phillies entered this season expecting their revamped bullpen to be one of the team’s major strengths. Having added not one but two proven closers in Craig Kimbrel and Gregory Soto to a bullpen that already featured Seranthony Dominguez and José Alvarado, the Phillies ranked seventh on MLB.com’s pre-season list of the top bullpens in baseball.
For the most part, the group has lived up to its expectations. The pen’s collective ERA of 3.70 ranks eighth best in baseball, and its 5.6 Wins Above Replacement is tied for fourth. Kimbrel has saved 23 of 26 opportunities, while Jose Alvarado is eight for 10. This should be the first season since 2015 that the bullpen ERA ends up below 4.00.
And yet, the bullpen appears to be running out of steam at exactly the wrong time for the Phillies. Over the last 30 days, Kimbrel, Dominguez, Alvardo and Soto have all been either wild or ineffective at times. Andrew Bellatti, who played a crucial role down the stretch for the Phillies last season, has an ERA of 5.87 during that time. Only Jeff Hoffman — the 30-year-old journeyman who was cut by the Minnesota Twins this spring and assigned to the Lehigh Valley IronPigs after the Phillies picked up his contract in April — has shown consistency. The Phillies need their high-priced relievers to step up if they are going to make a deep run in the postseason.
Who Bats Where At The Bottom Of The Lineup?
The top of the Phillies lineup appears to be set. Kyle Schwarber — perhaps the most unconventional leadoff hitter of all time — will bat first, followed by Trea Turner and Bryce Harper. Alec Bohm has been batting cleanup ever since Sept. 9, when Thomson bumped Nick Castellanos from fourth to eighth in an attempt to break him out of his second-half skid.
The move appears to have worked. Castellanos is 14 for 45 (.311) since then, with five home runs and 14 RBIs in 12 games while batting no higher than sixth. But will he continue to bat in the lower portion of the lineup once the postseason begins? J.T. Realmuto has struggled of late and is batting just .228 in September. Perhaps he could benefit from a similar drop in the lineup? Same with Bryson Stott, who has mostly batted fifth ever since Castellanos got bumped. The slumping Stott has hit just .220 in 200 at bats out of the five spot this season, compared to .376 in 193 at bats when he hits sixth or lower in the lineup.
When all cylinders are firing, the optimal Phillies lineup probably features a hot hitting Castellanos in the four or five hole, with Bohm occupying the other spot. That takes some of the pressure off Realmuto and Stott, who can provide a spark at the bottom of the lineup along with Marsh and Rojas or Pache. Will Thomson trust that Castellanos’ struggles are over? That’s an important question that will have several repercussions up and down the lineup.
What Are The Chances That Rhys Hoskins Returns For The Postseason?
When Rhys Hoskins went down with a torn left ACL in Spring Training, most people believed that his season — and perhaps his career as a Phillie — was over. But Hoskins himself pointed to a similar injury his teammate Schwarber had suffered in 2016 and optimistically proclaimed that he was going to do everything in his power to return to play in the postseason, should his squad make it that far without him. As recently as late August, he told Phillies Nation that he still felt like he might be ready some time in October.
Tom McCarthy reported during Tuesday’s telecast that Hoskins has been swinging in the cage, which seems to be a step forward since he was last reported to be hitting off a tee. But it’s a long way from hitting in a cage to batting off of live pitching, and the team certainly can’t count on Hoskins being able to contribute.
But if he could return, just imagine what an emotional — maybe even spiritual — boost it would provide. Hoskins is the heart and soul of the team, and even if he’s ineffective, his mere availability as a pinch hitter would mean the world to the guys in the clubhouse.
If he actually came through with clutch hitting the way Schwarber did for the Cubs in his return from ACL surgery in the 2016 World Series? Hoskins might carry the team all the way to a title.
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