The Phillies may be in option hell in 2024

Every Spring Training, managers talk about how it takes close to every player on the 40-man roster — and often a few more that will be added throughout the season — for a team to make a deep playoff run.

The problem for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2024 is that very few players expected to be on the Opening Day 26-man roster have remaining minor league options, which may force president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and manager Rob Thomson to make some tough decisions throughout the campaign.

Obviously, any player who has accumulated more than five years of MLB service time cannot be optioned to the minor leagues without their consent. While RHP Brett Myers notably accepted a demotion to Triple-A during the 2008 season, it’s pretty uncommon for a veteran to agree to be sent to the minors.

If you want to call up another player not on the 40-man roster to replace the optioned player, either the demoted player or someone else on the 40-man roster needs to be designated for assignment and exposed to waivers. All 29 other teams then have a chance to claim the player who has been DFA’d. Even if the player clears waivers, they then get to choose between accepting being optioned to Triple-A or just becoming a free agent. If a player doesn’t have a clear path back to the majors in the near future, they will elect free agency and sign with an organization that presents a better chance to return to the top level of the sport sooner.

In addition to players who have accumulated five years of MLB service time, those who are out of options — meaning they have been optioned to the minors three or four times, depending on their individual case — also can’t be sent to Triple-A an additional time without being exposed to waivers.

All of this is very in the weeds, but important for understanding as organizations try to keep their rosters fresh over the course of a 162-game regular season, and in the case of the Phillies, probably the postseason.

So we’ve broken every player currently on the 40-man roster into one of five categories, to help understand the challenges the Phillies will face in 2024.

Category 1: Players With Five-Plus Years Of MLB Service Time Who Can’t Be Sent To Minors Without Their Consent And Probably Wouldn’t Consent In The Extremely Unlikely Event They Were Asked To

1. 1B Bryce Harper
2. DH/LF Kyle Schwarber
3. SS Trea Turner
4. RF Nick Castellanos
5. C J.T. Realmuto
6. RHP Zack Wheeler
7. RHP Aaron Nola
8. RHP Taijuan Walker
9. LHP José Alvarado
10. RHP Jeff Hoffman
11. RHP Seranthony Domínguez
12. LHP Matt Strahm

Category 2: Players With Less Than Five Years Of MLB Service Time Who Are Out Of Minor League Options

1. INF Edmundo Sosa
2. OF Cristian Pache
3. OF/1B Jake Cave
4. LHP Ranger Suárez
5. LHP Cristopher Sánchez
6. RHP Andrew Bellatti
7. RHP Dylan Covey

Category 3: Players With Remaining Minor League Options, But Like Are They Actually Gonna Be Optioned?

1. 3B Alec Bohm: two minor league options remaining
2. 2B Bryson Stott: three minor league options remaining
3. OF Brandon Marsh: two minor league options remaining
4. C Garrett Stubbs: one minor league option remaining
5. LHP Gregory Soto: one minor league option remaining

Between those three groups, the Phillies have 24 of their 26-man roster spots filled. It’s possible players like Pache or Bellatti could be traded, or maybe even the Phillies are willing to let Cave or Covey be exposed to waivers at some point. But even if all four have flaws, they are more valuable as organizational depth that they would be if you traded them for a warm body or let them go on waivers. That’s certainly the case for Pache, Bellatti and Cave. The problem is, none can be sent to the minors anymore.

And there’s another pair of players that the Phillies don’t want to block from being on the Major League roster if they impress in Spring Training.

Category 4: Players With Remaining Minor League Options That The Phillies Hope Are Key Contributors In 2024

1. CF Johan Rojas: two minor league options remaining
2. RHP Orion Kerkering: three minor league options remaining

Obviously, the best-case scenario for the Phillies is that Rojas and Kerkering — two home-grown players — develop into mainstays after some positive flashes in 2023. But if they do, that would mean 26 of 26 MLB roster spots would be accounted for with very little wiggle room. Stubbs isn’t going to be optioned to Triple-A, and if he was, it would just be for another catcher like Rafael Marchan. Could Soto be sent to Lehigh Valley? He has an option remaining, but that would be a pretty disastrous outcome for the two-time All-Star.

With so little wiggle room, our fifth group may have to get comfortable with the idea of spending the bulk of the Summer of 2024 in Allentown.

Category 5: Fringe Major Leaguers On 40-Man Roster With Remaining Minor League Options Likely Destined To Be At Triple-A Lehigh Valley

1. C Rafael Marchan: one minor league option remaining
2. 1B Darick Hall: one minor league option remaining
3. INF/OF Kody Clemens: one minor league option remaining
4. INF Rodolfo Castro: one minor league option remaining
5. INF/OF Weston Wilson: two minor league options remaining
6. OF Simón Muzziotti: one minor league option remaining
7. RHP Nick Nelson: one minor league option remaining
8. RHP Michael Mercado: three minor league options remaining
9. RHP Yunior Marte: one minor league option remaining
10. RHP Luis Ortiz: one minor league option remaining
11. RHP McKinley Moore: two minor league options remaining
12. RHP Connor Brogdon: one minor league option remaining

Only 38 of spots on the 40-man roster for the Phillies are currently filled. That leaves two spots if the Phillies want to add another veteran outfielder and/or relief pitcher, two things that still feel entirely possible. The problem with that is if you sign another veteran, that locks said player into being on the 26-man roster, and leaves you with one less player able to be optioned to Triple-A.

There will be injuries throughout the course of a season, which will open up the possibility for other promotions, at least on a temporary basis. But it will be particularly difficult to move out tired bullpen arms during the regular season if the Phillies are planning on carrying Bellatti and Covey. Perhaps that means one or both won’t still be in the organization by the time the regular season begins.

In terms of the starting rotation, the Phillies might need to ride out any struggles that Sánchez might have in 2024. He’s out of minor league options, but isn’t on track to become eligible for arbitration until 2026, so he could be a very cost-effective starter over the long-term. Sánchez posted a 3.44 ERA across 99 1/3 regular season innings for the Phillies last year, stabilizing the back-end of their rotation. If he struggles, the Phillies could consider moving him to the bullpen, but that would be another player entrenched to a big league spot in the arm barn that couldn’t be shuffled out for a fresh arm.

From a depth perspective, the Phillies aren’t a very attractive team to sign a minor-league deal with an invite to Spring Training with right now. The starting rotation seems set. If Rojas impresses in Spring Training this season, he’ll be the Opening Day center fielder and there won’t be a ton of wiggle room on the bench should the Phillies indeed carry Sosa, Cave and Pache.

In early January, this may not seem like something worthy of a deep dive. But the lack of flexibility the Phillies seem to have with options — or without them, as the case may be — will likely be a major storyline in 2024.

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