Categories: Analysis

Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner have become quite the duo atop Phillies lineup

Kyle Schwarber is in his second season with the Phillies. (Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

The Philadelphia Phillies were expected to have one of the best lineups in baseball this season. Even with Bryce Harper out of the fold for what was supposed to be longer than it actually was, and Rhys Hoskins’ season-ending ACL injury, Philadelphia’s batting order looked deep.

Players like Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto and newly-signed Trea Turner would be more than enough to carry the offense. Or so we thought. While the Phillies rank eighth in Major League Baseball in runs per game (4.91) through their first 154 games, that number doesn’t tell the whole story.

Things got off to a rather slow start for Rob Thomson’s club. Their 228 runs in 55 games between Opening Day and May 31 were 23rd in the sport, while their .729 OPS ranked 14th and 96 wRC+ — a number where 100 indicates league average production — was 17th.

Philadelphia’s record in that span? 25-30.

It was clear that the offense had troubles as a whole and that was affecting the club’s success. But there was one specific area that lacked most — the top of the lineup.

Philadelphia leadoff hitters between March 30 and June 1 were not good. In fact, they were downright bad. Their .237 batting average, .273 on-base percentage, .329 slugging percentage, 60 wRC+, 20 runs scored and 4.9% walk rate all fell into the bottom four spots of their categories in the big leagues.

To go even further, their top two hitters combined to hit a meager .227/.266/.352 with a 64 wRC+, 50 runs scored and 111 hits in that same period — all towards the bottom of their respective leaderboards.

For the first few months of the season, the Phillies tried a few guys atop their lineup. Turner and Schwarber started the year as the top two hitters, but they struggled.

They were each eventually moved down a few spots in the order. Bryson Stott then took over as the leadoff hitter. However, Stott then became ineffective at the plate and was eventually moved back down in the order, too.

On June 2, Schwarber was moved back up in the order to the leadoff spot. It’s a role he occupied for most of last season and one he seems rather comfortable in. The move sparked a necessary change for the reigning NL champions, helping turn their season around.

Statistically speaking, June has been Schwarber’s best month during his career. And that didn’t change this season. He posted an .853 OPS with eight home runs in the season’s third full month. It wasn’t just because of him, but it helped the Phillies put together a strong 18-8 June record, where they scored the fifth-most runs in baseball with 126.

Since the second day of June, any plate appearance Schwarber has made have come out of the leadoff spot. In that span, he’s posted an .881 OPS, 134 wRC+, 18.2% walk rate and 32 home runs. The left-handed slugger’s walk rate in that time frame is second to Shohei Ohtani (19.1%), while his homers are also second. Only Matt Olson (36) has more.

As Schwarber returned to form beginning in early June, Turner didn’t. His early-season troubles stretched into the first two months of summer. Turner continued taking most of his at-bats in the two hole and slashed .249/.311/.392 between June 2 and July 28. He was then moved to the bottom-third of the batting order.

But shortly thereafter, Turner went on a hot-streak that hasn’t ended.

Despite his hot start to August, a month in which he hit .333/.376/.685, Turner didn’t return to the second spot of the Phillies lineup until Aug. 20. And since that point, he and Schwarber have been putting on a clinic at the plate.

Since returning to the two-hole, Turner is batting .325/.383/.683 with 12 homers and a 181 wRC+. His OPS (1.067) ranks fifth among qualified hitters in that span, while his wRC+ is sixth. Meanwhile, Turner’s 12 home runs are tied for second. The only hitter with more homers in that period? Schwarber.

In that same span, Schwarber has slugged 13 homers with a 175 wRC+, while slashing .252/.411/.635. His 1.046 OPS falls seventh among qualified hitters and his wRC+ eighth.

Putting all those numbers together, the Schwarber-Turner combination atop the Phillies lineup has become one of the most lethal one-two punches in the big leagues over the last month-plus.

Their combined slash line of .280/.386/.638 is one of the best of any top-two hitters in any Major League lineup dating back to Aug. 20. Schwarber and Turner’s combined OPS (1.028), 170 wRC+ and 25 homers are atop the leaderboard in those same parameters, while their 60 runs scored are second.

With that, the Phillies have continued on as one of the highest-scoring offenses in baseball. Their 177 runs in 31 games since Aug. 20 are fifth-most among Major League teams. In those games, Philadelphia is 18-13.

Going back even further, Philadelphia’s 526 runs scored since Schwarber’s return to the leadoff spot are also fifth. The Phillies 60-38 record since June 2 is third-best in the big leagues, only falling behind the Atlanta Braves (66-32) and Los Angeles Dodgers (60-36).

What was once a weakness for the Phillies has turned into an insane strength. The Schwarber-Turner combo atop the lineup has worked wonders and Philadelphia will need that to continue as they make a push towards another postseason run.