This is a guest post written by Aram Leighton, the co-founder and executive editor of JustBaseball.com. Aram recently released his updated look at the top 100 prospects in baseball, a list that included four Phillies.
There’s been few executives more aggressive than Dave Dombrowski over the last few decades. Famously willing to push the chips forward in the name of a World Series title, the Phillies president of baseball operations already has two to his name and has to feel within an arm’s reach of a third.
Tied with the Yankees for baseball’s best record, the Phillies look like an even more complete team than the ball club that lost the World Series in 2022 and was one game away from their second consecutive Fall Classic appearance in 2023.
As cliche as it sounds, the Phillies truly may be one impactful piece away from getting over that final hump and Dombrowski has the resources to go get that piece. Over the last couple seasons, the Phillies farm was among the bottom third of the league when you look at overall talent and depth, but strong drafting and some impressive international free agents have the farm looking as talented as it has in years.
So the question becomes, who should the Phillies be willing to move and if there’s such thing as an “untouchable” prospect for the Dombrowski, who should those players be?
Let’s start with the untouchables. Right-handed pitcher Andrew Painter is currently on the mend from Tommy John surgery, but the 21-year-old flame thrower quickly ascended to become one of baseball’s best pitching prospects and won’t require much more development once he returns to action.
With the struggles of Mick Abel and Griff McGarry, Painter becomes that much more essential to the future of the team. It would be really tough to justify moving Painter in just about any scenario.
2023 first rounder Aidan Miller is also toeing that “untouchable” line as he continues to shine in his first full pro season. Swing adjustments heading into the season have allowed the shortstop to leverage his elite bat speed and make more contact.
Just Baseball’s No. 57 overall prospect, Miller will likely continue to climb up the ranks as he produces against more challenging competition, but all indications point towards the success continuing. Considering the state of the big league club and how far off Miller is, he’s less essential from a sustained success perspective.
That said, he’s clearly a special talent and should only be moved in a select few situations. If Luis Robert and his multiple years of control were were indeed on the table, it would be more than palatable to part with their Low-A shortstop; however a top-flight reliever or even the most exciting rental bat on the market would not be worth shipping out a player like Miller.
The next grouping of prospects is probably the guys you ambitiously push in a deal for a star, but should not move for a rental.
Sure-handed shortstop Starlyn Caba has become one of my favorite prospects at the lower levels. Just Baseball’s No. 71 prospect, Caba is a switch hitter with great contact skills and an advanced approach, along with speed and at least gap to gap power. The performance of Miller and the Phillies desire to keep him at shortstop may make Caba more expendable, especially since he is even further off.
Caba’s higher floor relative to most of his peers puts him ahead of a prospect who may have a higher ceiling like Justin Crawford. The Phillies 2022 first rounder boasts exciting potential as an elite runner who already hits the ball hard, but struggles to elevate and is extremely aggressive.
The implied volatility of Crawford makes him the most moveable despite his name recognition. Still, Crawford is above a trade for a singular rental like Tyler O’Neill, though if the Red Sox also sent over a high-leverage reliever and the Phillies are still baseball’s best team, trading Crawford could be a palatable all-in move.
A top-flight closer like Ryan Helsley of the Cardinals with a year of control after the 2024 season would be another instance where parting with Crawford would make more sense as the team would get two chances to win with the talented stopper.
Mick Abel falls to 96
— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) June 4, 2024
Abel has been frustrating. The stuff has long been great, but the command inconsistent. This year, the stuff has taken a step back.
Stuff is down more than two ticks across the board while still struggling to throw strikes. Bad combo.
Mick Abel’s pedigree puts him right on the edge of a guy who should be traded for a short-term solution, while his concerning 2024 campaign and prolonged command issues could be enough for the Phillies to move him rather than one of the aforementioned bats.
The problem is, Abel isn’t just pitching poorly, he’s pitching diminished. His velocity is down more than two ticks across the board, which would likely be a red flag to many teams. Do the Phillies want to sell low on a 22-year-old who has flashed so much promise since they drafted him in the first round of the 2020 draft?
If a team were hypothetically willing to take Abel over any of the aforementioned bats, you run with that, though that seems unlikely at this moment. Selling low on Abel is acceptable when he is a part of the package that gets you a Robert type.
It’s difficult to assess the Abel situation not being in the building, but if the Phillies front office has serious doubt about his ability to throw strikes and are concerned about the diminished stuff then maybe they’d consider moving him for an impact rental, though that still seems unlikely.
As anything, the value is in the eye of the beholder and a Red Sox organization that has become an impressive pitching developer of late under Craig Breslow and Andrew Bailey could see Mick Abel as a valuable opportunity to acquire more projectable pitching.
Other complementary pieces who the Phillies could consider selling “high” on include George Klassen and Spencer Aldegheri. Both have been very impressive this season with Klassen possessing reliever risk and Aldegheri likely limited upside wise. They are perfect candidates to be cashed in for a rental type.
It will be interesting to see how the Phillies navigate the deadline. Dombrowski has been quiet for his standards the last two summers and the Phillies are playing the best ball they have since he took over. If I were a betting man, I’d wager Painter and Miller stand pat, but that’s all I’d be comfortable risking.
MORE FROM PHILLIES NATION
- Phillies 2024 Walk-Up Songs
- Rob Thomson On Taijuan Walker: ‘I Trust Him’
- David Dahl Gets Full Phillies Experience On ‘Surreal’ First Night With Team
- Rhys Hoskins Hopes First Trip Back Is Start Of Turning Page On Time In Philadelphia
- Edmundo Sosa’s Hot Streak Could Force Phillies To Get Creative
- Back At Citizens Bank Park, FOX’s Joe Davis Reflects On Postseason Of His Life In 2022
- ‘I Hope It Doesn’t Happen’: Phillies Weigh In On Automated Strike Zone
- Orion Kerkering Keeps Adapting — To A New Pitch Mix, New Game Situations And Big League Travel
- As Angel Hernandez Retires, Comically-Bad 2022 Phillies Game Stands Out As Career-Defining Night
- Phillies 2024 Giveaway Schedule
Latest Comments