Categories: Phillies Nuggets with Tim Kelly

Will Aaron Nola be Phillies Opening Day starter? Well, it’s complicated

Aaron Nola is the longest-tenured Phillie. (Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)

PORT CHARLOTTE, Fla – If Aaron Nola turns in Thursday’s pitching line on March 28, it will be a disappointment. However, on March 7, all that really matters is making it through your start healthy. Nola did that Thursday against the Tampa Bay Rays, as he progresses towards potentially making yet another Opening Day start for the Philadelphia Phillies.

Maybe.

Nola ran into some bad luck with runners in scoring position and two outs in the bottom of the first inning. With one run already across, he induced a slowly-hit ground ball off the bat of Jose Siri, which either should have been fielded for an out or at least knocked down, preventing the runner on second base from scoring.

Instead, it kicked off the glove of third baseman Rodolfo Castro and by shortstop Edmundo Sosa, allowing Siri to reach first and two runs to score. It was scored an infield single, meaning two additional runs were charged to Nola in the top of the first inning. But realistically, it should have been an error on Castro.

Nola would ultimately allow six hits and three earned runs — again, asterisk on two of those runs — over 3 2/3 innings pitched, while striking out six batters.

“I felt good,” Nola said after his start. “My stuff felt good, my body felt good. It took me a minute to get warmed up I felt like in that first inning. They hit a couple balls pretty hard. But overall, felt good.”

The current trends lead you to believe that Nola is going to be the Opening Day starter. If he pitches on every fifth game day for the remainder of Spring Training — the Phillies are off on March 12 — that would put him in line to start on Opening Day against the Atlanta Braves on March 28.

If Nola does indeed take the ball on Opening Day, it would be the seventh consecutive year that he toes the rubber for the Phillies in their season-opener. Hall of Famer Steve Carlton holds the franchise record for Opening Day starts at 14. Even if Nola starts on Opening Day every season over his seven-year/$172 million deal, he would only be at 13. So ever topping or even matching Carlton is unlikely.

However, the most consecutive Opening Day starts Carlton ever made was 10 between 1977 and 1986. Matching or even topping that streak seems like an attainable goal, but only if it isn’t snapped in 2024.

And there are two factors that could make this the year Nola’s Opening Day streak ends.

The first is that Nola himself doesn’t seem especially sentimental about the streak, even endorsing Zack Wheeler to get the ball over him on Opening Day.

“I’m not sure, I don’t know,” Nola said with a chuckle after Thursday’s start. “I think Wheels should take it, I think he’s earned it, man.”

Nola had a similar take after he re-signed with the Phillies in November. For all that Wheeler has accomplished since joining the Phillies in 2020, he’s never made an Opening Day start. And considering most people think he’s one of the top-five pitchers in the game, perhaps Wheeler deserves to finally get an opportunity. But Wheeler just made his Spring Training debut on Tuesday, so the Phillies would have to adjust his schedule kind of drastically to put him in line for March 28 to be a day for him to go full throttle.

But even if Plan A for manager Rob Thomson is to have Nola take the ball on March 28 against the Braves, he’s going to need to have a Plan B in place. Nola and his wife, Hunter, are expecting their first child. The due date is April 4. With that timeline, it’s possible Nola doesn’t start the first or second game of the season.

“I mean, that’s stuff’s great and all, but I don’t know, baby might be on the way,” Nola added, with a laugh. “So we just gotta figure out when that little one is coming, it might be around that day.”

For his part, Thomson declined to get into the Opening Day debate much after Thursday’s game. It’s something he’s thought about, but Thomson said “there’s a long way to go.”

If you’re betting, well, there’s a reason most bettors lose money. Nola is probably the favorite for the reasons he outlined, but certainly doesn’t seem like someone who would miss the birth of his first child to take the mound on Opening Day. And if it’s not him? Maybe Wheeler will be the guy, but Ranger Suárez, who is set to pitch against the Houston Astros Friday, might actually make more sense logistically.

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The Nuggets

Taijaun Walker (right knee soreness) is set to throw either a touch and feel or bullpen Friday, Thomson said, admitting he wasn’t sure which one. If that goes well, he could throw live batting practice Monday, or even be an option to pitch against the New York Yankees that day.

Johan Rojas went 1-for-4 Thursday, scalding a single in his fourth at-bat, but looking very much like the player who was overmatched at the plate last postseason during his first three. This is what Thomson had to say postgame about the center fielder.

“Yeah, he’s still working through his mechanics,” Thomson said. “He got the fourth at-bat today and hit the ball hard finally, and you can’t question the defense. But he’s still working through his mechanics.”

If the Phillies decide that the best thing for Rojas’ development is for him to get at-bats at Triple-A Lehigh Valley to open the season, Brandon Marsh could play in center field, with Whit Merrifield getting at-bats in left field. Both Cristian Pache and Jake Cave are also internal options capable of playing all three outfield positions.

Speaking of Marsh (arthroscopic left knee surgery), he remains on track to be ready for Opening Day. The plan was for him get some at-bats in an intrasquad game Thursday, and then again on Saturday.