The Phillies should do — almost — whatever it takes to acquire A’s closer Mason Miller
Trea Turner had a 2-2 count in his third plate appearance in the All-Star Game when a 103 mph fastball came in on his hands. He paused, got back in the box and took a called third strike two pitches later on a high slider on the outside corner.
If there was one moment in the game that both terrified and enticed Phillies officials, it was the pitch that could have ended Turner’s season. Then again, there are only a handful of star pitchers in the league that have the guts to pitch inside with that kind of velocity to a hitter of Turner’s caliber in an exhibition.
His name is Mason Miller and he could be a prime target for the Phillies at the trade deadline.
Miller, 25, is the best closer with the best stuff in baseball. He has struck out 46.7% of batters faced. Opposing hitters have swung-and-missed at a league-leading 43% of his pitches.
Miller also throws harder than any other pitcher in baseball. Of the 609 pitches he has throw this season, 299 have clocked in at 100 mph or better. He neutralized the Phillies on Friday, reaching 103.7 mph and striking out Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh.
A couple days later, the Phillies reportedly invited Miller and his manager Mark Kotsay to join six of the Phillies’ All-Stars on a private plane ride to Texas for the All-Star Game. Bryce Harper introduced himself and flattered Miller, saying he had no interest in facing him.
It’s not only the velocity that scares superstars like Harper. The command is what makes him special. Of the 299 pitches he has thrown 100 mph or better, 166 (56%) have landed in the strike zone. He has not hit a batter all season, a rarity among triple-digit hurlers.
This is not to suggest the Phillies need another bullpen arm. As constructed, the Phillies have one of the best back end mixes with All-Stars Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm along with José Alvarado and Orion Kerkering. They could realistically ride all four, if healthy, on the way to the World Series. The Texas Rangers did it last season with Aroldis Chapman, Josh Sborz and José Leclerc.
But the Phillies are happy to double down on a strength and make room for a fifth core reliever — preferably one who could throw the final pitch of the season. They have spoken all season about the importance of bullpens in October and their usage — last in the National League in innings pitched and no one pitching three days in a row — back that up.
Embed from Getty ImagesIf there’s one thing that can scare off teams from offering a massive prospect package at the deadline for Miller, it’s the injury history and the inevitability that someone like him will get hurt.
Miller, who began last season as a starter, was diagnosed with a mild UCL sprain in May 2023 and returned in September as a reliever. The Athletics decided to throw him in the bullpen to keep him healthy with the expectation that he could start again in the future and it has more than worked out so far.
Any deal for Miller comes with significant risk and it would be a devastating blow if the Phillies surrendered four to five top prospects only to have his arm blow out in August and miss a year. The A’s, however, have been extremely careful with the way they have used Miller. He has pitched on back-to-back days only three times and has appeared in only 33 games. Kerkering (35), Strahm (39), Alvarado (41) and Hoffman (41) have all pitched in more games than Miller.
The biggest unknown is whether or not Miller is available. He is not eligible for arbitration until 2026 and free agency until 2030. The A’s have a couple years left of Miller making the league minimum before he becomes more expensive, so Oakland — or Sacramento — can set a high asking price.
But there’s also risk in keeping Miller. If the A’s hold on to him and he gets hurt, they may have missed their chance to trade him at his highest value. His value as a trade candidate is high now and it’s hard to imagine it getting any higher, unless he returns to the rotation, stays healthy and looks like another Paul Skenes.
And if you’re the A’s, what exactly is the end game? Miller was drafted in 2021 and is a rookie with multiple years of control. He would be untouchable if he was on any other team, but the A’s are moving into a minor league ballpark next season and could stay there for the next three years before — maybe — moving to Las Vegas in 2028. A’s ownership has done everything to drive away their fanbase. Trading the last ever Oakland Athletics All-Star at the deadline would be a fitting end to the franchise’s time in the Bay Area.
It’s despicable, but the A’s lack of care to field a competitive baseball team could lead to an opportunity for the Phillies. The cost, however, would be massive. As far as prospects in the system go, it’s Aidan Miller, Andrew Painter and everyone else. Acquiring Mason Miller without having to give up one of Aidan Miller or Painter would be a miracle and the Phillies should jump on a trade right now if that was the case.
The reality is that the A’s probably want both and might say yes to letting him go if they get one. The Phillies believe both could be future stars, Painter an ace and Miller a potential cornerstone at shortstop. Both might be too steep of a price to pay, but one is probably fair. If the Phillies see Mason Miller and Painter as similar prospects with Miller having a better time horizon and a chance to start in the future, they may deal Painter. If the Phillies see Aidan Miller as a star worth giving up because he’s likely to emerge as a contributor after the Phillies’ best window of opportunity to win the World Series, they could swap Aidan for Mason.
Or they could say that they have the pitching infrastructure to optimize relievers and trade for a cheaper veteran at the deadline instead. None of their four best relievers were can’t miss prospects or top signings.
Kerkering was drafted in the fifth round in 2022 and climbed his way through the organization. Hoffman signed a minor league deal in 2023 and became one of the best right-handed relievers in baseball. Alvarado was a flawed reliever when the Phillies acquired him and fixed his command two years later. The Phillies were ripped for signing Strahm to a two-year deal in December 2022, but his slider has improved significantly over the last two seasons and he’s now the Phillies’ top option against the best left-handed batters in the league. All were a product of good scouting and coaching.
Miller doesn’t need any fixing. Maybe the Phillies could add a pitch or two or figure out ways to keep him healthy over the long run, but they would be trading for a polished rookie that could help the team now and for the remainder of the decade.
A trade for Miller would also address what I continue to believe to be the biggest reason why they eventually lost in the NLCS against the Diamondbacks. It wasn’t all Craig Kimbrel’s fault. It was the Phillies’ fault for failing to make the most of all 13 roster spots for pitchers in the postseason.
The decision to keep both Taijuan Walker and Michael Lorenzen on the NLCS roster with Rob Thomson having next to no intention of using them both in spots that mattered cost them in Game 4 more than Kimbrel’s blowup.
The Phillies, with Hoffman, Strahm and Seranthony Domínguez already used and one out in the seventh, needed Gregory Soto to get the final two outs, but he instead allowed a single to Geraldo Perdomo and walked Ketel Marte. That forced the Phillies to bring in Kerkering, who allowed back-to-back walks to score a run, but miraculously got out of the inning still with a two-run lead.
Then they went to Kimbrel for the eighth and saved Alvarado for a bottom of the ninth that would never happen. Kimbrel gave up a leadoff double, then allowed the game-tying home run two batters later. Since the Phillies were short on options, Kimbrel faced three more batters before Alvarado allowed the go-ahead run.
Kimbrel’s blowup in Games 3 and 4 will be remembered forever, but the events and decisions that led to Kimbrel not only pitching in the eighth inning of Game 4, but facing three batters after the home run should also be remembered.
Getting another high leverage arm, even if it’s not Miller, will go a long way in making sure the Phillies don’t run out of relievers in a playoff game. There will be more chances for the Phillies to win in the coming years, but 2024 is probably the best shot they will ever have to bring home a championship. Having the best record in baseball allows them to prioritize moves with championship, not playoff probability, in mind. Getting the best reliever in baseball makes them stronger late in games in October, when titles are won and lost.
It’s naive to think that Harper wasn’t thinking about that as he and Miller rode the plane to Texas.
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