Aaron Nola’s seven-year contract with the Phillies likely took the club out of serious consideration for the top starting pitchers left on the free-agent market. Reports indicate they may still be in on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but it’s hard to see the Phillies beating out what figures to an extensive list of more desperate suitors for the three-time Sawamura Award winner.
Even though president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says the Phillies’ 2024 starting rotation is set, it’s not hard to imagine the Phillies at least being in the running for starters who might not command nine figures.
The pool of those pitchers is likely to grow by one this Thanksgiving weekend.
MLB.com‘s Mark Feinsand reported on Wednesday that Shōta Imanaga, the 30-year-old lefty who started Japan’s World Baseball Classic-winning finale, is expected to be posted by the Yokohama DeNA BayStars before Monday. If and when that takes place, Imanaga will began a 45-day window during which he can negotiate with MLB clubs.
Imanaga won’t command close to the type of contract that Yamamoto will; Tim Kelly of Phillies Nation and Just Baseball predicted the latter to earn $240 million over eight years and Imanaga $80 million over five. As MLB Trade Rumors points out, the team that signs Imanaga will also pay a release fee to the BayStars: 20% of the first $25 million, 17.5% of the next $25 million, 15% of the rest.
The expected contract gap is due partially to the obvious — Yamamoto is a much more highly-touted pitcher — but also to the fact that Imanaga is five years older. Still, he’s an appealing option himself: With over 1,000 innings under his belt, he has a career 3.18 ERA in the Nippon Professional Baseball Organization. That number was 2.80 this past season and 2.26 the year before.
Imanaga posted a 3.00 ERA in the WBC and started the final, working two innings and allowing one run on four hits while striking out two. (Two of those hits came from Phillies, with Trea Turner hitting his fifth WBC homer and J.T. Realmuto singling in the second.)
If Imanaga is posted on Thanksgiving, his 45-day window wouldn’t end until Jan. 6 — two days after Yamamoto’s would. Even if the Phillies are indeed in on Yamamoto but the right-hander signs elsewhere before Imanaga signs, that gives them time to fall back on the cheaper southpaw.
It’s all speculation at this point; there hasn’t been much linking the Phillies to Imanaga quite yet. But just like with Yamamoto, it’s worth doing their due diligence. Perhaps the price tag is low enough that the Nola commitment doesn’t take them out. And if the Phillies have a cost-effective opportunity to bolster the rotation even further, it’s hard not to see Dombrowski exploring it.
Must-read Phillies content
- Our Ty Daubert wrote about the terms and incentives in Nola’s big contract.
- Jayson Stark at The Athletic wrote about a few things to watch on the Hall of Fame ballot, including whether Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins might help elevate each other’s candidacy.
- Happy Thanksgiving, Phillies fans!
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