The latest on Taijuan Walker’s return

Taijuan Walker is on the injured list with right shoulder soreness. (Don Otto/Phillies Nation)

The Phillies are playing it safe and pushing back Taijuan Walker’s eventual return.

Walker (right shoulder soreness) threw a bullpen session prior to Friday’s series opener against the Chicago White Sox. It went well, but the Phillies will have him make one last minor league rehab start this Sunday in Scranton with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs.

“Even though he feels great, looks great, just talking through with him, we just want to be safe,” manager Rob Thomson said. “Make sure he’s OK and put another 10-15 pitches on him, so he’s going to go full pitch count.”

The plan heading into Friday was for Walker to throw a bullpen session and then come off the injured list and make his first start of the season during the upcoming road series against the Cincinnati Reds.

Walker made one start with Clearwater on April 11 and another with Lehigh Valley on April 16. He reached 78 pitches in his last outing and expects to get to 95 pitches. His first start with the Phillies will likely take place next weekend in San Diego against the Padres. He will replace Spencer Turnbull in the rotation. Turnbull will then go to the bullpen and work as the Phillies’ long man.

Thomson said Walker’s velocity “looked good” during the bullpen session but did not give specifics. Walker averaged 91.1 mph on his four-seam fastball in his last rehab outing on April 16.

Walker believes that the velocity will eventually be back in the 93-94 mph range, but for now, he will work with what he has.

“The goal is to get outs,” Walker said. “No matter how you get them, as long as you get outs. If I’m 93-94 and it gets outs, cool. But if 90-92 gets outs, cool too. I could be 94-95 and give up home runs and hits and stuff. And I can be 92 getting outs. I think the biggest thing is getting outs.”

2023 was a year of mixed results for Walker. He was one of the team’s best pitchers during a stretch from late May to early August. From May 21 to Aug. 6, Walker had a 2.74 ERA in 14 starts. He was in the conversation for a spot in that year’s All-Star Game in Seattle.

His best month came in June, which happened to be the time where his average fastball velocity consistently sat at around 93 mph. In his June 6 and 11 starts, Walker’s average fastball velocity was above 93 mph. He allowed zero earned runs in both starts. The velocity ticked down to the low 90s by July, but he maintained his effectiveness. As the fastball velocity began to dip, going as low as 88.5 mph as he battled through seven innings of four-run ball against the Kansas City Royals on Aug. 6, the results took a hit. In his last eight starts of the season following the Royals game, Walker had a 5.48 ERA.

“That was the first time where I’ve ever had velocity dips like that,” Walker said. “Especially that low. I had to lean more on the sinker, the cutter, the slider and the splitter. It was frustrating because I didn’t know. My body felt great and it was just like, ‘What’s going on?’ But now going into it, I know I gotta pitch first.”

There will be some pressure on Walker to perform well out of the gate. The Phillies’ top three of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suárez are not going anywhere. The same goes with Cristopher Sánchez, who seems to be getting better after a breakout year in 2023.

Turnbull has pitched to a 1.80 ERA in three starts as Walker’s replacement. If the top four remains healthy and Walker struggles in his first few starts, the Phillies could re-insert Turnbull into the rotation and move Walker to the bullpen.

“That’s the hard part too, you know,” Walker said. “I have to make sure I’m ready to come back and help them out. Everyone’s pitching so well and everyone is doing their job. I just gotta make sure I’m ready to join them and help out.”

What happens with Turnbull in his start Friday against the White Sox will have no bearing on the eventual decision to replace him in the rotation with Walker, according to Thomson.

Turnbull, who hasn’t thrown more than 56 2/3 innings in a season since 2019, was never going to be someone who can stick in the rotation for an entire season. The Phillies see him as a guy that can pitch a little over 100 innings this year as both a starter and a reliever, but they have to be cautious. He missed all of 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and most of 2023 with a neck injury.

It’s a very good problem to have. As the rest of the league struggles to find pitchers to make starts, the Phillies have something they haven’t had in years: options.