Categories: Phillies Nuggets with Tim Kelly

With 251 home runs down, could Kyle Schwarber get to 500?

Could Kyle Schwarber reach 500 home runs?(Don Otto/Phillies Nation)

Kyle Schwarber trotted around the basepaths at Citizens Bank Park after hitting a leadoff home run in the bottom of the first inning of Wednesday evening’s Philadelphia Phillies win over the Colorado Rockies. It was his 250th career home run, and it left you to wonder whether he’s got 250 more in him.

Before the night was out, he crushed his 251st career home run, a blast off the facing of the second deck. So, it’s only 249 more he needs to 500:

At the end of the 2023 season, it would have been hard to imagine Schwarber holding up long enough to get close to 500 home runs. Granted, he launched a career-high 47 home runs last regular season, and added five more in the playoffs. But for much of the season, it was apparent to anyone who walked by Schwarber that even if he was downplaying it, his right knee had greatly limited his mobility. He had previously torn the ACL and LCL in his left knee while with the Chicago Cubs in April of 2016, only to make a heroic return in time to help his team win the World Series.

Even as he continued to mash home runs a year ago, it felt like maybe we were witnessing Schwarber’s lower-body begin to break down, which is especially problematic for a power hitter.

Schwarber didn’t undergo any offseason procedure on his right knee, but whatever rehab the 31-year-old slugger did appears to have done wonders. Not only is Schwarber thinner this season, he’s noticeably fleeter of foot when running the bases. Phillies manager Rob Thomson has repeatedly said that Schwarber will see some time in left field in 2024. However, after posting -21 defensive runs saved and -19 outs above average in 872 1/3 innings at left field a season ago, Schwarber has exclusively been the DH so far in 2024. How much healthier he looks without having played in the field may make the Phillies think twice about having him grab his glove more than a couple times a month this season.

The noticeable improvement in health from Schwarber and the Phillies commitment to having him be their primary DH could mean both his peak and career last a bit longer than it appeared a year ago. And that may mean he can challenge 500 home runs. Certainly, 400 feels attainable.

Is getting to 400 or even 500 something that’s crossed Schwarber’s mind?

“I don’t know,” Schwarber admitted postgame. “We’ll see whenever that last day is and wherever we’re at.”

Without being dismissive, Schwarber quickly turned the conversation back towards his primary goal.

“I’m really more focused on, I wanna try to get another championship ring. More than one,” Schwarber said. “Don’t get me wrong, there’s obviously accomplishments that you want to reach in the game, but for me, being able to have a ring and reach that goal, there’s just nothing that can top that.”

Fair enough. But even if it’s not something Schwarber has thought much about, trying to project exactly how many home runs he’ll finish his career with is still a fun and worthwhile exercise.

Schwarber homered 46 times for the Phillies in 2022, and 47 in 2023. Let’s say he hits 40 this year, and 35 in 2025. That would leave him with 321 career home runs entering his age-33 season. If he averages 30 home runs a year for five more seasons after that, he would be at 471. Will Schwarber still be hitting 30 home runs a season in all of his age-33 through 37 seasons? Maybe not, but it’s also possible at the front end of that he’s still more like a 35-home run guy, so things even out if he hits 25 home runs in the last year or two of that run.

Projected Home Run Totals

2024: 40

2025: 35

2026-2030: 30 per season, 150 total

The permanent adoption of the universal DH in 2022 will buy Schwarber a few extra years on his career. Whether it buys him enough healthy campaigns remains to be seen. He’ll probably have to be a full-time hitter into his late-30s to have a realistic shot at 500. The odds are stacked against any player doing that.

The most likely outcome is that Schwarber will comfortably top 400 home runs, and maybe even 450. There are recent examples of sluggers who finished with similar power outputs as Schwarber is on pace for, such as Nelson Cruz (464 career home runs), Adam Dunn (462 career home runs) and Edwin Encarnación (424 career home runs). It would be a great accomplishment to have a career compared to any of those three power brokers.

But there’s a reason that members of the 500 Home Run Club — at least pre-Steroid Era — were pretty much guaranteed to be Hall of Famers. Being able to hit for power at an elite clip over a 15-20 year period is very difficult. Plenty of excellent power hitters, including the three mentioned above, have gotten to to 400 home runs. Even fewer got to 450. And an even smaller chunk were able to hit a 500th home run in their career.

On the night of Schwarber’s 250th and 251st home runs, he feels certain to get to 400. Even 450 could be doable. 500 probably wouldn’t be a smart bet, but when you consider the clip Schwarber has homered at since joining the Phillies, there’s at least an outside possibility.