Categories: Rumors

What a Zack Wheeler extension could look like

Zack Wheeler is entering the final year of a five-year deal with the Phillies. (Cheryl Pursell/Phillies Nation)

If there’s one big move the Phillies can realistically make this offseason, it is likely a Zack Wheeler extension.

The Phillies are looking to keep their ace in Philadelphia for the rest of his career, but extending Wheeler won’t come cheap. There’s a very good chance Wheeler will become the first Phillie to make at least $30 million per season if a deal gets done.

Pondering Wheeler’s value is a fascinating exercise. He’s one of the ten best starting pitchers in the sport. Only three other pitchers, Gerrit Cole, Aaron Nola and Jose Berrios, have thrown more innings than Wheeler since the start of the 2018 season. Only Ranger Suárez has a lower postseason ERA among pitchers over the last two seasons (min. 30 innings).

Wheeler’s 3.06 regular season ERA is the sixth-lowest among Phillies pitchers in the expansion era who have thrown at least 600 innings with the team. Wheeler has been everything the Phillies could have hoped for through the first four years of his deal. All he is missing on his resume is a championship ring.

Wheeler will be entering his age 35 season in the first year of a new deal, assuming the contract he signs begins in 2025. Any deal comes with an understanding that the Phillies aren’t getting an absurd bargain the second time around.

But it’s quite telling that the Phillies are adamant about getting a deal done sooner rather than later. If the team had major concerns about Wheeler’s aging curve, the Phillies would likely wait things out and play in the loaded top tier starting pitching market next year, which is expected to include Wheeler, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Walker Buehler, Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer.

They have identified Wheeler as “their guy” and rightfully so. The Phillies have seen Wheeler evolve from a flame thrower with No. 2 potential to a jack of all trades ace who shines in October. If there is reason to believe that Wheeler has multiple peak years left and a strong chance to carry on as an above average starting pitcher late into his 30s, it’s a deal the Phillies should make.

The bigger question is how long should the Phillies commit to Wheeler and how much is enough to entice Wheeler’s camp to forgo free agency.

There is interest in both sides finding common ground in the coming weeks, according to a recent report from Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Ken Rosenthal confidently predicted on Foul Territory that a deal will eventually get done.

That’s good news for fans who desperately want Wheeler to remain in Philly beyond 2024. Finding that common ground could be tough, but there are a few extensions signed in the last few years that both sides could use as a reference point.

Yu Darvish’s deal with San Diego is one of them. Prior to the 2023 season, Darvish and the Padres agreed to a six-year, $108 million extension that runs through his age 41 season. Darvish signed the deal coming off of a strong 2022, where he posted a 3.10 ERA in 30 starts in his age 35 season.

The deal was stretched out to six years to lower Darvish’s average annual value to $18 million. The Phillies could go back to the well and sign another prolonged deal to lower their luxury tax bill, but doing so for a 35-year-old Wheeler may be pushing that strategy to its limits when Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and Aaron Nola are already signed into their late 30s.

The Phillies, however, would probably sign off on a $108 million deal for Wheeler in a heartbeat, so it’s very likely the total value of the actual deal is higher. Darvish, like Wheeler, was a year away from free agency, but Darvish signed his deal heading into his age 36 season, a year older than what Wheeler will be in the first year of his new deal. Both are among the top starting pitchers in the game and have similar career numbers, but Wheeler has a higher ceiling. A contract that reflects that plus market inflation could be good for both sides.

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At the same time, Wheeler’s side has the chance to dig in and secure a much more lucrative deal. There’s a reasonable case to be made that Wheeler should get more than his teammate Nola, who signed for seven years and $172 million as a free agent this offseason.

Nola (30) has the obvious age advantage over Wheeler (33). A seven-year pact for Wheeler would be crazy, but a total guarantee that’s close to Nola’s isn’t. Both have similar mileage on their respective arms heading into free agency. Nola entered the market with 1,422 career innings pitched. Wheeler is at 1,378 innings entering this season.

Missing the 2015 and 2016 seasons following Tommy John surgery seemed devastating at the time for Wheeler, but the lost time now works in his favor. He posted two healthy seasons with the Mets at the right time to secure his first big deal with Philadelphia. His relatively clean injury history with the Phillies along with his overall innings backlog make the prospect of signing Wheeler to another long-term deal less daunting.

Age isn’t on Wheeler’s side, but Wheeler has been better than Nola through four years in Philly. Wheeler’s 3.06 ERA since 2020 beats Nola’s 4.00 ERA. Wheeler has also been the better postseason pitcher of the two. There’s a reason why Nola told our own Tim Kelly that Wheeler should be the Opening Day starter over him.

If Wheeler tries to match or exceed Nola’s deal, it’s more likely he ends up on the free agent market next offseason. If both sides are motivated to get a deal done now, then it could be wise to find middle ground between the Darvish and Nola deals.

That number comes out to $140 million. The Phillies could stretch the deal to five years to get Wheeler’s average annual value to $28 million, exceeding Turner’s team record $27.27 million AAV. Or they could keep it shorter at four years and $35 million per year, with Wheeler becoming the seventh starting pitcher in the league to earn $30 million annually.

No matter what, it’s going to cost a ton to keep Wheeler in red pinstripes. But if he’s anything close to what he has been over the last four years, it would be worth it for the Phillies.