The Philadelphia Phillies will welcome the division-rival Atlanta Braves to Citizens Bank Park on Thursday, March 28 as they kick off the 2024 season. Here’s our first look at what manager Rob Thomson‘s lineup might look like to open the season.
No. 1: Trea Turner, SS
The bizarre first season that Turner had in Philadelphia — where a standing ovation at home appeared to be the difference between a .687 OPS before the All-Star Break and a .902 mark after the midsummer classic — has been well documented. Thomson may give him a chance to lead off to open up the season as he did in 2023, but the guess here is that he’ll end up primarily hitting in the second spot.
No. 2: Kyle Schwarber, DH
There will be plenty of time to have the debate about Schwarber leading off, because he’ll probably end up being the primary leadoff hitter again in 2024. But after two years of being asked relentlessly about Schwarber as a leadoff hitter, Thomson may hope to push that debate off a bit. Schwarber may be a rough watch when he’s slumping, but he has 93 home runs in two seasons with the Phillies, so his signing has been a massive success.
No. 3: Nick Castellanos, RF
It’s fair to assume that Castellanos wasn’t particularly thrilled with being moved towards the bottom of the lineup down the stretch of the regular season not long after representing the Phillies in the All-Star Game. So Thomson will likely start the year out with Castellanos hitting higher, but as the postseason showed, the two-time All-Star can go ice-cold in a hurry, at which point he may be moved down again.
No. 4: Bryce Harper, 1B
One of the issues with having Turner lead off is that a lefty then hits second, and unless that’s Harper, you would have consecutive left-handed hitters second and third in your lineup. So the trade-off of Turner hitting above Schwarber may be that Harper doesn’t always bat in the first inning. And that may be the best argument for Schwarber leading off.
No. 5: Alec Bohm, 3B
Bohm actually did homer in Game 7 of the NLCS, but he struggled for a bulk of the playoffs while the rest of his teammates were hot. It was a surprising development after a regular season where Bohm was a run-producing machine, hitting a staggering .344 with runners in scoring position and posting 97 RBIs. Bohm hit a career-high 20 home runs in 2023. It still feels like the best version of him will be someone that hits 27-32 home runs a season.
No. 6: Bryson Stott, 2B
There’s definitely an argument to be made for Stott leading off, given his world-class ability to foul balls off and that he’s left-handed. However, he hit just .263 out of the top spot in the lineup in 198 at-bats during his breakout season of 2023. The bulk of the former first-round pick’s production came hitting sixth, a spot in the lineup where Stott posted a .331 batting average in 236 at-bats.
No. 7: J.T. Realmuto, C
This may feel low given Realmuto’s reputation, but if Castellanos is going to hit higher in the lineup, another notable right-handed hitter will have to hit lower. Realmuto is coming off of his worst offensive season as a Phillie, as he hit .252 with a .762 OPS. He’s still one of the best catchers in the sport, but as he ages, it might make more sense for the three-time Silver Slugger Award winner to carry less of the load offensively.
No. 8: Brandon Marsh, LF
Marsh still strikes out too much for his own good — he had 144 a season ago — but his first full season with the Phillies was very productive nonetheless. Still only 26, Marsh walked 59 times, posted an .829 OPS and led the Phillies with six triples. In most other lineups he would be hitting higher than eighth.
No. 9: Johan Rojas, CF
Rojas’ .302 batting average during the regular season wasn’t sustainable, given that he had a .410 batting average on balls in play, when the league average is more than 100 points lower. He was exposed offensively in the postseason, when he hit .093 with 15 strikeouts in 43 at-bats. Rojas may be the best defender in all of baseball, but the Phillies aren’t guaranteeing that he won’t open 2024 at Triple-A to get more seasoning at the plate.
The Phillies could still sign a free agent outfielder, either to play in center field to open the season or to play in left field and have Marsh play center. Cristian Pache is also another internal option, but has a similar profile to Rojas as an elite defender with offensive shortcomings.
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