Categories: Phillies Nuggets with Tim Kelly

The window is never going to be more open for the Phillies than it is now

J.T. Realmuto, Zack Wheeler and the Phillies are off to a strong start in 2024. (John Adams/Icon Sportswire)

Even after losing two of three games this past weekend at Coors Field, the Philadelphia Phillies have the best record in baseball at 38-16. They’ve gone from being a team that was in the World Series discussion before the season, to one that’s World-Series-or-bust in 2024.

You never root for injuries, particularly to the biggest stars in the sport, but there is a reality that as other teams struggle to stay healthy, they become much less imposing foes for the Phillies.

Clearly that’s true of the Atlanta Braves, who learned Sunday that they will be without reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., who suffered a season-ending tear to the ACL in his left knee Sunday in Pittsburgh. The Braves had already lost ace Spencer Strider — a leading NL Cy Young candidate — to a season-ending internal brace procedure on his pitching elbow.

No one is suggesting that the Braves, currently 30-20, are going to fall off a cliff. Of course, they won a World Series three years ago without Acuña, who tore the ACL in his right knee in July of that season. But even if Matt Olson heats up, the Braves get Austin Riley back from the injuried list and the rotation duo of Max Fried and Chris Sale is able to stay healthy, there’s no way they won’t be a worse team without Acuña and Strider. It would be like if the Phillies lost Bryce Harper and Zack Wheeler for the year.

If they hadn’t already become the favorites to win the NL East by virtue of their hot start, the Phillies certainly seem likely to end Atlanta’s streak of six consecutive division titles in 2024 now. If the Phillies do indeed win their first division title since 2011, they will presumably claim one of the top two spots in the NL playoff seeding, earning them a first-round bye in the postseason.

The Braves, among other teams, have struggled to deal with time off by virtue of the bye over the last two years. That’s a challenge the Phillies may have to deal with in 2024. The reality, though, is not playing in the NLWCS allows you to set your rotation up for the NLDS, while not taxing your bullpen and not taking the chance you lose in the opening round. If there’s rust to shake off in the NLDS, that’s still worth it to get to bypass the first round of the postseason.

There are plenty of other things you can point to as to why the Phillies are better set up to win this year than they were in 2022 or 2023, and probably than they will be in 2025 or 2026. For as loaded as the top of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ lineup is, there are legitimate questions about their starting rotation, which doesn’t have the benefit of Shohei Ohtani pitching in 2024. With all due respect to what’s been a strong start by the Milwaukee Brewers, it’s fair to wonder if the NL Central has a true World Series contender. In the NL West, last year’s Cinderella team, the Arizona Diamondbacks, are 25-28, despite a very active offseason.

Potential postseason opponents aside, this year has been the perfect storm for the Phillies so far. In addition to a team loaded with established stars, Ranger Suárez, Alec Bohm, Matt Strahm and Jeff Hoffman are all having career years. Hoffman can become a free agent after the 2024 season, so there’s no guarantee he’s in red pinstripes after this season. Suárez and Strahm could become free agents after the 2025 season (although there is a club/vesting option in the latter’s contract that could keep him in Philadelphia in 2026). And in terms of the established core, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Schwarber, Aaron Nola and Nick Castellanos are all in their early-to-mid-30s. You will only get so many cracks with this group.

There is a balance to be struck here by president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. The Phillies have been hesitant to part with notable prospect capital since he’s taken over the top spot in the front office. Managing partner John Middleton has shown a willingness to spend more money than 95% of the league in order to win. But certainly, the Phillies hope that they can build a pipeline of cheap, young talent that supplements the establish veterans, and perhaps even become stars in their own right after the window closes on this current crew. That would help prevent the type of drastic fall off a cliff the Phillies had after the 2007-2011 run.

At the same time, 2007-2011 produced a World Series win, and flags fly forever. The Phillies have knocked on the door the last two years, but not been able to get over the hump to win the third World Series in franchise history. Knowing what a title would mean for the legacy of this era — and his own legacy, for that matter — maybe Dombrowski will be more willing to part with prospect capital in advance of the July 30 trade deadline than he has been the last two years. The window is never going to be more open than it is right now.