Phillies news and rumors 10/7: These matchups could swing the NLDS

Will Bryce Harper get to face Raisel Iglesias in the NLDS? (Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

I offered up one of these “matchups to monitor” guides ahead of the Wild Card Series, and I don’t mean to gloat — but actually, I do. I nailed it.

Josh Bell was listed as a vulnerability for Craig Kimbrel. Bell roped a 105.3-mph double on the third Kimbrel pitch he saw in the ninth inning of Game 1. Gregory Soto hadn’t allowed a hit to Luis Arráez in eight at bats. Make it nine. Nick Castellanos was tabbed as a boom-or-bust candidate against David Robertson. The ex-Phillie set him down on three pitches.

The caveat here is that none of it mattered in a Wild Card Series as unevenly matched as that one. In this NLDS? Things will loom much larger. So if you paid any attention to those — or even if you didn’t — these ones are worth a longer look ahead of a series in which one pitch could change everything.

Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper against the three relievers most likely to face them

How Brian Snitker chooses to handle the first three spots of the Phillies’ lineup will be fascinating.

Iglesias has been the Braves’ most trusted reliever this season. A.J. Minter has been their best lefty. Brad Hand is the only other lefty who figures to play an integral role in the Braves’ bullpen this series.

Here are Schwarber’s, Turner’s and Harper’s numbers against each of them.

Long story short: It will be Minter first, unless Snitker’s lost his mind. But what if he’s been used already? Do the Braves trust the lefty Hand, who has a 5.53 ERA overall this season — and a 7.50 mark in 20 appearances with the Braves? Or Iglesias, their best reliever overall, but who has been mashed consistency by each of those three — and likely cleanup hitter Alec Bohm (3-for-5), just for good measure?

How the Braves approach the top of the Phillies’ lineup is essentially: Minter, then pick your poison. It could be a spot for the Phillies to strike.

Ozzie Albies against Jeff Hoffman

The Phillies might be inclined to use Hoffman against Ronald Acuña Jr. (leadoff) and Austin Riley (three-hole), two righty sluggers atop the Braves’ lineup. But in between those two is a trap of sorts: the switch-hitting Albies, whose numbers are significantly worse against righties this year but who’s 3-for-7 with a double, triple and homer against Hoffman. He’s not as fear-inducing as Acuña, Riley or cleanup hitter Matt Olson — but if Hoffman struggles with him again, he might be in for a long inning in a big spot.

J.T. Realmuto against Kirby Yates

Realmuto is 0-for-5 with four strikeouts against Yates in his career. It’s not a big enough sample to warrant huge concern, but it’s a big enough sample for Snitker and the Braves to target that matchup in need of a strikeout. With Harper, Bohm and Bryson Stott creating some traffic in front of Realmuto, a Yates matchup — though not daunting on its face — could help the Braves wiggle out of a jam.

Matt Olson against Craig Kimbrel

It’s hard to imagine the Phillies will get too serious with matchup-ball if Kimbrel is available in a save situation: He’s getting the ball. That’s not to say the task will be an easy one, and Olson just might be the toughest of them all. He’s 3-for-5 with a homer in his career against Kimbrel, another small-sample-size-but-something-to-note if the spot presents itself.

Marcell Ozuna against Michael Lorenzen

It’s fun to get a little funky with one of these. Matt Strahm (instead of José Alvarado) vs. Jazz Chisholm Jr. was a semi-serious proposal made before the start of the Wild Card Series. Bear with me here.

Marcell Ozuna had a monstrous 2023 season. Forty homers. OPS of .905. Mashed lefties. Mashed righties.

Could his NLDS kryptonite be … Michael Lorenzen?

Probably not. But … maybe? Ozuna did mash both righties and lefties this year, but his slugging percentage was exactly 100 points lower against the former. Ozuna is a career 3-for-23 with a double, triple (but no homers) and eight strikeouts against Lorenzen, who’s settled into his new role after his bullpen move in late September.

Kimbrel, Hoffman, Orion Kerkering and Seranthony Domínguez would probably all get the Ozuna assignment before Lorenzen. It would be gutsy, and a very particular set of circumstances would have to materialize for it to happen. But sometimes in October, moves like that are necessary — and the risks that pay off are ones that could swing a series. This, out-of-the-box as it may be, might be one of those risks. If not, hey. At least it’s fun to think about.

Must-read (or watch) Phillies content

Ranger Suárez will start Game 1. Phillies Nation‘s Destiny Lugardo wrote about Rob Thomson’s rationale and how Suárez matches up with Spencer Strider.
The latest Phillies Nation Podcast breaks down all things NLDS.
Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer wrote about Johan Rojas’ unexpected rise to the Phillies’ starting center field job.
Alex Coffey of the Inquirer wrote about the bond between Nick Castellanos and Weston Wilson, aided in part by a tattoo.
Matt Gelb of The Athletic wrote about some of the other matchups that could prove crucial in the NLDS for the Phillies or Braves.