The Phillies’ lack of activity is understandable, but frustrating
It’s been a strange offseason for the Phillies. With the team coming up one game short of back-to-back World Series appearances, you’d think the front office would aggressively pursue more upgrades to the roster.
It has not been an offseason full of transactions, but a lot has transpired in the past few months. The Phillies named Bryce Harper the team’s everyday first baseman, saying goodbye to Rhys Hoskins. The top priority was to re-sign Aaron Nola and they did so before Thanksgiving. They made a run at top Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, signaling a willingness to be more aggressive in the international free agent market. There were even some credible rumblings of the team exploring a Nick Castellanos trade. Rob Thomson signed a one-year extension.
There were headlines but very few moves. Some of the Phillies’ inactivity has been frustrating, but some of it can be justified.
The Phillies have an everyday player at just about every position. There was some talk earlier in the offseason about addressing the swing-and-miss issues in the lineup, hence why Castellanos’ name was floated in talks. But it takes two to make a deal and there wasn’t much interest in Castellanos and the $60 million left on his contract. Instead, the Phillies will look to improve internally through two new additions, Dustin Lind and Rafael Pena, on the coaching staff.
The team could still look to add a versatile outfielder as a Plan B if center fielder Johan Rojas isn’t ready to start the year in the big leagues. But they face challenges within the free agent outfield market. They can’t guarantee everyday at-bats to any of the top outfielders left on the market, so they’re left to wait and see whose market craters. Or they could get creative and make a trade. The team acquired Cristian Pache a day before the season opener last year. Maybe the Phillies explore a more high profile trade this time around.
The most valid critique of the Phillies’ sleepy offseason is the lack of urgency to upgrade the bullpen. They could use another backend right-handed reliever and as we get closer to pitchers and catchers reporting, more and more viable options are falling off the board. Phil Maton is reportedly close to a deal with the Rays. Robert Stephenson, a player the Phillies had interest in, signed a three-year deal with the Angels. Former Phillies closer Héctor Neris signed a one-year, $9 million deal with the Cubs. The Phillies and Jordan Hicks reportedly had mutual interest in a deal, according to Matt Gelb of The Athletic, but Hicks secured a $44 million contract with the Giants along with the chance to be a starting pitcher.
There’s a tradeoff the Phillies must consider when shopping in the reliever market. Teams like to have at least two bullpen spots reserved for pitchers with minor league options, meaning they can be sent up and down to the minor leagues during the year without being subject to waivers. The current Phillies bullpen is stacked with good relievers who are out of minor league options. José Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez, Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm can’t and won’t be sent down. Gregory Soto still has a minor league option left, but the Phillies hope they never have to use it. Orion Kerkering has options, but he’s expected to be a huge part of the bullpen and sending him back-and-forth between Lehigh Valley and Philadelphia might hinder his development.
A free agent signing would presumably take up the seventh spot in the bullpen. The eighth and final spot could go to Andrew Bellatti or Connor Brogdon, two pitchers without minor league options or somebody else on the 40-man roster who can move back-and-forth in the event the Phillies move on from both Bellatti and Brogdon. Yes, the Phillies’ back end bullpen depth would be better if the team made another addition, but they would also be in an uncomfortable spot if they went into the season with little bullpen flexibility. Optionality isn’t sexy, but it’s necessary when the team needs a fresh arm from the minors when three relievers are unavailable after working two days in a row.
This is just a long way of saying that the Phillies will likely have to make more extensive bullpen acquisitions during the season. The Phillies can’t rely on finding a Hoffman-like stud on a minor league deal every year, but they have a track record of hitting on low-cost moves, with the Alvarado trade and Hoffman signing being the best examples. This may be a year where the Phillies are more likely to play with what they have and look for improvements on the waiver wire or at the trade deadline.
The Phillies bullpen situation this offseason could have been a lot worse if it wasn’t for a proactive move made during spring training last year. Alvarado was scheduled to become a free agent after 2023, but the Phillies signed him to a three-year, $22 million extension that keeps him in Philadelphia through 2026. The deal was signed in February, but it should be considered the second-biggest move of the Phillies offseason.
Without Alvarado under contract, the Phillies would have went into the offseason needing to replace their best reliever. There’s a huge difference between needing to complement Alvarado versus needing to replace him.
It’s all about the timing of these moves and that’s why this offseason is so boring. The Nola deal was one of the first signings of the offseason and then — nothing. The next major league signing from the Phillies came more than two months later with starter Kolby Allard agreeing to a one million dollar deal.
It’s a different pace from the typical Dombrowski offseason. He re-signed J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius in January and February of 2021. Kyle Schwarber and Castellanos were signed to huge deals following the end of the lockout in 2022. The Phillies signed Trea Turner, Taijuan Walker and Matt Strahm all in a span of a few weeks in December 2023.
The “let Dombrowski cook” crowd has been throughly disappointed so far. To be fair, there aren’t a lot of ingredients for Dombrowski to cook with. This year’s free agent class has some interesting names at the top and not much else. Markets of years past have had considerably more depth and the lack of free agent activity around the league is a direct result of this issue.
Only one position player outside of Shohei Ohtani, Jung-Hoo Lee, has signed a deal worth over $50 million. Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger are the only position players remaining who are expected to sign for over $50 million. Ten position players signed for over $50 million last offseason.
Add in the lack of clarity surrounding television revenue for almost half of the league and Scott Boras representing all of the top remaining unsigned free agents and it makes sense why this offseason is a slow burn.
But no matter what, the Phillies are going to have to answer for why they have done next to nothing to build upon last year’s talented roster. The external factors behind the lack of activity make sense, but they’ll seem like excuses to a fanbase that feels uneasy about the idea of running it back with the same team that couldn’t beat the Diamondbacks in the NLCS.
Maybe the best solution to this is for the Phillies to do something, anything to relieve everyone’s collective boredom. It doesn’t even have to be a good. Something feels like better than nothing.
Or we could all just shut our eyes and wait for Feb. 14 to get here.
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