Categories: Phillies Nuggets with Tim Kelly

Bryce Harper’s defensive future is the great mystery of the Phillies offseason

Will Bryce Harper remain at first base in 2024? (Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire)

Aaron Nola’s future will be the No. 1 topic surrounding the Philadelphia Phillies this offseason, but it could be argued that where Bryce Harper fits in defensively in 2024 could have just as many long-term consequences as whether or not the ace is retained.

After undergoing Tommy John surgery last offseason, Harper returned as a DH for the Phillies in early May. With Rhys Hoskins out for the season after tearing his left ACL in Spring Training, Harper learned how to play first base and did so at a proficient level for 303 innings during the regular season, and all 13 postseason games.

So will the Phillies keep Harper at first base, move him back to the outfield or have him play some combination of both in 2024? Having the answer to that question would unlock quite a bit about the offseason plans for the Phillies, but it’s a conclusion president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said the franchise still needs to reach in Thursday’s end-of-season press conference.

“Another good question, and one of the things I will say is that as we’re having this meeting, our season just ended two days ago,” Dombrowski said. “And we’re either having it today or after the World Series is over, because that’s Major League Baseball’s requirements. So there may be a question or two that you’ll ask me that I don’t have the full answers to.

“And I don’t know what’s going to happen with Bryce,” Dombrowski acknowledged. “We need to sit down with Bryce and ask him what his preference is and sit down with a heart-to-heart on what he wants to do.”

Dombrowski did go on to acknowledge that the conversation with Harper about where he fits in defensively will have to take place “relatively soon.” That’s true because within five days of the World Series concluding, the Phillies will need to decide whether or not they are going to extend a qualifying offer to Rhys Hoskins before he hits free agency.

While the offer could allow the Phillies to receive draft compensation if Hoskins declines it and departs in free agency, there’s also a very real chance that after missing all of 2023, the slugger takes the one-year/$20.5 million deal to rebuild his value.

Of course, if Hoskins accepts the qualifying offer, the Phillies would need somewhere for him to play. If the plan is for Kyle Schwarber to be the primary DH in 2024, it’s hard to see how Hoskins would fit in if Harper remains at first base. If Harper returns to the outfield, that would seemingly open the door for Hoskins to come back — if he’s willing to take the qualifying offer or another one-year deal — for 2024.

Uncertainty about Harper is why Dombrowski wasn’t willing to say whether the Phillies will extend the qualifying offer to Hoskins Friday. Heck, Dombrowski was able to flat out say the Phillies hope to retain Nola, but while he spoke glowingly about Hoskins as a person, he couldn’t even vaguely say that they hope to re-sign him. A lot of that hinges on Harper.

“In Aaron’s case, it’s very simple for me to say we want to pursue him because we need a starting pitcher and all that,” Dombrowski said. “As far as Rhys is concerned, there’s still some moving parts that I’m just not sure of different answers at this time. So I can’t answer that question at this time.”

Harper posted one defensive run saved in his relatively limited time at first base in 2023, so there certainly is an argument to be made for keeping him there moving forward.

“I thought he was great,” manager Rob Thomson said of Harper’s performance at first base Thursday. “I was pleasantly surprised by how he played.”

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As far as whether playing first base might help Harper to age better, it’s complicated. Yes, there is significantly more stress on your legs and arms if you play right field, as opposed to first base. Thomson was careful to point out, though, that playing first base certainly isn’t easy, nor is it without its own physical challenges. There’s sprinting to first base to cover it and your reaction time on diving plays needs to be much quicker than it is in the outfield.

Additionally, as Harper was dealing back tightness in late August, the Phillies used him at DH and were careful not to rush him back to playing first base. Thomson cited the amount of bending over that you have to do at first base at the time. It’s unclear if he would have been able to play in the outfield with the same tightness, but the point is, playing any defensive positions in the majors is going to take a toll on you.

With that said, it’s possible that the remaining eight years on Harper’s contract — and perhaps beyond, if you listen to the two-time NL MVP — go better if he’s playing first base than roaming the outfield. And with a full offseason to prepare for the position, the Phillies do believe Harper could be even better at first base than he was in his initial look at the position.

“Oh yeah, I think there’s still more to grow there,” Thomson said of Harper. “I think I’m surprised at the level that he played at this year, but I think he can even get better.”

If Harper and the Phillies decide he’s going to go back to the outfield in 2024, it perhaps shouldn’t be assumed that it will definitely be in right field.

Nick Castellanos is a creature of habit, and while he’s never going to grade out well defensively, he did seem much more comfortable in right field this season than he was in 2022. In his career, Castellanos has logged 6,470 innings in right field, as opposed to 99 1/3 innings in left field. When he briefly played in left field at the beginning of the 2022 season — before Harper tore his right UCL and couldn’t play in right field — Castellanos looked uncomfortable.

Harper’s defensive metrics have been inconsistent throughout the course of his career. He’s had some years where he’s graded out as one of the better right fielders in baseball, and others where he’s been among the worst. He’s played 1,596 innings in left field in his career, and playing his home games at Citizens Bank Park, a move to the other side could allow him to return to the outfield without putting as much stress on his body as right field takes. Some combination of Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache would then play center field, under this scenario.

There are a lot of moving parts tied to Harper’s decision, perhaps including whether his friend in Hoskins is a realistic option to come back to the Phillies in 2024. The Phillies say that while they’ll consult with Harper, the organization will ultimately make the choice on how the defensive alignment looks in 2024. But Harper usually gets what he wants, and what he decides this offseason will determine what path the Phillies take in roster construction for 2024.

“Well that’s where it’s one that I think it’s more sitting down with Bryce and seeing what he feels. But I also don’t want to put it on Bryce,” Dombrowski acknowledged.

“That’s something that we have to decide ourselves. I mean, we want his input because it’s his career and all, and then we just have to kind of adjust from there.”