Categories: Phillies Nuggets with Tim Kelly

Could the Braves try to sign Aaron Nola away from Phillies?

Aaron Nola is a free agent. (John Jones/Icon Sportswire)

Aaron Nola may very well return to the Philadelphia Phillies this offseason, but he has no motivation to give managing partner John Middleton a “hometown discount.” We broke down six potential contenders who could be suitors for Nola in free agency yesterday, and those are hardly the only teams that make sense for one of the league’s most durable arms.

Perhaps the scariest possible suitor for Nola from the perspective of the Phillies could be the six-time defending NL East Champion Atlanta Braves. Last month, we wrote that the Braves are among the contending teams that make sense as possible suitors for Nola, and while there isn’t yet a concrete report linking him to the NL East-rivals, there are some notable voices now making similar suggestions.

(Editor’s Note: Since the publication of this article, there is now a direct report linking the Braves to Nola, with MLB.com‘s Jon Morosi saying that Atlanta and the St. Louis Cardinals are “among the teams showing early interest” in the righty.”)

David O’Brien — who covers the Braves for The Athletic — wrote over the weekend that if Atlanta is able to fill their left field hole with natural shortstop Vaughn Grissom, it could allow them to invest in a starting pitcher in free agency. Specifically, O’Brien pointed to the durability of Nola and his playoff success the last two years against the Braves as why he could be a fit in Atlanta. He even suggested that if the Braves had to decide between signing Nola this offseason and re-signing Max Fried after the 2024 season, the former has a longer track record of pitching at or around 200 innings every season.

Ken Rosenthal continued to discuss the fit on The Athletic Monday, noting that Nola has a strong relationship with Braves pitching coach Rick Kranitz. In 2016 and 2017, Kranitz was the bullpen coach for the Phillies, before serving as the pitching coach during the 2018 campaign, when Nola finished third in NL Cy Young Award voting. Rosenthal also opined that Nola — who is a Louisiana native and has typically pitched very well in warm weather — could want to pitch for a team in the south. (Nola has repeatedly said he hopes to remain with the Phillies.)

In the same way that the Phillies may be putting out there that they have interest in Blake Snell and Sonny Gray to squeeze Nola’s camp, the right-hander benefits from the possibility of his long-time employer thinking their biggest rivals may be a threat to sign him away. The Braves — even if they don’t end up making a serious push for Nola — probably wouldn’t mind driving up the price for the free-agent pitcher. Maybe he’ll price his way out of a range that the Phillies are comfortable paying. Or maybe the Phillies will meet his asking price, but it will be high enough that they maybe make one less other investment in their bullpen or bench this offseason.

But writing off the Braves altogether would be a mistake. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has signed so many star position players to team-friendly contracts that it opens up the possibility to splurge at the top of the market for another area of need. And a quality starting pitcher — specifically one that has a track record of staying healthy — is the biggest need for the Braves.

Over the last half decade, the Braves have overcome major injuries to starters such as Mike Foltynewicz, Cole Hamels, Michael Soroka, Huascar Ynoa, Kyle Wright and the aforementioned Fried and still made the playoffs. However, with the exception of their 2021 World Series title, the lack of reliable, top-of-the-rotation pitchers has caught up to the Braves in the postseason. It’s become glaring in back-to-back NLDS losses to the Phillies that the Braves are a team built better for the 162-game marathon of the regular season, than the sprint that is the postseason. Signing Nola would help to correct the problem for the Braves, while also weakening the team that’s eliminated them in each of the past two postseasons.

Whether the Braves will ultimately have the stomach to offer Nola between $150 and $200 million remains to be seen, but they are one of close to 10 teams who don’t wear red pinstripes for home games that make sense as possible landing spots for the 30-year-old. Retaining the longest-tenured Phillie isn’t going to be easy.