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Phillies extend $20.325 million qualifying offer to Aaron Nola

The Phillies have extended the qualifying offer to Aaron Nola. (Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

The Philadelphia Phillies have extended the $20.325 million qualifying offer to RHP Aaron Nola as he tests free agency for the first time in his career, Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports.

Rhys Hoskins — who missed the entire 2023 season after tearing his left ACL in Spring Training — did not receiver the qualifying offer, per Heyman.

Phillies Nation has confirmed that validity of Heyman’s report.

It was a formality the Phillies would give Nola the qualifying offer, and it’s just as much a procedural matter that he will decline it. While some potential free agents do accept the qualifying offer because it gives them a high salary for a season, Nola will easily top $20.325 million annually in free agency, likely on a contract that goes for at least six seasons.

A first-round pick by the Phillies out of LSU in 2014, Nola is 90-71 with a 3.72 ERA and 3.38 FIP in 235 career starts. The longest-tenured Phillie has indicated on multiple occasions that he would like to remain in red pinstripes, including after a crushing Game 7 NLCS defeat at the hands of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

“I hope so, yeah,” Nola said when asked if he envisions his career continuing in Philadelphia.

President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski made clear in his year-end press conference that the Phillies do hope to re-sign Nola, but acknowledged that after failing to reach a long-term deal in negotiations during Spring Training, nothing is guaranteed.

“I’d say he’s our priority to try and sign,” Dombrowski said. “Unfortunately, and I don’t mean this as a negative or positive, it’s just the reality — we didn’t sign him in Spring Training. We would have liked to have done that. We didn’t get it done. I can’t tell you that I feel 100% confident that we’re going to get it done, but we would like to sign him and we’ll be aggressive in trying to make that happen.”

USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale recently reported that Nola’s camp was targeting “an eight-year contract in excess of $200 million,” while the Phillies were more comfortable giving an extension that was “four or five years” long. If those parameters are indeed correct, that would be a large bridge to gap, even if each side eventually comes off their starting points in negotiations.

Nola did have a relatively disappointing contract year, as he surrendered a career-high 32 home runs, while also posting a 4.46 ERA and 4.03 FIP.

However, Nola still logged 193 2/3 innings in 2023. Despite a disappointing outing in Game 6 of the NLCS, Nola was largely excellent for the Phillies in the postseason, going 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA across 23 innings. And if you exclude two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani — who isn’t expected to pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery in October — it can be argued that Nola is the top available pitching free agent this offseason.

The St. Louis Cardinals have telegraphed their interest in Nola. “Several GMs” reportedly believe the Texas Rangers will covet his durability. The Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves are among the other contenders who, in theory, make sense as possible Nola suitors. So there really isn’t any reason for Nola’s camp to consider taking a hometown discount from the Phillies — he will likely have multiple World Series contenders willing to pay him top-dollar this offseason.

Because the Phillies crossed the luxury tax threshold in 2023, they would receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round in the 2024 MLB Draft if Nola left in free agency, assuming he does indeed decline the qualifying offer.