Categories: Analysis

Will J.T. Realmuto have a Hall of Fame case?

J.T. Realmuto is entering his sixth season with the Phillies. (John Adams/Icon Sportswire)

It’s National Baseball Hall of Fame voting season, with writers revealing their ballots and fans debating which candidates are worthy of enshrinement in 2024.

And while a number of former Phillies will have a shot at Cooperstown as a part of this ballot, this time of year is perfect to look ahead at future Hall of Fame elections and what current players could reach the 75% threshold in the Baseball Writers’ Association of America’s vote.

Two-time National League MVP Bryce Harper is already a likely shoo-in for Cooperstown, Trea Turner could be on his way there and Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola could have cases if they finish out their careers on a strong note. One of the most interesting potential cases on this current Philadelphia squad, however, would be catcher J.T. Realmuto — MLB’s former best backstop in a fairly weak-catching time frame.

Realmuto, 32, is a 10-year major-league veteran, starting his career in Miami and playing for the Phillies since 2019. He’s recorded 1,136 hits and 154 home runs, won three Silver Sluggers and two Gold Gloves, made three All-Star teams and amassed 33.3 WAR with a 112 OPS+ in his time as a big leaguer. Beginning in 2018, Realmuto separated himself from other backstops in the majors and earned the “best catcher in baseball” tag, outhitting his contemporaries with elite throwing and great framing at his best.

From 2018 to 2022, Realmuto posted 20.3 WAR — remember that 2020 was only a 60-game season — with an .814 OPS and 119 OPS+, firmly placing himself in the star-level category in terms of production. In his best season in 2022, he finished seventh in NL MVP voting after posting an .820 OPS and 130 OPS+ with 22 homers, 26 doubles and 21 stolen bases with a 6.5 WAR total.

During that stretch, Realmuto was dependable, durable and productive, more than any other catcher over the course of those five seasons. With catchers like Buster Posey, Jonathan Lucroy and Yasmani Grandal on the decline, Realmuto took center stage before the rises of younger catchers Will Smith and Adley Rustchman, who appear to have passed the Phillies’ longtime backstop this past year.

The issue for Realmuto’s future Hall of Fame candidacy is that, while he was the best catcher in the sport for that defined period and incredibly valuable, his overall play didn’t match up to the very best, cream-of-the-crop players in the majors. With his five-year peak, Realmuto likely needed to push for more MVPs in order to have a more competitive case for Cooperstown. Posey and Joe Mauer, players who debuted before Realmuto but had similarly shorter primes, won MVPs and were the top players in the game at their best; those two will make real noise on future ballots. Realmuto’s resume falls a bit short of that.

With a career WAR about 20 wins short of the average Hall of Fame catcher (56.3), Realmuto’s best path to Cooperstown would be to follow that of former Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina. Molina never peaked the way Realmuto did, but his 19 years of production — and lots of team success — will likely land him a plaque at the Hall. Of course, catchers don’t tend to age well, but Realmuto has already proven himself different than most catchers. He’s played at least 134 games in each of the last three seasons since turning 30 years old. Staying on the field and staying a contributor as he approaches 20 seasons in the bigs could help make a Hall of Fame case. Some additional team success to add to the postseason moments he’s already had certainly wouldn’t hurt either.

Still, it’s probably unlikely he can replicate the longevity of Molina, and that’s not really a knock. The Hall of Fame might be a long shot, but Realmuto will still go down as a Phillies great, with a retirement ceremony and a Wall of Fame induction coming at Citizens Bank Park down the line.