Categories: Phillies Nuggets with Tim Kelly

Phillies Nuggets: Opening Day lineup projection 3.0

J.T. Realmuto at Spring Training on March 8, 2024. (Grace Del Pizzo/Phillies Nation)

The Philadelphia Phillies will welcome the division-rival Atlanta Braves to Citizens Bank Park on Thursday, March 28 as they kick off the 2024 season. Here’s our third look at what manager Rob Thomson‘s lineup might look like to open the season.

No. 1: Kyle Schwarber, DH

This is happening, so prepare accordingly. The reality is the Phillies reached the World Series in 2022 and Game 7 of the NLCS in 2023 with Schwarber leading off. Even if Schwarber isn’t the prototypical leadoff hitter, the Phillies have won a ton with him hitting first in the lineup. It can’t be that bad.

No. 2: Trea Turner, SS

Turner hit second in the lineup 113 times a season ago, with Thomson riding things out for quite a while when he was struggling in the first half. With four left-handed hitters in the lineup — and a desire to assure Bryce Harper will bat in the first inning every game — it makes more sense to either have Schwarber or Bryson Stott lead off. But Turner is capable of leading off, and his speed makes him an ideal person to have on base before the heart of the order comes up.

No. 3: Bryce Harper, 1B

Despite a power outage when he initially returned from Tommy John surgery, Harper still managed to hit .293 with 21 home runs, 72 RBIs and a .900 OPS in 126 games a season ago. The seven-time All-Star posted one defensive run saved in 303 innings at first base, a position he learned during the season while continuing to rehab from Tommy John surgery and initially DHing. Harper should improve during his first full season at first base, and could be an NL MVP candidate if he’s able to have a full season for the first time since 2021, when he won the honor for the second time in his career.

No. 4: J.T. Realmuto, C

Certainly, arguments can be made for others hitting cleanup — namely, Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos — but this is where Realmuto has been penciled in during most of his Spring Training games. The version of Realmuto that posted a .949 OPS during the second half of the 2022 season is certainly qualified to be a cleanup hitter. However, Realmuto hit just .205 with a .611 OPS last year with runners in scoring position, not ideal for someone hitting fourth in your lineup. As he prepares for his age-33 season, there’s definitely a case to be made for having the three-time Silver Slugger Award winner hit a bit lower in such a loaded lineup.

No. 5: Bryson Stott, 2B

Stott actually hit .357 in the six spot a year ago, so based on that maybe he should hit there again. He provides less pop than the prototypical No. 5 hitter, but Stott hit fifth more often than not late in the 2023 regular season, and exclusively in the playoffs. Stott has been back in the No. 5 spot quite a few times this spring, and when you consider he puts the ball in play consistently, he does make sense as a hitter you would want to come up with runners in scoring position.

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No. 6: Alec Bohm, 3B

Bohm got into a funk last postseason, and hit just .239 in the playoff run. But while he did ground into an NL-leading 23 double plays, Bohm also hit .344 with runners in scoring position a season ago. As noted above, there’s an argument for having him hit cleanup, particularly if he builds off his career-high 20 home runs a season ago. But he should also get plenty of chances to produce runs in this spot as well.

No. 7: Nick Castellanos, RF

As someone who has been an All-Star twice in the last three seasons, Castellanos would probably prefer to hit higher than this. If Castellanos is hitting like he did in the NLDS against the Atlanta Braves a season ago — when he homered four times in the last two games — he is the best option to hit behind Harper. But Castellanos then struck out 11 times over seven games against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLCS, so as quickly as he can get scalding hot, his bat can go ice-cold. At 32 years old, Castellanos probably isn’t going to change at this point in his career. He’s an extremely streaky player.

No. 8: Brandon Marsh, LF

Marsh is back from the arthroscopic left knee surgery

he had in mid-February, and should be good to go on Opening Day. Whether the Braves go with Max Fried or Spencer Strider on Opening Day, expect Marsh to be in the lineup. However, if it’s the right-handed Strider on Opening Day and the left-handed Fried in the second game, will Thomson start Whit Merrifield over Marsh? Marsh had a .717 OPS a year ago in 110 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, a drastic improvement over the meager .486 mark he posted the prior season against southpaws. But Merrifield gives the Phillies the chance to protect Marsh and Stott against tough lefties, which Fried would certainly qualify as.

No. 9: Johan Rojas, CF

This was a difficult decision. Since going 2-for-4 in his first Grapefruit League game of the year on Feb. 24, Rojas has just three hits in 32 at-bats (.094). Granted, Rojas is making adjustments to his offensive approach, and the Phillies are having him focus on trying to get a bunt down once a game. But it’s been ugly, and there’s certainly a case to be made for sending him to Triple-A and keeping both Cristian Pache and Jake Cave (or non-roster invitee David Dahl) on the Opening Day roster. But if forced to guess, the Phillies will keep Rojas on the MLB roster for his world-class defense, hoping that getting to work directly with hitting coach Kevin Long every day will help him to improve on the fly. How long of a leash Rojas will have remains to be seen.