Phillies Nation Roundtable: Aaron Nola contract predictions

After nine seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies, Aaron Nola is officially a free agent.

The Phillies have a five day exclusive negotiating window with Nola before other teams have a chance to speak with his camp.

He’s expected to be one of the most coveted free agents on the market. The Phillies say signing Nola is the priority, but other pitching needy big market clubs are expected to be in the bidding. The St. Louis Cardinals love Nola. The Chicago Cubs could look to spend big on the rotation. The Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves could all use frontline starting pitching.

He will get paid. Just how much and the amount of years he gets remains to be seen.

Here are a few contract predictions from Phillies Nation writers.

Tim Kelly — Editorial Director — 6-year, $192 million deal with Chicago Cubs ($32 million AAV)

Like when J.T. Realmuto reached free agency after the 2020 season, I think there’s about a 50/50 chance Nola remains with the Phillies. Ultimately, he’s probably going to go to whatever team offers him the most lucrative contract, as he’ll likely have a slew of contenders among his suitors. For whatever flaws he has, Nola’s durability since 2018 has been truly remarkable, and the Phillies will have a hard time replacing it if they lose him. But he had a 4.49 ERA last season and gave up a career-high 32 home runs last year, so it would be understandable if the Phillies have reservations about making this type of commitment.

Destiny Lugardo — Deputy Editorial Director — 9-year, $195 million deal with Philadelphia Phillies ($21.66 million AAV)

I feel pretty confident about two things. 1. The Phillies will re-sign Nola. 2. The contract will be drawn out like the Trea Turner deal to manipulate the luxury tax. Does that mean Nola will pitch for the Phillies for nine more seasons? Probably not. Is it a smart idea? No, but free agency is inherently irrational. The only other realistic alternatives on the market are Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jordan Montgomery since they won’t have a qualifying offer attached. Signing either Blake Snell or Sonny Gray would likely require the tax-paying Phillies to surrender a second round and fifth-round pick along with one million dollars in international bonus pool money. The Phillies want Nola and Nola wants to be a Phillie. Even if the Phillies wanted to go in other directions, the circumstances make looking beyond Nola difficult.

Nathan Ackerman — Staff Writer — 6-year, $168 million with Philadelphia Phillies ($28 million AAV)

The Phillies are too aware of just how valuable Nola’s durability has been over the last seven years. Andrew Painter’s health concerns, plus unpredictability around Mick Abel’s and Griff McGarry’s futures, will remind them even further of the stability Nola provides and motivate them not to let quality starting pitching — always hard to come by — walk. As for his production, the Phillies will bet that Nola is closer to the pitcher he was in 2022 than the pitcher he was in 2023 (though he’s certainly somewhere in between), and his general postseason success the last couple years is hard to overlook. In the end, the Phillies will value that combination of health and optimism enough to pay up.

Ty Daubert — Staff Writer — 6-year, $195 million with Philadelphia Phillies ($32.5 million AAV)

It might be closer to a coin flip whether Nola is back in Philadelphia in 2024 or not, but the Phillies still seem to be the best fit and the most likely team of any to employ the right-hander next season and beyond. The Phillies have shown a willingness to spend on “their guy” over the last several offseasons, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has pegged Nola as their priority. This deal may not reach the $200 million threshold, but Nola should see his durability rewarded this winter.

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