Categories: Analysis

With hot start, Alec Bohm already has hit new career-high in WAR

Alec Bohm has had a great start to 2024. (Don Otto/Phillies Nation)

Over the last several years, people have been waiting for, and expecting, an Alec Bohm breakout season. It didn’t happen in 2022 or 2023. Bohm was a good player in each of those seasons. He was a contributor on two good Phillies teams. But neither were breakout campaigns.

But Bohm is off to a great start this year. It’s still too early to tell whether or not this is the year he finally breaks out, putting together a full season’s worth of star-level production. But his impressive start does deserve recognition.

Bohm has been particularly hot at the plate over the last two weeks. He’s currently in the midst of a 15-game hitting streak — tied for his career-high. His knack for hitting with runners in scoring position has continued. He’s currently hitting .455/.525/.758 in such situations.

But perhaps the most impressive mark so far is his wins above replacement. According to FanGraphs, Bohm’s WAR is already a career-high.

Bohm’s WAR is currently 1.9 through 32 games. He played in 152 games two years ago and amassed a 1.4 WAR. He hit the same mark last year across 145 games. Going back further, Bohm put together a 1.3-win season during his rookie year of 2020 when he appeared in 44 games. His WAR in 2021 was 0.0.

The reason for Bohm’s 1.9 WAR so far this year is mainly due to his offensive production. He’s walking more than he ever has. He’s slugging more, too. Altogether, he’s been the full package at the dish.

So far, Bohm is hitting .362/.432/.586 with 12 doubles and four home runs. His batting average ranks second among qualified major-league hitters. His on-base percentage is third, while his slugging percentage is seventh. He trails only Shohei Ohtani for the most two-baggers in the majors.

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When it comes to WAR, Bohm is tied for fourth in the majors with Bobby Witt Jr., who many view as a superstar in the making, if he’s not one already. The three players ahead of Bohm in WAR? Mookie Betts, Juan Soto and Gunnar Henderson — three of the best players in baseball.

Bohm is also toward the top of the sport in RBIs. His 30 RBIs rank second behind only Marcell Ozuna’s 32. That total is the most ever by a Phillies hitter during the season’s first month. The previous record was Ryan Howard’s 27 back in March/April of 2011.

Bohm’s improvements at the plate are partially due to his increased selectivity. He’s chasing fewer pitches this year. He’s also swinging less. According to Statcast, Bohm’s chase rate last year was 30%. This year, it’s dropped to 22.5%. Last year, he swung at 68.9% of the pitches he saw in the strike zone. So far, that mark has dropped a bit to 66.8%. It’s only a small drop off, but Bohm is seemingly making an effort to swing only at pitches he knows he can drive. In the past, he’d see strikes and just swing at them, sometimes resulting in weakly hit balls for outs.

Outside of his offense, Bohm’s defense, which also contributes to his WAR, has been around league average. He’s currently at -2 defensive runs saved and 0 outs above average at third base, per FanGraphs.

Overall, it’s been an incredible start for Bohm. However much value you place in WAR, setting a new career-high in the first month of the season is a pretty good indication that he’s been the best hitter for the Phillies thus far.