Categories: Phillies Nuggets with Tim Kelly

Should Phillies be concerned by José Alvarado’s finish to first half?

Jose Alvarado’s first half was a mixed bag. (Grace Del Pizzo/Phillies Nation)

Prior to the season, FanGraphs ranked the Philadelphia Phillies as having the No. 1 bullpen in baseball in terms of projected WAR for the 2024 season.

It was a prediction that immediately found it’s way to Old Takes Exposed when the Phillies melted down in an Opening Day loss to the Atlanta Braves, with José Alvarado struggling the most, allowing five earned runs in an appearance where he threw just 15 of his 30 pitches for strikes.

However, it’s best not to draw sweeping conclusions on how a 162-game season will go after one game. The Phillies have baseball’s best record, and, as FanGraphs predicted, are among the best bullpens in baseball. Their 4.7 WAR from relievers is second only to the Cleveland Guardians.

Obviously, All-Stars Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm — who are second and third in WAR among relievers, trailing only Oakland Athletics closer Mason Miller — are the biggest reason for that. But between April and June, Alvarado posted a 1.95 ERA across 34 appearances. The Guardians and Milwaukee Brewers both have excellent bullpens, but unlike the Phillies, don’t have the rotations to match. Having an elite bullpen trio to pair with the best starting rotation in baseball gave the Phillies a unique advantage that carried them for much of the first half.

However, Alvarado struggled over his final five games of the first half, allowing seven hits, five earned runs and four walks. He was particularly ineffective in his final appearance before the All-Star Break, walking two, allowing two hits and one earned run, before ultimately finishing off a win over the A’s by striking out Brent Rooker to strand the bases loaded.

Still, the way that Alvarado pitched in the handful of appearances before the All-Star Break can’t have left a great taste in the mouths of the Phillies given his importance to the team’s October goals.

Manager Rob Thomson was asked following last Saturday’s win over Oakland what he’s seen from the powerful left-handed reliever leading into the break.

“Missing the strike zone,” Thomson acknowledged. “I think he’s feeling for the baseball, feeling for the zone a little bit.”

In fairness to Alvarado, when he started warming up, it was a save situation, with the Phillies up 7-4. The Phillies scored four runs in the bottom of the eighth inning, so Alvarado ultimately came into a much lower-leverage situation than he normally does.

“That wasn’t really an ideal situation for him,” Thomson continued. “You see guys at the back end of a game go out and get work in. That wasn’t the case today. It was more about preserving pitchers for tomorrow. And once we got him hot in the ninth in the save situation, we just said ‘OK, he might be down tomorrow anyway because it would be three out of four. Might as well just pitch him.’ And then he put all those pitches on himself.

“So sometimes when there’s no tension, no adrenaline for those guys at the back-end, it’s a little tougher to pitch.”

Sunday morning, Thomson confirmed that Alvarado came in feeling normally before the first-half finale, which he didn’t pitch in.

“Yeah, he’s fine, he’s fine,” Thomson said. “He’s just a little off right now. I think the break is coming at the right time for a lot of guys.”

Will the Phillies move forward with Jose Alvarado getting most save opportunities? (Grace Del Pizzo/Phillies Nation)

The rate that Alvarado has been used at — 41 appearances — hasn’t felt like the Phillies are running him into the ground. If anything, the Phillies have been able to preserve their bullpen for much of the 2024 season because of how consistently their starting staff has pitched deep into games. However, Alvarado made 42 total appearances last regular season, spending two separate stints on the injured list with left elbow inflammation. So it will be important to manage his workload as the season goes along.

But there are other trends worth watching in the second half of the season for Alvarado beyond just the typical load management.

Alvarado isn’t missing nearly as many bats this season. Alvarado posted a 14.29 K/9 in 2022, and 13.94 in 2023. In 2024, he has a 9.23 K/9.

He’s allowed seven barreled balls this season, as opposed to 11 combined between 2022 and 2023.

The average velocity on his sinker has dipped a bit, going from 98.7 mph on average a year ago to 97.8 mph in 2024. That alone isn’t particularly concerning, but what is — and what probably explains the drop in K/9, at least to some degree — is the sinker has a 12.9% whiff rate this year. A year ago, the sinker had a 24.6% whiff rate. Considering Alvarado has used the sinker 60.1% of the time this year, that type of drop in swings and misses is concerning.

Between Hoffman being an All-Star and the aforementioned productive stretch that Alvarado had from April-June, calls for the Phillies to trade for a closer have mostly quieted. Alvarado has 13 saves in 15 attempts, while Hoffman has converted nine of his 12 attempts. Mixing and matching between the eighth and ninth innings with Hoffman and Alvarado has largely been a successful strategy.

Of course, this Phillies team is ultimately going to be judged by what happens in October. The book ends of Alvarado’s season so far have been concerning, even if what was sandwiched in between them was very good. Finding a way to increase the effectiveness of the sinker is going to be crucial for Alvarado, who could very well find himself on a mound trying to close out a World Series in a few months, looking for a final whiff or two.