Categories: Phillies Nuggets with Tim Kelly

Zack Wheeler, Phillies would both be taking on risk in signing extension now

Zack Wheeler can become a free agent after the 2024 season. (Icon Sportswire)

All indications — whether from local or national insiders — appear to be the the Philadelphia Phillies are optimistic about reaching a long-term extension with RHP Zack Wheeler before he begins what would be a contract year.

Heck, when asked in October about the possibility of keeping Wheeler beyond 2024, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was very candid about how the organization views the power pitcher.

“Without getting into anything — because just we haven’t had these type of things [conversations] — we would hope to have Zack Wheeler in our organization for years to come,” Dombrowski said at his year-end press conference.

“He’s been tremendous since he’s been here, and we look at him as a real stalwart of our organization,” Dombrowski continued. “So we would hope that he would be here for a long time.”

At the same time, there was optimism both from the Phillies and RHP Aaron Nola that a long-term extension could be reached prior to his contract year last spring. Ultimately, a pact never came together, and Nola tested free agency. The Phillies wound up bringing Nola back on a seven-year/$172 million deal that was likely much larger than they would have offered in Spring Training a year ago.

Hall of Famer Jayson Stark said in an appearance on 97.5 The Fanatic in December that the Phillies “are more committed to re-signing Wheeler than they were Nola,” ultimately predicting a deal will get done because the righty has enjoyed his time in Philadelphia so much. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic echoed Stark the predictions about a deal getting done last week, saying it “is simply going to happen.”

It’s pretty clear why there would be mutual interest in an extension for both sides. Since joining the Phillies on a five-year/$118 million deal in advance of the 2020 season, Wheeler has a 3.06 ERA, 2.90 FIP and league-leading 19.3 WAR across 629 1/3 innings pitched. From Wheeler’s perspective, the Phillies have played in the NLCS in consecutive years, appearing in the World Series in 2022. The Phillies are an extremely-functional organization, especially when compared to the Wilpon-owned New York Mets, the team Wheeler spent the first five seasons of his career with.

And we’re not saying that an extension isn’t in the best interests of both sides right now. Wheeler saw Nola get asked questions about his future with the team all year in 2023, and would probably like to avoid having that be his reality in 2024. Obviously, the Phillies don’t want to lose one of the best pitchers in baseball. But it’s at least pointing out that an extension now is hardly risk-free for both sides.

For Wheeler, he’ll almost certainly be leaving money on the table if he agrees to an extension this spring.

Nola posted a 4.46 ERA and surrendered a career-high 32 home runs in his contract year. But he still landed a tremendous deal from the Phillies after briefly testing the open market, because seemingly every contender was interested in his durability. If all things are equal, Wheeler is better pitcher than Nola, and since joining the Phillies he’s been very reliable. Wheeler has logged 629 1/3 innings since the start of the 2020 season, which trails only Gerrit Cole, Sandy Alcántara and Nola over that period. If he pitches at a Cy Young-level in his contract year — which Nola didn’t — there would be teams clamoring for Wheeler in free agency next offseason.

The only thing working against Wheeler in free agency, if he has another big year in 2024, would be that he’ll be entering his age-35 season. As Phillies Nation‘s Destiny Lugardo noted lasted week, he wouldn’t be looking at matching Nola in terms of years in free agency. But still, Max Scherzer landed a three-year/$130 million deal with the Mets before the 2022 season, turning 37 in his first year of that pact. Even as he approaches his mid-30s, Wheeler could ask the Phillies for a four-year deal right now. With another big year and other suitors at the table, it’s not out of the question he could get a five-year deal in free agency next offseason, or at least a fifth-year option of some kind. Certainly, four seasons would be guaranteed, and the $43.3 million average annual value Scherzer signed for a few winters ago might be attainable.

Suffice it to say, the Phillies are probably not going to be willing to offer Wheeler a five-year/$216.5 million deal right now. If he and his representation at Jet Sports Management are interested in fighting for every possible penny, his best strategy would be to play out his contract year and test free agency next offseason.

Of course, there is a flip side of the argument for the Phillies. It will probably cost them more money and years next offseason to re-sign Wheeler in free agency, but there wouldn’t be any protection for the Phillies if they sign him to a long-term deal right now and then he hits a wall in 2024. Wheeler is a veteran of Tommy John surgery, who has logged a ton of innings with the Phillies between the regular and post seasons. He’ll turn 34 in May, and the Phillies won’t get a mulligan on an extension with Wheeler if he has a noticeable velocity drop and/or gets injured in his 10th MLB season.

If the Phillies let the final year of Wheeler’s contract play out, they may end up having to give him a larger deal to retain his services, but there would be more certainty about what he’ll look like in the first year of a new deal than there would be if he’s extended in the coming weeks. If Wheeler gets injured in 2024 or there is a concerning dip in performance, the Phillies could either sign him to a smaller deal next winter, or pivot to any of the other arms that could be available in what projects to be an excellent free-agent pitching class, such as Corbin Burnes, Walker Buehler, Max Fried and Shane Bieber.

The guess here is that Wheeler and the Phillies will ultimately reach a long-term agreement in advance of the 2024 season. Wheeler’s wife, Dominique, is from New Jersey and proximity to there appeared to play a part in his decision to sign with the Phillies after the 2019 season. The couple has since had two kids, and announced during the 2023 postseason run that they are expecting a third child. One would think that’s only strengthened their desire to remain close to family. And despite whatever risks there may in investing in a power pitcher approaching his mid-30s, Wheeler has become one of the better pitchers in franchise history. It wouldn’t feel right if he finishes his career in another uniform.

But make no mistake, both sides will be taking on risk if they do agree to a long-term deal before the 2024 season begins.