Phillies Notes: A concerning trend for Walker and Nola, Kyle Schwarber on his WAR
SAN DIEGO — Taijuan Walker took the mound in San Diego on Monday with a 3-0 lead. He was attempting to — and failed — to reverse a worrisome trend. He left the mound after the first inning with 28 pitches thrown and a run in on a Fernando Tatis Jr. solo home run.
Efficient beginnings to games are becoming more and more elusive for the Phillies. Monday’s win marked the fourth straight game Phillies starters have thrown at least 20 pitches in the first inning. Coincidentally, the Phillies have also allowed first-inning runs in two of the last four games.
“Whether it’s just a blimp in our radar or something in our process that we have to change, we’ll look at it for sure,” Rob Thomson said after Monday’s game.
Dating back to Aug. 12, the Phillies have allowed a first inning run in nine of the last 20 games. They have also won the last six games in which they have allowed at least one run to score in the opening frame.
Falling behind early has not come back to haunt the Phillies in recent weeks because the offense has been that good, but that doesn’t mean the Phillies should take these struggles lightly.
Walker has been plagued the most by the long first inning. He’s thrown at least 20 pitches in the first inning in eight of his last 10 starts. He’s allowed at least one run to score in the first inning in six straight starts. His last scoreless first inning was July 25 and his last 1-2-3 first inning was June 23.
Thomson said after the game that the Phillies are thinking about changing up his pregame routine to combat the slow starts.
Maybe Aaron Nola can benefit from a similar tweak.
Nola has thrown at least 20 pitches in four of his last five starts. His last 1-2-3 first inning was Aug. 4. Zack Wheeler has mostly kept things under control in the first inning since he allowed four runs to score against the Nationals in the Little League Classic on Aug. 20. Cristopher Sánchez has thrown 20 pitches or more in the first inning in only one of his starts this season. Michael Lorenzen’s only 20-plus pitch first inning with the Phillies came when he threw a no-hitter against the Nationals on Aug. 10.
It’s more of a Nola and Walker problem than anything else and it’s imperative that the two Phillies starters clean it up by the time the postseason comes around. If the rotation lines up the right way, Nola will pitch Game 2 of a Wild Card series, which is a swing game in either direction. He was brilliant in Game 2 of last year’s series against the Cardinals, but he’s going to need to find that magic again if he’s going to replicate that start.
If necessary, Walker would most likely start a must-win Game 3. If the Phillies sweep the Wild Card series, Walker could start Game 1 of an NLDS against either the Dodgers or Braves. Walker not having his best stuff in the first inning against the best lineups in baseball could have massive consequences.
With a reasonable sample size of slow starts available for the Phillies to parse through, maybe the Phillies should consider using an opener for Walker.
Kyle Schwarber on his WAR
If you’re new to baseball, the widely-cited stat known as WAR stands for wins above replacement. It’s an all-encompassing statistic that rounds up the cumulative value of a baseball player. If a player has two wins above replacement, that means he is worth two wins to a team in comparison to a “replacement level player.” If a player has negative two wins above replacement, that means the club would theoretically be better by two wins if they replace him with some Joe Schmo from Triple A.
There are many variants of WAR. The publicly available WAR metrics from sites like FanGraphs, Baseball Reference and Baseball Prospectus all have their own way of calculating WAR.
It’s a stat that’s helpful and makes sense in most cases. The top four FanGraphs WAR or fWAR leaders in the league are Shohei Ohtani (8.9 as both a pitcher and hitter), Mookie Betts (7.7), Freddie Freeman (6.8) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (6.8). All four players will either win or be in consideration for MVP.
It’s not helpful when it comes to evaluating Kyle Schwarber’s season. For the longest time, the publicly available WAR metrics had Schwarber as a below replacement-level player. He has 40 home runs, 89 RBIs and 109 walks this season, but the stat punishes him for his defense in left field. His -20 defensive runs saved is the worst among all position players in baseball.
It’s a story of a season that numbers cannot tell. It’s unconventional, but the Phillies lineup just works when Schwarber leads off. Only two players in the National League have more home runs than Schwarber. His long at-bats that end in walks are invaluable, but when he’s not walking or hitting a home run, he’s either striking out or softly rolling over to first. He has more home runs (40) than singles (39).
His stat line on Monday epitomizes his season. He walked three times, homered and singled. An inning after he hit his 40th home run, he could not catch a ball to his right that would have been caught by most major league outfielders. It did not lead to a run scored, but you can count on two hands the amount of losses that have featured a questionable Schwarber play that may have cost the Phillies a game.
He’s a one-win player according to FanGraphs WAR, a 0.3-win player according to Baseball Reference WAR and a 2.1-win player according to Baseball Prospectus WAR.
Does he care about all these numbers? No. For him, it’s about trying to do what he can to help the team win games.
“It’s not a shot at WAR or anything like that,” Schwarber said. “I just think for me, personally, I just want to go out there and win baseball games. I’ve gotten through the arbitration system and all that and I’m here for three years and now it’s time to win baseball games.”
Phillies Notes
- Thomson said on Monday that Bryce Harper’s back is feeling better. They’ll see if he can play first base on Tuesday.
- Despite the heavy bullpen usage in recent days, the Phillies do not expect to make a roster move to get a fresh arm for Tuesday. Craig Kimbrel and José Alvarado have worked back-to-back days. Jeff Hoffman has pitched three out of the last four days.
- Garrett Stubbs is expected to start behind the plate for the Phillies on Tuesday.
- ICYMI: Thomson provided an injury update on Rhys Hoskins before Monday’s game against the Padres.
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