Categories: Phillies Nuggets with Tim Kelly

Phillies rotation looks like baseball’s best in dominant homestand

Aaron Nola and the Phillies rotation have been dominant. (Cody Glenn/Icon Sportswire)

Aaron Nola logged eight innings in Sunday afternoon’s win over the Chicago White Sox, limiting opposing hitters to just four hits and two earned runs, while striking out seven batters. Given that he only threw 91 pitches, Nola very easily could have gone back out for the ninth inning under different circumstances.

And yet, Nola might have turned in the worst start of the weekend by Phillies pitchers, which is saying something.

Friday night, Spencer Turnbull took a no-hitter into the seventh inning, ultimately allowing just one hit over seven innings pitched in a shutout victory over the White Sox. Turnbull — signed for just $2 million guaranteed in February — has a 1.23 ERA after his first four starts in red pinstripes, the fifth-lowest mark among all qualified starters in baseball.

Saturday night, Zack Wheeler didn’t allow his first hit until his 106th and final pitch of the night, which came with one out in the top of the eighth inning in a 9-5 Phillies win. There’s a strong case to be made that Wheeler’s been the best pitcher in the NL so far. Among senior circuit pitchers, only Tyler Glasnow of the Los Angeles Dodgers has logged more innings than Wheeler’s 31 1/3. The 1.1 WAR that Wheeler has posted so far is tied with Kutter Crawford of the Boston Red Sox for the best mark among all starting pitchers, according to FanGraphs.

Even if Wheeler and Glasnow have probably been the top top pitchers so far in the NL, Ranger Suárez has looked the part of an ace so far in 2024. He pitched a complete-game shutout against the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday, and now has a 3-0 record with a 1.73 ERA, 2.73 FIP and 0.8 WAR through his first four starts of the season.

Cristopher Sánchez feels like the forgotten man here, but he has a 2.53 ERA and meager 2.01 FIP over 21 1/3 innings pitched this season. His success from a year ago appears to have carried over into 2024, and given that Sánchez won’t even become eligible for arbitration until 2026, he might be one of the best values of any player in the sport currently with a $753,500 salary.

Manager Rob Thomson admitted before Sunday’s game — while knocking on his wooden desk — that he doesn’t remember being part of a rotation that’s had as dominant of a stretch as the Phillies have over the last week to 10 days.

“I can’t remember [a better stretch],” Thomson said. “They’ve really pitched well. They have. So well, that it’s tough to get some relievers work.”

Over the course of a 162-game season, there will come a point where the Phillies bullpen is taxed. It happened during the first homestand of the year, and certainly it will again. But for the starting five to have been so dominant that Thomson almost had to go out of his way to not let Nola throw a complete game Sunday so Yunior Marte could get his first inning of work in four days is pretty remarkable.

What’s made the run so special is not just the dominance, but the length the Phillies are getting out of their starters.

“It’s been cool, it’s been really fun to watch. I love watching our guys, they’re studs and they’re nasty too,” Nola said postgame when asked to reflect on the starting pitching’s success during the six-game winning streak.

“And I love them going deep into games too,” Nola continued. “I love seeing that. I think that’s kind of like a goal for us, and the coaching staff is on board with it. We just know how important it is to save the bullpen for later on. It’s a long season and there are gonna be ups and downs. Not every series is going to be like this, like the ones we had the last two. But we all feel good right now and it’s been fun to watch those guys do their thing and get the wins.”

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A few things are about to change, which will test the rotation.

First of all, the Phillies don’t get to endlessly play the White Sox and Rockies. It’s good that the Phillies took care of business on this 10-game homestand, going 8-2 and winning six in a row to finish. Beating really bad teams shouldn’t be taken for granted. But don’t get it twisted, even if the Pittsburgh Pirates end up having a decent season, this was about as favorable of a homestand as you could get. The Rockies won Sunday to improve to 5-16. After getting swept by the Phillies, the White Sox are now 3-18 with a -71 run differential, looking the part of one of the worst teams in MLB history.

Also, ready or not, Taijuan Walker is likely to rejoin the rotation on this upcoming roadtrip. The box score from Walker’s Triple-A rehab start Sunday isn’t that impressive, as he allowed seven hits and four earned runs over 6 1/3 innings, striking out only one batter. But both he and Thomson spoke Friday afternoon, and it sounded like barring any physical setbacks, Sunday would be the third and final rehab outing for Walker.

Walker is in the second season of a four-year/$72 million deal, so when he returns, it’s going to be in the starting rotation. Whether he can learn to pitch effectively with diminished velocity — and overcome the disastrous first-inning results he had a year ago — remains to be seen. But he’s going to get that opportunity.

Thomson hasn’t ruled out going to a six-man rotation that would allow Turnbull to remain in the mix. But having listened to him discuss the topic multiple times over the course of the homestand, the guess here is Turnbull will move to the bullpen for the time being. He’s a veteran of Tommy John surgery, and hasn’t pitched more than 56 2/3 innings at the MLB level since 2019. There is a reality here of trying to save some bullets for later in the season, either when an injury or underperformance opens up consistent starts again.

So maybe the 2024 Phillies shouldn’t be mentioned in the same breath as the club’s 2011 rotation — which saw Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels all finish in the top five in NL Cy Young Award voting — just yet. But so far, this rotation has been tremendous, and it’s a major reason why the Phillies are off to a 14-8 start.