We’re not saying that there is a 0% chance that the Philadelphia Phillies emerge as a surprise suitor for either LHP Jordan Montgomery or CF/1B Cody Bellinger the longer the two remain on the free-agent market, but don’t hold your breath that either of the two end up wearing red pinstripes in 2024.
Sunday morning, USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale injected life into a hot stove that’s largely been dormant for the Phillies since they re-signed RHP Aaron Nola in mid-November. In his weekly notebook column, Nightengale wrote that “several executives think the Phillies could be a sleeper for one of the remaining marquee free agents in Montgomery or Bellinger.”
A few executives may very well have opined that to Nightengale, but it’s worth considering what their motivations in doing so may be. Without knowing the identity of the executives, it’s entirely possible that they are employed by teams seen as suitors for Montgomery and/or Bellinger, but either know they haven’t been given the financial blessing from their ownership groups to spend on either one, or they themselves have reservations about making a long-term investment in either free agent. Trying to speak the Phillies into existence may not only put pressure on Philadelphia to be a late entrant in either sweepstakes, but it may soften the blow for fanbases who currently believe their teams will end up with Montgomery and/or Bellinger when that doesn’t ultimately happen.
Also, while Nightengale’s first paragraph is the one that’s been clipped and shared across social media Sunday morning, he added a qualifier right below it: “Yet, unless their price-tags drop, the Phillies plan to remain patient.”
Additionally, Montgomery and Bellinger are both represented by Scott Boras. Make of that what you will, but it’s quite the coincidence.
Here’s what we know: Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported in January that “the Phillies are not, barring an unforeseen market collapse, interested in Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery.” (Snell, for the record, is also a Boras client.)
Could the market for either left-handed pitcher crater in the coming weeks? Maybe, but it’s not uncommon for Boras clients to wait into Spring Training to sign major deals. There are a few examples in recent history of Boras clients signing with the Phillies in Clearwater. The most notable, of course, is Bryce Harper waiting until Feb. 28 to sign a 13-year/$330 million deal with the Phillies prior to the 2019 season. Harper and Boras may have sacrificed some average-annual value to get 13 years, but even after over 100 days as a free agent, there wasn’t any panic from the most powerful agent in the sport. Harper didn’t have to settle for a prove-it deal.
Granted, Snell and Montgomery aren’t Harper. But Snell, for whatever flaws he has, is a two-time Cy Young Award winner. Montgomery just helped pitch the Rangers to the World Series. Maybe either will eventually take a deal with some similarities to the one the Phillies signed Jake Arrieta (also a Boras client) to on March 11, 2018. The pact was a three-year/$75 million deal, but included the chance for Arrieta to opt out after two seasons and also had club options for fourth and fifth seasons. We’re not saying Snell or Montgomery will sign for three years, but if they opened the offseason thinking they were going to get seven years, maybe settling will look like taking a five-year deal with multiple player opt-outs available and attainable vesting options for extra years at the end of the deal.
Bellinger would probably fall into the same category. Back in November, I projected on Just Baseball that the former NL MVP would get an eight-year/$200 million deal. MLB Trade Rumors went even more bold, predicting a 12-year/$264 million deal. At this juncture of the offseason, he may have to settle relative to those two predictions. But settling doesn’t mean taking a one-year/$23.5 million deal like Teoscar Hernández did with the Los Angeles Dodgers. It probably means signing for six years on a deal with an early opt-out clause available.
It’s not that the Phillies shouldn’t continue to monitor the markets of Montgomery and Bellinger (and, for that matter, Snell), but just because they are free agents this deep into the offseason doesn’t mean they’re close to throwing their hands up and taking a team-friendly contract. This isn’t Boras’ first rodeo, and it’s not the first time the Phillies have been conveniently linked to one of his clients.
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