Categories: News

Aaron Nola rejects qualifying offer. What does that mean?

Aaron Nola is a free agent. (Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

Aaron Nola, as expected, has rejected a qualifying offer from the Phillies, per a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.

The qualifying offer, a one-year, $20.325 million contract for 2024, was offered to seven free agents: Nola, Blake Snell (Padres), Sonny Gray (Twins), Josh Hader (Padres), Cody Bellinger (Cubs), Matt Chapman (Blue Jays) and Shohei Ohtani (Angels). All rejected the offer.

If an opposing team signs Nola, they must surrender draft compensation. The quality of picks, the amount of picks and whether or not a team also has to surrender international bonus pool money depends on the club’s status as a revenue sharing recipient and whether or not they have exceeded the luxury tax, also known as the competitive balance tax, in 2023.

If the Phillies wish to sign one of the other six free agents with qualifying offers attached, they must surrender their second and fifth-highest draft selection along with one million dollars in international bonus pool money. If the Phillies sign two qualified free agents out of the six listed, they must surrender, in total, a second, third, fifth and sixth-round pick and one million in international bonus pool money.

The Phillies, Atlanta Braves, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Angels and Toronto Blue Jays are all slated to pay the luxury tax at the end of the calendar year for the 2023 season. That means all of these teams would need to surrender two draft selections and one million dollars in international bonus pool money to sign Nola.

That’s very important to keep in mind. A few of the teams listed above, including the Braves and Yankees, have expressed interest in Nola. The Braves have surrendered draft compensation in the past, most recently to sign Marcell Ozuna to a one-year deal in 2020. Atlanta is slated to be a first-time payer of the luxury tax and may resist signing Nola due to the steep penalties attached.

The Yankees surrendered two draft picks and one million dollars in international bonus pool money to sign Carlos Rodon last offseason. They could do it again for Cody Bellinger, but maybe not Nola. It’s more likely the Yankees heavily pursue pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, a star out of Japan who does not have a qualifying offer attached.

The Mets have not signed a free agent with a QO attached to him in the Steve Cohen era. They could break that streak if Ohtani has interest in coming to Queens, but it’s hard to see the retooling Mets giving up those valuable picks for anyone else. The Mets could also be in on Yamamoto.

If Nola signs with another team, the Phillies will recoup one draft pick in between the fourth and fifth rounds. That could make it easier for the Phillies to stomach giving up picks and bonus pool money to sign either Snell or Gray, who could replace Nola in the rotation, or Hader.

Nola rejecting the qualifying offer says nothing about his level of interest in returning to the Phillies. Free agents that are expected to sign contracts well above the total value of the QO almost always reject the offer.

He has stated multiple times that he wants to be back. The Phillies have said publicly that they are prioritizing Nola over other options.

Only time will tell if the Phillies and Nola eventually reach a deal.