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Braves’ Max Fried’s availability could be a huge factor in NLDS

Max Fried is dealing with a blister on his left index finger. (Photo by Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire)

As the Philadelphia Phillies pummeled the Miami Marlins in the National League Wild Card Series, the Atlanta Braves held simulated games at Truist Park in front of fans.

Left-handed starter Max Fried pitched in Tuesday’s game. He threw 76 pitches through five innings and allowed six hits and three runs (two earned). He struck out only one batter and allowed back-to-back home runs to Kevin Pillar and Sean Murphy.

Why does this matter? It’s because Fried was pitching in his first game since Sept. 21. He was placed on the 15-day injured list on Sept. 22 with a blister on his left index finger.

Fried reportedly wore a bandage on his left index finger over the final four innings he pitched. He will not be allowed to wear one when he starts Game 2 of the NLDS, which is the expectation around the Braves.

The Athletic’s David O’Brien noted that Fried wearing the bandage could have contributed to his lack of sharpness in the simulated game. Manager Brian Snitker gave a positive update on Fried to Braves reporters.

“It looks good without anything on it, ” Snitker told the media, including MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. “It healed very well.”

The biggest concern, as Bowman writes, is his ability to start multiple games in a playoff series. Fried could be ready to go for a Game 2 start, but his availability for a potential Game 5 is a question mark.

And really, if there are concerns about Fried being able to pitch four days following a start with the blister, why should people believe Fried starting Game 2 is a lock?

A big reason why Philadelphia pulled off a massive upset over Atlanta in last year’s Division Series is because the Braves rotation was compromised.

Spencer Strider’s status for the DS in 2022 was up in the air due to an oblique injury. He started Game 3 at Citizens Bank Park and the rest was history. Fried, the Braves’ Game 1 starter last year, was still dealing with lingering flu symptoms when he gave up six runs (four earned) over 3 1/3 innings. He didn’t use it as an excuse when he spoke with reporters after the game, but it was clear that he was still dealing with illness.

Last year, it was Fried and Strider. This year, it’s Fried and Charlie Morton. The ageless Morton, who has a history of dominating in the postseason for the Braves, is out for the series with right index finger inflammation.

With an off day in between Games 1 and 2, the Braves are expected to start Strider in Games 1 and 4. Bryce Elder, who was excellent in the first half, but has a 4.70 ERA in the second half and struggled in a recent start against the Phillies, could get the ball in Game 3. Allan Winans and AJ Smith-Shawver could also be in consideration to get the start.

Rob Thomson did not announce a Game 1 starter on Wednesday night, but it will likely be Ranger Suárez. Zack Wheeler is expected to get Game 2 and Aaron Nola is lined up to pitch Game 3 at Citizens Bank Park. Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez and Taijuan Walker could be options for Game 4 and Wheeler could return for a potential Game 5 on normal rest.

The key to this series is to survive the Braves’ all-time offense. Atlanta led the league in runs, hits, home runs, batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. They are the only team in MLB history to slug over .500 in a single season at .501, beating the previous record high of .495 set by the Houston Astros in 2019.

Slug plays in the postseason, so the Phillies pitching staff could use a repeat of last year’s dominance over Atlanta’s lineup. Just about everyone outside of catcher Travis d’Arnaud went ice cold during the Division Series.

The circumstances are different this time around. Marcell Ozuna is back to being one of the best power threats in baseball along with Matt Olson, who quietly hit 54 home runs for the Braves during the regular season. Ronald Acuña Jr. is healthy and could singlehandedly win games with his combination of power, speed and contact ability.

The challenge is greater, but the prospect of facing the best team in baseball in less daunting when you factor in the Braves’ starting pitching issues.

Fried’s health will be a storyline to follow in the coming days. If the blister is as bad as it seems, the Phillies could have an opening.