Categories: Phillies Beat with Destiny Lugardo

A stat that explains why the Phillies can match Braves’ power bats

Nick Castellanos’ home run total increased dramatically over the last two months of the regular season. (Cheryl Pursell/Phillies Nation)

ATLANTA — One of the perks of traveling during the postseason is getting the chance to survey the pulse of the opponent’s local fanbase.

There is anxiety in the Atlanta area over another National League Division Series matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies.

It’s understandable. The Braves are a 104-win team, but in baseball, it’s been a long time since the team in each league with the best record automatically advanced to the World Series. Their season comes down to a five-game series against the team they did not want to see in the first round. Remember how you felt heading into the Division Series in 2011?

There are scares. Nearly the entire Braves lineup slumped for four games last season against a Phillies pitching staff that was prepared for the challenge. They lost home field advantage in Game 1 and looked like they didn’t belong in both games played in Philadelphia in front of a raucous Citizens Bank Park crowd.

It goes back to 1993. Atlanta won 104 games — the same win total the 2023 Braves reached this year — only to lose in six in the National League Championship Series to the 97-win band of misfits.

Braves fans have plenty of reasons to be nervous, but there’s a lot of optimism and rightfully so. Atlanta enters the postseason with a fully healthy lineup that has posted historic numbers during the regular season. Ronald Acuña Jr. is far from the player that stood still in the outfield during J.T. Realmuto’s inside-the-park home run in last year’s Game 4. Marcell Ozuna went from DFA candidate in 2022 to 40 home runs in 2023. Ozzie Albies missed last year’s DS with a fractured pinkie finger, but he’s healthy and dangerous from the No. 2 spot. Matt Olson broke Andruw Jones’ franchise record with 54 home runs in 2023.

It goes on and on. The Braves lineup is relentless and that doesn’t factor in the Phillies dealing with Spencer Strider in Games 1 and 4. Another upset seems impossible to pull off.

But it can be done and judging by some conversations I’ve heard on Atlanta sports talk radio, local fans are wary of another first round exit.

The biggest concern is the starting pitching. They are expecting another Strider masterclass on Saturday and taking their chances on Max Fried’s left index finger holding up in Game 2.

Game 3 in Philadelphia is where it gets tricky. Bryce Elder or AJ Smith-Shawver could start the first game in Philadelphia. Elder is a concern. He made the All-Star team this year, but fell off a cliff in the second half to the tune of a 5.11 ERA. A local sports talk radio host advocated for a bullpen game with top lefty reliever A.J. Minter as the opener in Game 3. Smith-Shawver could give the Braves length in Game 2 if Fried has to exit early with blister issues.

It’s why winning the first two games at home are a must for Atlanta fans. The Phillies losing two straight would be a death sentence to their chances in the series with Strider lined up for Game 4, but at least one Phillies victory at Truist Park over the next three days puts Philadelphia in a very good spot with Nola and Wheeler pitching in Games 3 and 5.

But the conversation over the airwaves goes back to the Braves lineup being too good for any pitching staff to handle.

Atlanta’s power bats alone can win the series, but the same can be said for the Phillies’ collection of sluggers. The Braves hit a major-league record-tying 307 home runs over the regular season, but dating back to Aug. 1, the power numbers between the two teams are similar.

One Atlanta sports talk radio host pointed out that since Aug. 1, the Phillies and Braves both hit a major-league leading 107 home runs. The next closest team, the Minnesota Twins, hit 92.

Outhomering the opponent correlates well with success in the postseason. The Braves’ entire body of work is impressive, but the Phillies’ big bats have picked it up over the stretch run.

Kyle Schwarber went from 27 home runs to 47 from Aug. 1 to the end of the season. Nick Castellanos’ home run total increased from 14 to 29 in that two-month span. Bryce Harper went from five to 21, Trea Turner went from 10 to 26 and Alec Bohm went from 10 to 20.

The Division Series could be a slugfest and while conventional wisdom says the Braves would have the advantage, don’t count out the Phillies.