Categories: Phillies Nuggets with Tim Kelly

Aaron Nola on if future is with Phillies: ‘I hope so, I really do’

Aaron Nola can become a free agent after the season. (Tim Kelly/Phillies Nation)

Whether Aaron Nola‘s final start of the 2023 season comes in Game 2 of the NLCS or sometime later this postseason, the veteran righty hopes it’s not the last one that he makes as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies.

For much of the season, Nola has been hesitant to talk about his future in Philadelphia, as he prepares to become a free agent this offseason. But before he starts for the Phillies in Game 2 of the NLCS against the Arizona Diamondbacks, the 30-year-old did reiterate that he hopes to remain in red pinstripes beyond this season.

“Yeah, I hope so. I really do,” Nola said Monday. “I love it here. Obviously, it’s the only place I’ve been. I came up through some special times in the rebuilding era and getting to witness and be a part of a lot of different type of teams.

“To be on a team like I am now, it’s really cool and special to see and to be a part of all the success and failures to get to where we are now,” Nola continued.

Back in January, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said that the team hoped to reach a long-term deal with Nola.

“It’s something we would like to do,” Dombrowski said, according to Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer. “We want Aaron to be in the organization for a long time, no question. We love him. We love his abilities. I know he likes it in Philadelphia. So that’s something that will be in our mind.

“It’s never easy to be able to get done, but we’d love to keep Aaron in the organization for a long time.”

However, after the Phillies and Nola’s representatives at Paragon Sports International engaged in extension discussions during Spring Training, the two sides agreed to table talks until after the season.

“We think the world of him,” Dombrowski told Coffey. “Quality pitcher, quality human being, but sometimes you get to this point where you’re not able to consummate a deal that both sides feel comfortable. We’re very open-minded to trying to sign him at the end of the season. We’re hopeful he’ll remain a Phillie for a long time.”

The good thing for both sides is that there didn’t seem to be any bad blood after initial discussions, with Nola’s agent Joe Longo saying that “we had good communication with the Phillies” and that the two sides would resume contract talks when the 2023 season concluded.

The bad news is that it appears that the two sides seem far apart on expectations for a new deal, or at least did prior to the season. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported earlier this week that Nola’s camp was targeting “an eight-year contract in excess of $200 million,” while the Phillies were more comfortable giving an extension that was “four or five years” long.

It should be noted that any deal that would have come together before the 2023 campaign would have been in addition to the $16 million club option that Nola is playing on this season

. It’s also likely that these were just the starting points for both sides in negotiations. Still, they were far enough apart that they agreed a new deal couldn’t be reached before the regular season began.

Additionally, when Nola’s camp was apparently seeking a deal worth over $200 million, he was coming off of a season where he logged 205 innings in the regular season while posting a 3.25 ERA, a 2.58 FIP and leading all pitchers in FanGraphs‘ calculation of WAR at 6.3.

It was an objectively disappointing contract year for Nola in 2023, because despite pitching 193 2/3 innings, he posted a 4.46 ERA, 4.03 FIP and a 3.9 WAR. After allowing 19 home runs during the 2022 regular season, Nola gave up a career-high 32 home runs in 2023. Nola may not be operating in quite as much of a position of strength as he would have been if he became a free agent a year ago.

At the same time, Nola is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA this postseason. For the second season in a row, he was excellent in the game that punched the Phillies ticket to the playoffs, allowing just one run over 6 2/3 innings pitched against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sept. 26. Whatever money Nola may have cost himself during a disappointing regular season, he could very well earn it back if he helps to put the Phillies on a parade float in the coming weeks.

The other reality is that even at his worst, Nola still pitched nearly 200 innings this season. Teams are desperate for the reliability of having Nola every five days, even if exactly how effective he is varies. And the market this offseason will probably play into the hands of Nola, as opposed to the Phillies.

Likely NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell will be a free agent this offseason, but he’s never pitched more than 180 2/3 innings in a season. Nola has done it four times, while pitching exactly 180 2/3 innings in 2021. Julio Urías’ MLB career may be over after a second domestic violence arrest. Sonny Gray had an excellent season, but he’s going to turn 34 in November and previously struggled to pitch in the big market of New York. Marcus Stroman is a very good pitcher, but he’s entering his age-33 season and hasn’t pitched 200 innings in a season since 2017. Lucas Giolito has a disastrous contract year. Shohei Ohtani is in his own class, but isn’t expected to pitch in 2024.

The St. Louis Cardinals have already been rumored to be interested in Nola this offseason, and they’ll hardly be the last team. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants are just a few contending teams that would make sense as landing spots for Nola. He’ll be hard-pressed to get an eight-year deal, but the guess here is that it will take a six-year commitment to retain the services of Nola. We’ll see if the Phillies are comfortable giving that to a pitcher who has a ton of innings on his arm and is coming off of the worst regular season of his career. If not, someone — or multiple someones — likely will be.