The Philadelphia Phillies fell just short of reaching the World Series for the second consecutive year, despite Zack Wheeler going 3-0 with a 1.95 ERA across 27 2/3 postseason innings in 2023.
And just like that, Wheeler — who admitted in September that he feels like his time with the Phillies has flown by — is entering a contract year again.
Over the first four seasons of his five-year/$118 million deal, Wheeler has established himself as one of the better starters in franchise history. So while re-signing Aaron Nola — or acquiring another ace to pair with Wheeler in 2024 — is the No. 1 priority for the Phillies this offseason, one would think that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski would be hopeful to extend Wheeler’s contract beyond next season.
“Without getting into anything — because just we haven’t had these type of things [conversations] — we would hope to have Zack Wheeler in our organization for years to come,” Dombrowski said at his year-end press conference Thursday.
“He’s been tremendous since he’s been here, and we look at him as a real stalwart of our organization,” Dombrowski continued. “So we would hope that he would be here for a long time.”
Dombrowski wasn’t interested in publicly revealing whether the Phillies planned to initiate extension conversations with Al Goetz of Jets Sports Management, Wheeler’s agent.
“I really wouldn’t get into contract-type stuff in that regard,” Dombrowski said.
Since joining the Phillies in 2020, Wheeler is 43-25 with a 3.06 ERA and 2.90 FIP. His 629 1/3 innings over that period are fourth among all pitchers, trailing only Gerrit Cole, Sandy Alcántara and the aforementioned Nola. Meanwhile, FanGraphs says that Wheeler’s 19.3 WAR is top among all starting pitchers, with Corbin Burnes the next closest at 17.9.
Wheeler is due to make $23.5 million in 2023, the final year of his current contract. While it had its critics at the time the deal was consummated, Wheeler’s free-agent deal has turned into one of the most team-friendly contracts in MLB history. His next contract is unlikely to be as much of a bargain.
On one hand, Wheeler is 33, and as a power pitcher that’s a veteran of Tommy John surgery, there’s a chance that he hits a wall at any point, especially given the workload he’s had over the last three years.
On the other hand, if Wheeler continues to produce at this level in 2024, he may be inclined to test the open market again after the season. So there’s a very real possibility that if the Phillies let Wheeler’s contract year play out, his price will only increase. It may be worth the risk, but allowing Wheeler to enter 2024 without a new deal would indeed be a risk.
Prior to his age-37 season, Max Scherzer received a three-year/$130 million deal from the Mets in free agency. Wheeler maybe doesn’t have all the hardware that Scherzer does, but he’s been one of the five best pitchers in baseball for close to half a decade now and would be hitting free agency ahead of his age-35 season, two years younger than Scherzer was.
For Wheeler to forego a second chance to become a free agent, the starting point in extension conversations with the Phillies would probably have to be Scherzer’s deal. And it’s entirely possible that Wheeler would want an even lengthier commitment, or at least an attainable vesting option for a fourth season.
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