Categories: Phillies Nuggets with Tim Kelly

Dombrowski says ‘likely yes, definitively no’ when asked if Johan Rojas will be Phillies’ Opening Day CF

What will Johan Rojas’ role with the 2024 Phillies be? (Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

Philadelphia Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski started the offseason by saying that the team didn’t plan to “anoint” Johan Rojas the Opening Day center fielder for 2024, acknowledging that while they love his speed and defense, he didn’t deliver enough offensive output in the postseason.

However, the team’s actions this offseason — or lack thereof, in terms of adding a veteran outfielder that could theoretically beat Rojas out for a starting outfield job — suggest that while the Phillies aren’t going to guarantee a spot on the Opening Day roster to the 23-year-old, they do believe he’ll ultimately earn it.

In fact, Dombrowski was very candid Wednesday when asked whether he believes it’s likely that Rojas starts on Opening Day.

“Likely yes. Definitively no,” Dombrowski said to Joe DeCamara and Jon Ritchie on SportsRadio 94 WIP. “So I think the answer would be yes, we saw enough in the last couple months of August and September that we really like what we saw. I’ve talked to our hitting people at length about his progress over the winter time — he’s worked extremely hard, he’s made adjustments that he needs to make.

“I’m not saying he’s going to come up and hit .300 with 20 home runs right off the bat, but I think he can do enough offensively and contribute from an offensive perspective,” Dombrowski continued. “And when you add his speed in there and his defense, all of a sudden, he becomes a real plus for us. So yes, I do think he will be up, but he has to earn that, we’re not just gonna give it to him.”

It wouldn’t be hyperbolic to say that Rojas might be the best defender in baseball at any position, given that he posted 15 defensive runs saved and six outs above average in just 392 innings in center field for the Phillies a year ago. While Brandon Marsh is generally proficient in center field, he’s even better in left field, and having Rojas in center field allows for that arrangement to take place.

The defensive prowess of Rojas is why manager Rob Thomson admitted earlier this offseason that he and the Phillies are hoping Rojas wins the starting center field job in Spring Training.

“Well, it will all depend on Rojas,” Thomson said of the outfield alignment on The Mike Missanelli Podcast. “I’m hoping that Rojas has a good spring with the bat and he wins that job, because he changes the game defensively for sure. But we haven’t given him that spot, he’s gotta earn it. And if it looks like he’s struggling, then he needs more at-bats [in the minors]. And then Marsh would move over into center field and we still have [Jake] Cave and [Cristian] Pache for left.”

Ultimately, though, the Phillies have committed to doing what’s best for Rojas’ long-term development.

In 59 regular-season games for the Phillies a year ago, Rojas more than held his own, hitting .302 with 23 RBIs. However, when you dig a little deeper, there were some red flags. Rojas’ batting average on balls in play was .410, which was unsustainable when you consider that the league average is around .300.

There also wasn’t a ton of offensive value outside of when he was hitting singles, as evidenced by Rojas walking just five times.

Rojas was exposed offensively in the playoffs, recording just four hits in 43 at-bats. He walked only one time, and was struck out on 15 occasions in the postseason. For most of the team’s playoff run, it was like they had a pitcher hitting out of the final spot in the lineup.

Rojas is toolsy, so it feels like there should be more upside to tap into offensively. The question is whether enough improvement has been made to his approach at the plate in one offseason to justify him beginning the season with the Phillies, rather than getting at-bats in a lower pressure situation like Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Soon, we’ll begin to get an answer.