Taijuan Walker will return to the Philadelphia Phillies starting rotation Sunday at Petco Park against the San Diego Padres. But it can be argued that the 31-year-old is in a no-win situation.
Of course, regardless of how Walker pitches, he’ll make $18 million in 2024. And then again in 2025. And 2026. We should all be so unlucky.
But the belief is that with Walker returning from a shoulder injury, Spencer Turnbull — he of the 1.33 ERA, the second-lowest mark among starters in the National League — will go to the bullpen. And almost regardless of what happens, Walker is going to be a downgrade over what Turnbull has been, as just about anyone would.
Nonetheless, Walker’s lucrative contract has assured he will get his spot back in the rotation after opening the season on the injured list. However, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was pretty matter of fact in discussing Walker’s upcoming return.
“Now it’s up to him to go out and pitch well,” Dombrowski said to MLB.com‘s Todd Zolecki. “Nothing comes in perpetuity, right? He’s earned the ability to do that. But now he has to go out and perform. We think he will. If he doesn’t, then we’ll tackle it at that time.”
Turnbull is a veteran of Tommy John surgery and hasn’t pitched more than 56 2/3 innings at the MLB level since the 2019 season. He’s already thrown 27 innings in 2024. Walker’s return could prove to be a blessing in disguise both for the 2024 Phillies — who will probably need Turnbull to start again at some point — and the right-hander, who surely has eyes on getting more than $2 million guaranteed on the free-agent market next offseason.
But setting Turnbull aside for a moment, there are legitimate concerns to be had about Walker. Yes, there’s absolutely value in any pitcher who logs 172 2/3 innings, as Walker did a year ago. However, Walker struggled with his velocity early in games a season ago, finishing with an unsightly 7.04 ERA in the first inning. The veteran’s early-game struggles are the major reason why manager Rob Thomson didn’t use him at all in the postseason, despite Walker being on the roster for all three rounds of the playoffs that the Phillies played in. Walker, as you certainly remember, was unhappy with his role — or lack thereof — in last year’s playoff run.
The question is, what’s really changed? Walker sat in the high-80s or low-90s with his fastball in Spring Training and during his three rehab outings. He struck out six total batters across 15 minor-league innings over three rehab starts. The best-case scenario for Walker and the Phillies is probably a pretty similar outcome as last year — he eats a ton of innings in the regular season but doesn’t have much of a role in the playoffs, if one at all.
This time around, though, Walker has a fanbase circling that’s unhappy that he’s replacing Turnbull in the rotation, and an organization that would probably like a mulligan on his contract. That doesn’t feel like a recipe for success.
What will the Phillies do if Walker doesn’t perform at an acceptable level? Possibly ride things out for this season and try to cut their losses one way or another — while still being on the hook for most or all of his remaining money — in the offseason. In the meantime, Walker is fighting an uphill battle to keep things from getting ugly. It’s perhaps unfair, but it’s the reality of signing a big contract to play in Philadelphia.
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