The Texas Rangers are one of the few franchises in baseball that’s been willing to spend as aggressively as the Philadelphia Phillies in free agency the last few offseasons, and they have no reason to abandon said strategy after it recently landed them on a parade float.
In fact, multiple unnamed general managers predicted to USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale that the defending World Series Champion Rangers will sign Aaron Nola in free agency.
“Bringing Jordan Montgomery back makes the most sense, but certainly Nola and his durability is quite attractive to the Rangers’ rotation, with several GMs predicting Nola will end up in Texas.”
The Rangers being interested in Nola actually makes quite a bit of sense. Since the start of the 2018 season, Nola is second only to Gerrit Cole with 1,065 1/3 innings pitched. For as many talented starters as the Rangers currently employ, manager Bruce Bochy would probably love to have someone as stable as Nola to anchor his rotation.
Postseason hero Nathan Eovaldi has only made more than 30 starts one time in his career, and the 34-year-old is entering a contract year. 39-year-old Max Scherzer remains very effective when on the mound, but he’s dealt with various injuries over the past few seasons, and will be pitching in a walk year himself in 2023. And two-time NL Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom underwent his second career Tommy John surgery in June of 2023, which cost him the rest of this past season and may very well put him out for all of 2024. deGrom is under contract through the 2027 season, but last made more than 30 starts in 2019.
It would be an ironic turn of events for Nola to become teammates with both deGrom and Scherzer. Arguably the best season of Nola’s career came in 2018, when he went 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA and 3.01 FIP across 212 1/3 innings pitched. Nola finished third in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2018, behind just deGrom and Scherzer, who were then pitching for the New York Mets and Washington Nationals, respectively.
There’s a case to be made that the Rangers should just re-sign the aforementioned Montgomery, who posted a 2.90 ERA across 31 postseason innings. Not only would the Rangers not have to give any draft compensation up to re-sign Montgomery, but because he was acquired in a midseason trade with the St. Louis Cardinals, he is ineligible for the qualifying offer and wouldn’t net Texas anything if he left in free agency.
It is a formality that Nola will receive and decline a one-year/$20.325 million qualifying offer from the Phillies, in search of a deal likely at or around $200 million in free agency. Because the Rangers paid the luxury tax in 2023, they would have to surrender a second-round pick, fifth-round pick and $1 million in international bonus pool money if they signed Nola. The Phillies, though, would only get back a compensatory pick after the fourth round if Nola left in free agency because they also exceeded what the league calls the competitive balance tax in 2023.
In any event, the Rangers appear to be a serious suitor for Nola, in addition to the St. Louis Cardinals. Other teams that make sense as possible landing spots for Nola are the Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles. So any thought that a down year from Nola in 2023 might make him easier and/or cheaper for the Phillies to re-sign increasingly seems misguided.
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