Phillies news and rumors 9/25: Statistical milestones to watch as regular season closes

Trea Turner is on the cusp of a couple milestones in the season’s final week. (Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

For the majority of teams as every regular season comes to an end, talking about individual milestones or statistics is a grave sin likely to rile up swaths of deeply offended tweeters.

Teams fighting for favorable postseason positioning: No one cares. Get home-field, or a first-round bye. Teams fighting for a playoff spot: No one cares. Make the playoffs. Teams out of the playoff picture entirely: No one cares. Sell the team.

But there are a few clubs for whom none of the above categories apply — whose playoff spot is secure, whose playoff positioning won’t change the rest of the way.

The Phillies are about to become one of those teams. Really, they already are. A postseason berth, and home-field advantage in the Wild Card Series, could officially materialize as early as Tuesday. Until then, they’re foregone conclusions.

It means the final week of the season is good for two things, in order of importance: tuning up for October, and some good ole’ stat padding.

Let’s take the opportunity while we can, because they don’t come around too often. Here are some individual statistical chases to keep an eye on as the Phillies’ regular season winds down over the next seven days.

Trea Turner — most stolen bases without getting caught

Turner currently has the record for steals in a season without getting caught: 29, breaking Chase Utley’s 23 in 2009. Turner can keep his hold on the record by simply applying the brakes — or never reaching base, for that matter — but that’s no fun. (Also of note for Turner: Two more homers would tie his career-high of 28, set in 2021.)

Bryce Harper — a .300/.400/.500 season

This would be the fourth such season of Harper’s career — his MVP years in 2015 and 2021, plus 2017. He’s got the most work to do in the batting average (.292) and slugging (.491) categories, but a hot week could do it. His OBP enters the day at .398, so he’s right in the thick of that chase. There are just five players this season in the .300/.400/.500 club with at least 25 games played: Yandy Díaz, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuña Jr. Good company.

Bryson Stott — under 100 strikeouts

Stott doesn’t have an obvious statistical chase — he’s currently at a .751 OPS, though .750 feels insufficiently significant — but his breakout season is worthy of a mention. How’s this: If he can go the last six games with no more than one strikeout, he’d be under 100 for the year — impressive, in this day and age, for a player with more than 145 games played. He’s had 10 six-game, one-or-zero strikeout spans this season, and given the standings, he might not even play all six. It can be done.

Alec Bohm — 20 home runs

Whether this has been a true breakout year for Bohm is up for debate, but the power jump has been nice. Sure, 20 isn’t the ultimate end goal, but a “2” in front of the home run column always looks better than a “1.” He’d also give the Phillies a little bit of franchise history if he hits that 20th big fly.

Nick Castellanos — .800 OPS

If Castellanos had singled in his final plate appearance on Sunday, he would’ve ended the day with his season OPS above .800 for the first time since July 21. But he walked. It’s at .799 with a week to go. Seems doable. (With one more homer, Castellanos would also reach 30 on the year for just the second time in his career. It’s been a nice bounceback for him.)

Aaron Nola — 200 strikeouts

Nola probably has just one start left this regular season: Tuesday against the Pirates. He needs six more strikeouts to reach 200 for the fifth consecutive non-pandemic season.

Kyle Schwarber — the weirdest season in baseball history

The crown jewel of them all. If Schwarber keeps his batting average — currently .197 — below the Mendoza Line, he’ll become the first player in MLB history with 40 homers and a sub-.200 batting average in a season.

With five more free passes, Schwarber would also tie the franchise record for walks in a season, which Lenny Dykstra set with 129 in 1993. Add in more than 200 strikeouts, and you’ve got a season for the history books, no matter how the final week goes. Let’s just keep the singles to a minimum.

The Phillies — a 90-win season

Simple: 3-3 from here on out. It would be the franchise’s first 90-win season since 2011, when they won 102 games, and their 16th overall.

Must-read (or listen) Phillies content

An updated look at how close the Phillies are to clinching a playoff spot and home-field in the first round, from Phillies Nation‘s Destiny Lugardo.
Phillies Nation‘s Bailey Digh wrote about the 1-2 punch atop the Phillies’ lineup, which Schwarber and Turner have turned into one of the league’s best the last month-plus.
Orion Kerkering made his MLB debut on Sunday. He was billed as electric. He was indeed electric. The Athletic‘s Matt Gelb has more on him and the Phillies’ playoff pitching puzzle at large.