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Phillies Nuggets: How much would a Jeff Hoffman extension cost?

Jeff Hoffman can become a free agent after the season. (Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire)

Jeff Hoffman isn’t the closer for the Philadelphia Phillies.

Under manager Rob Thomson, the Phillies have declined to name one pitcher closer, but José Alvarado currently leads the Phillies with 13 saves. However, in each of Hoffman’s last three outings, he’s come in and recorded saves in games where he entered with two-run leads or less, the latest of which came in Friday’s 8-6 win over the Atlanta Braves.

Hoffman isn’t the Phillies closer. But he’s shown the ability to do so if need be. Just like last season he embraced the “garbage man” role of coming into dirty innings and escaping unscathed. Among qualified relievers this season, his 1.5 WAR is second only to Mason Miller of the Oakland Athletics, per FanGraphs. There are so many deserving All-Star candidates on the Phillies, so who knows whether Hoffman will ultimately be selected. But if it was based off of merit, Hoffman would be a slam-dunk All-Star.

Last year, Hoffman was one of the best-kept secrets in baseball — a former first-round pick that had caught the Phillies’ eye when showing off a nasty slider in a live batting practice session against a rehabbing Bryce Harper. There’s no secret anymore. Hoffman is going to be a free agent in the offseason, and there are going to be a slew of teams interested in signing him to be their closer.

Surely, the Phillies will be interested in retaining the 31-year-old righty beyond this season. It’s just a matter of whether they’ll be as motivated to do so as clubs like the Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers, who all will be looking to improve their bullpens next offseason.

The Phillies already have $237.8 million in payroll commitments for the 2025 season, which Spotrac says is the most among all teams in the sport. That’s assuming they decline the $8 million club options on both Seranthony Domínguez and Whit Merrifield’s deals for 2025, instead taking the buyouts that total $1.5 million. It’s also not factoring in arbitration raises for Ranger Suárez, Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh, among others.

To a degree, this is going to depend how much managing partner John Middleton and ownership continue to authorize president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to spend. The first luxury tax threshold in 2025 will be $241 million, a number the Phillies are going to blow by once arbitration-eligible players and any minor additions are added in. The second threshold is $281 million, and the third is $301 million. There are financial penalties for both how much you exceed the thresholds by, and for doing so in consecutive years. There are also draft penalties for repeatedly going over the thresholds, but the Phillies are too far in to turn back in that regard.

Jeff Hoffman can become a free agent after this season. (Grace Del Pizzo/Phillies Nation)

So what would a Hoffman extension look like and how realistic is it that the Phillies will continue to add onto the major long-term investments they’ve already made?

The Los Angeles Angels signed reliever Robert Stephenson to a three-year/$33 million deal last winter after he posted a 2.35 ERA across 42 outings for the Tampa Bay Rays. This was despite Stephenson having a 4.64 career ERA, and having been traded to the Rays after posting a 5.14 ERA in 18 games with the Pittsburgh Pirates to open the 2023 campaign.

Had Hoffman — once traded to the Cincinnati Reds in a deal that sent Stephenson back to the Colorado Rockies — become a free agent last offseason, he likely would have been looking at a deal in that range. Given that he now has a 1.91 ERA and 2.36 FIP over 92 regular-season outings with the Phillies, he’ll clearly be an even more desired free agent this upcoming winter than Stephenson was last year.

Ryan Pressly signed a two-year/$30 million extension with the Houston Astros prior to his age-34 campaign in 2023. Factoring in that Hoffman is a couple years younger and the market in theory goes up with the passage of time, something like a three-year deal between $45 and $50 million with a vesting option at a similar rate for a fourth year feels like it would be fair.

Whether the Phillies would be the ones to give that deal is probably less about whether they think Hoffman has earned it — he, of course, has — and more about just how many remaining resources Dombrowski has and how he believes they will be best utilized.

Dombrowski acknowledged in a conversation with Phillies Nation‘s Destiny Lugardo earlier this season that the club “would love to have a Ranger Suárez in your organization for years to come.” To convince Suárez to avoid testing free agency after the 2025 season, or to woo him back if he does hit the open market, it won’t be cheap. With all due respect to Hoffman, retaining Suárez will almost certainly be the bigger priority.

It’s really a matter of are the Phillies operating with a complete disregard for any of the luxury tax thresholds for a few seasons in pursuit of a World Series, and will that type of approach have an expiration date?

If there is an acknowledgement in the organization that the budget isn’t there to keep everybody, the bullpen might be an area the Phillies would be more willing to gamble with, as opposed to letting Suárez leave in free agency. Are the Phillies going to uncover another Hoffman? Probably not, but Orion Kekering has been really good this year, and perhaps someone like Michael Mercado will be looked upon to take on a larger role in the bullpen in 2025 if Hoffman isn’t retained. You can talk yourself into replacing a reliever — even one pitching at an elite level like Hoffman — easier than an every day position player or a front-line starter.

Back in Spring Training, Hoffman told Phillies Nation that he would “love to be here” beyond the 2024 season, but acknowledged that it’s “out of my control right now.” Surely, the Phillies would be a better team in 2025 with Hoffman than without him. But uncertainty on his status beyond 2024 only makes it more clear that this era of the Phillies will probably never have a better chance to win a World Series than they do right now.