Phillies news and rumors 10/4: Aaron Nola has a chance to flip the script on his 2023 starting tonight

Aaron Nola is in his ninth season with the Phillies. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

Aaron Nola has been a member of the Philadelphia Phillies organization for a little more than nine years. And since being selected with the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft, he’s become one of the more accomplished pitchers in Phillies franchise history.

The 30-year-old right-hander is seventh all-time in starts for Philadelphia with 235, while his 1,582 strikeouts rank fifth. Nola is first in strikeouts-per-nine-innings-pitched with 10.013 and ninth with a 1.129 WHIP. He’s tied for 13th in wins with 90.

To further expand on his strikeout numbers, Nola is second all-time with five 200-plus strikeout seasons for the Phillies, trailing only Steve Carlton (7). Those five seasons have all come consecutively in the last five 162-game seasons. Nola is the first Phillies pitcher to accomplish such a feat.

The veteran starter has had his fair share of struggles during his career. He’s also had plenty of success. For the most part, this year has fallen into the struggles category.

Across 32 regular-season starts, Nola pitched 193 2/3 innings to the tune of a 4.46 ERA. He allowed 32 home runs and walked 2.1 hitters-per-nine-innings-pitched, much higher than his 1.3 walks-per-nine from a year ago.

That being said, Nola has a chance to flip the script on his 2023 starting tonight. And the chances of that look somewhat promising.

In his final two starts of the regular season, Nola tossed 12 2/3 innings while giving up three earned runs on 10 hits. He allowed just one home run and didn’t walk a single batter in those outings. He struck out a combined 16 hitters. Those are encouraging numbers.

He’ll pitch tonight on eight days rest. His previous start was last Tuesday. Nola made five starts this year on six-plus days rest. His ERA in those starts (3.68) is lower than when he started on four days (4.45) and five days (4.71) of rest.

Nola will also be pitching in his home ballpark. In 14 starts at Citizens Bank Park this year, the righty pitched 87 2/3 innings with a 3.29 ERA while giving up 12 home runs. His road splits? 18 starts with a 5.43 ERA and 20 homers surrendered.

Pitching in Game 2 of a Wild Card Series isn’t new for Nola, either. In last year’s 2-0 Game 2 Phillies win over the St. Louis Cardinals, he pitched 6 2/3 shutout innings.

The only numbers that don’t favor him are those against the Miami Marlins, the team he’ll face tonight, from this season. In three starts against the Fish, Nola had a 6.75 ERA in 16 innings. He gave up five home runs.

All in all, Nola, a free agent this offseason, has a chance to put his regular season struggles in the rearview mirror if he, along with the Phillies, can go on another successful postseason run. Phillies manager Rob Thomson is on the record as saying he trusts the right-hander in big games. Tonight falls into the big games category.

After a Game 1 win over the Marlins last night, the Phillies have a chance to advance to the National League Division Series with a win tonight, where they’ll play the Atlanta Braves. Nola’s performance on the mound will likely have a huge impact on the outcome of the game like last year.

If Nola shines like Zack Wheeler did yesterday, it would not only help the Phillies, but could help change the narrative on his 2023 as a whole.

Must-read (or watch, or listen) Phillies content

Staying on the topic of Nola, Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer wrote about the right-hander and how he feels about this potentially being his final run with the team that drafted him, along with an adjustment he’s made on the mound.
Zack Wheeler was masterful in Game 1 against the Marlins last night. Here’s Phillies Nation’s Nathan Ackerman’s recap of the 4-1 Phillies win.
It was a rough game for Phillies third base coach Dusty Wathan. Phillies Nation’s Tim Kelly has more on Rob Thomson and Bryce Harper’s comments regarding some key decisions made by the Phillies’ third base coach.
From Phillies Nation’s Destiny Lugardo: On Johan Rojas’ incredible third inning at-bat and how the Wheeler to Alvarado plan worked.
Fox Sports’ Jake Mintz on Rhys Hoskins’ first pitch and why he was initially uncomfortable with the idea.
Matt Gelb of The Athletic wrote about Zack Wheeler’s excellent sweeper.
From the Phillies Nation staff: Who will be the unsung hero of the Wild Card Series?
Nick Castellanos explains the “ring” celebration.