When president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and the Philadelphia Phillies signed Trea Turner to an 11-year/$300 million deal entering his age-30 season, it’s fair to assume they didn’t expect he would play shortstop for the entirety of his contract.
But based off of the way that Turner has played defensively during his first season with the Phillies, a move away from shortstop for the two-time All-Star may need to be expedited.
Much has been made about the impact that the standing ovation Turner received on Aug. 4 had and how it turned what had been a disastrous first season with the Phillies around — and it did, offensively. Entering play Saturday, Turner has slashed .374/.415/.782 with 16 home runs and 41 RBIs since receiving the ovation. Over that time period, the only two players in baseball who have posted a higher WAR, according to FanGraphs, are Julio Rodriguez and Mookie Betts.
Turner’s results defensively haven’t improved, though. The latest glaring miscues from Turner came in Friday night’s win over the St. Louis Cardinals, when he made two more errors in what’s been a season full of them. The first was a throwing error in the bottom of the first inning, before Turner failed to catch a ball hit at him by St. Louis shortstop Masyn Winn in the bottom of the sixth inning.
To his credit, Turner did make a nice play in the ninth inning Friday evening, ranging to his right and firing a ball to Bryson Stott at second base to record the second out in an inning where José Alvarado was teetering on disaster. But he has been a net negative defensively in 2023, and not by a little.
Turner’s -7 defensive runs saved are 19th among 21 qualified shortstops. His -2 outs above average are tied for 16th. Advanced metrics such as ultimate zone rating and range runs above average suggest that Turner is more than cut out to play shortstop from an athleticism standpoint, which isn’t surprising. But if you don’t catch the ball when you get to it, or you make an errant throw to first base, tremendous athleticism only matters so much.
In terms of back-of-the-baseball-card stats, Turner’s 20 errors are tied with Washington’s C.J. Abrams for the most among all defenders in baseball. His .961 fielding percentage is tied with Javier Báez for the worst mark among qualified shortstops.
Between 2020 and 2022 — time split between the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers — Turner posted -5 defensive runs saved and -3 outs above average. So it’s not like the Phillies thought they were getting a Jimmy Rollins-caliber defender when they signed Turner. They also probably didn’t envision him being among the worst defenders at his position in the first year of his contract.
Of course, Bryson Stott is a natural shortstop that shifted to second base when the Phillies signed Turner. An argument could definitely be made that Stott — who has six defensive runs saved and 15 outs above average at second base — shouldn’t be moved off a position where he could win a Gold Glove Award at. But Turner has seven defensive runs saved and six outs above average in 729 1/3 career innings at second base, and if he’s going to be moved off of shortstop, that’s almost certainly where it would be to.
As for Stott, he had -5 defensive runs saved and -3 outs above average in his rookie season at shortstop, but whatever issues he had at the position didn’t feel nearly as glaring as Turner’s. Stott did also play a bit of third base early in the 2022 season, so perhaps moving him to third in the future — if Bryce Harper goes back to the outfield in 2024 and Alec Bohm is either pushed to first base or not part of the team’s long-term plans — could be a consideration. Turner almost certainly doesn’t have the arm strength to play third.
The guess here is that the Phillies will run things back with Turner for another season at shortstop. He prefers shortstop, and you don’t really want to move Stott away from second base. Next Spring Training, there may well be a flurry of stories written about the offseason adjustments Turner has made at shortstop, perhaps even in this space.
But if the Phillies entered Turner’s 11-year contract thinking he would play shortstop for five or six seasons before moving to another position, that’s a plan they’ll need to adjust this offseason.
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