Categories: Phillies Nuggets with Tim Kelly

After uneven contract year, Aaron Nola hopes to remain with Phillies

Aaron Nola can become a free agent this offseason. (Cheryl Pursell)

Aaron Nola won’t have a Pat Burrell-esque moment, where as the longest-tenured player on the Philadelphia Phillies he leads a World Series parade down Broad St. before entering into an uncertain future in free agency.

At least not in 2023, that is.

A second consecutive trip to the World Series felt inevitable for the Phillies when they took a commanding 2-0 lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks to start the NLCS. Even after losing Games 3 and 4, the Phillies won Game 5 in Arizona and needed to win one of their final two games at Citizens Bank Park to punch their ticket to the Fall Classic.

That didn’t happen, as the Phillies lost Games 6 and 7 at home and watched the Diamondbacks celebrate a shocking NL pennant victory on their home field. Nola — who was brilliant for most of the playoff run — underwhelmed in his Game 6 start, allowing six hits and four earned runs over 4 1/3 innings pitched.

“They pitched us well, man. They really did,” Nola said of the Diamondbacks. “They played good baseball … their starters pitched well … they kept us off balance. They had some good swings on some pitches that we threw … timely hitting for them … timely running [of] the bases. So, I think that’s kind of how it went for them.”

As for Nola, it was a bizarre contract year. He posted a 4.46 ERA and allowed a career-high 32 home runs, but for the second consecutive year started the game that allowed the Phillies to clinch a playoff spot, allowing just one run over 6 2/3 innings pitched against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sept. 26. He then proceeded to allow just two earned runs over the course of his first three starts of the 2023 postseason, ultimately finishing the playoffs with a 2.35 ERA across 23 innings.

So how would Nola reflect on his season as a whole?

“Up and down, kind of inconsistent,” Nola admitted. “[I] felt good late in the year, the last few starts and then throughout the postseason. Yesterday [Game 6] was kind of a little hiccup, but I did everything I could.”

The Phillies and Nola weren’t able to work out a long-term contract during their Spring Training negotiations, with both sides agreeing to table discussions until after the season and maintaining a positive tone about their relationship.

However, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported earlier this month that while the Phillies hoped to tack on four or five seasons to the $16 million Nola made in 2023, the right-hander’s camp “was seeking an eight-year contract in excess of $200 million” back in the spring. If that is indeed the case, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and Joe Longo — Nola’s agent at Paragon Sports International — have quite the bridge to gap to work out a new deal.

And perhaps, Nola’s camp won’t be motivated to come too far off of their initial asking price. Will Nola — who turned 30 in June — get an eight-year deal this offseason? Probably not. But even though he’s coming off of a down year, Nola still accumulated 193 2/3 regular season innings. Since the start of the 2018 season, Nola’s 1,065 1/3 innings are second only to Gerrit Cole. The bet here is that a team will be willing to give him six years, based off of his durability and the fact that he has two top-four finishes in NL Cy Young Award voting on his resume. Heck, in a weak pitching market, seven years or at least an attainable seventh-year option isn’t out of the question for Nola.

Whether the Phillies would feel comfortable going to those lengths to retain Nola or not is unclear. What’s also unclear is how the Phillies would make a third consecutive deep playoff run in 2024 if they allowed Nola to walk this offseason. What’s most clear is that Nola will have plenty of suitors this offseason, with the St. Louis Cardinals already well known as a potential suitor. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants are just a few other contenders, who, in theory, make sense as possible Nola landing spots.

A first-round pick in 2014, Nola has spent parts of nine seasons in red pinstripes. Does he envision his career continuing in Philadelphia?

“I hope so, yeah,” Nola said shortly after the Phillies were eliminated Tuesday night.